A few months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war had become so dangerous that Jens Stoltenberg went to bed fearing he would be woken by these horrifying words: Vladimir Putin has launched a nuclear attack.
As secretary general of Nato, it would have been his job to consult the US President, the UK prime minister and other allied leaders to agree a collective response.
The idea of nuclear conflict had seemed unthinkable since the end of the Cold War. But based on intelligence Nato received in autumn 2022, it was genuinely “an option that was considered” by the Kremlin, says Stoltenberg.
Official assessments at the time showed that the likelihood of a nuclear weapon being used rose to between 10 and 25 per cent. Putin was feeling more desperate as Ukraine was pushing back its invaders and Nato was providing weapons.
The concern was over Putin using “tactical” nuclear weapons. They are designed to eliminate troops on a battlefield, rather than destroy whole cities.
But they remain devastating – capable of annihilating thousands of people instantly and unleashing radiation that could kill many others in following years.
“Nato sent a very strong message,” says Stoltenberg. “The US sent a very strong message, and as far as we know, China sent a clear message: that a nuclear war can never be won and should never be fought. That was a message that President Putin and Moscow also understood.”
That danger has not disappeared, however. This month, Putin said he was prepared to use “all the weapons at our country’s disposal” to protect Russian territory, while insisting he was “not threatening anyone”.
Stoltenberg left his role at the top of Nato in 2024 after a critical decade. The former Norwegian prime minister is now back in Oslo, serving as his country’s finance minister. But the war in Ukraine and deterring any attack on the rest of Europe remains his foremost personal concern.
“We have to take Russia seriously because they have proven they are willing to use military force to change borders,” says the centre-left politician. With Putin ramping up his hybrid conflict against the West, the “line between peace and war is more blurred than before”, he warns.
In an interview with The i Paper, he explains why he backs Ukraine’s right to strike targets in Russia and opposes Donald Trump’s U-turn over sanctions. He opens up about having to tell Volodymyr Zelensky that Nato wouldn’t use its jets to help defend his country, and reflects on Kyiv’s best chances of surviving when Putin is receiving help from the authoritative axis of China, Iran and North Korea.
Jens Stoltenberg met with Vladimir Putin while they were both prime ministers of their nations in 2009 (Photo: Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty)The ‘painful’ Zelensky call
As a child of the Cold War, Stoltenberg knows there can be no complacency over nuclear threats.
While serving as a 20-year-old conscript in the Norwegian military in 1979, his unit practiced sheltering from the fallout of a Soviet nuclear attack. This involved donning mittens and a hood, throwing themselves to the ground under a sheet of canvas and waiting with brushes in their hands, ready to sweep radiation off their clothes. If they survived.
Reflecting on this experience – which he describes in his book On My Watch – Stoltenberg recalls a “strange combination” of emotions. The idea of a world leader risking global apocalypse by using nuclear weapons seemed “impossible”, he says. “But at the same time, we had a real feeling of fear.”
It was the West’s fear about war with a nuclear power that prevented Nato from actively defending Ukraine when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. As Russian troops approached Kyiv that month, Zelensky forcefully lobbied for Nato to impose a no-fly zone over his country, protecting it from Russian air attacks despite not being a member.
“It was among the most difficult and the hardest conversations I had,” says Stoltenberg, 67. “If Nato does that, we need to shoot down Russian planes, helicopters, whatever moves in the air, and we need to take out Russian air defences. That would have triggered a direct conflict.”
Every national leader agreed this would be “a step too far”, he says, but informing the Ukrainian head of state was “painful”. The pair had developed a close relationship over the years and he was “afraid that President Zelensky was going to be killed by Russian forces”.
He knew that in his friend’s mind, the decision over air power demonstrated a “lack of courage, lack of strength” from the alliance. Zelensky told the secretary general: “I thought it was supposed to be Russia that was afraid of Nato, not Nato that was afraid of Russia.”
Their relationship survived, however. Stoltenberg was pleased to join Zelensky for dinner in Oslo last month before the funeral of Norway’s King Harald V, where he defied security concerns about assassination risks to join an hour-long procession through the city.
The former Nato chief admits that the alliance “underestimated totally” Ukraine’s resilience and expected they would lose “within weeks”. But so did Russia – and although the invaded country is still “paying a high price”, it has survived nearly five years.
Now, he says, allies must demonstrate the same “staying power”, for their own sakes as well as for Zelensky’s nation.
Jens Stoltenberg visiting Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv in 2023 (Photo: Roman Pilipey/Getty)‘Send a message to Moscow’
Some geopolitical experts believe Putin may want to attack Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which were long part of the Russian and Soviet empires but are now independent and joined Nato in 2004.
Stoltenberg is adamant that if the alliance keeps its Article 5 pledge – to treat an attack on a single member as an attack on them all – Putin will not gamble on attacking the Baltics.
“We see hybrid attacks – sabotage, disinformation, cyber aggression – against Nato allies. But from there to a full-scale military attack is a big step,” he says. “The best way to minimise that risk is to stay united, stay strong and send a message to Moscow that an attack on an ally will trigger a response from the alliance. As long as that is credible, there will be no attack.”
However, Western intelligence services have warned that Moscow’s “grey-zone” operations around Europe are becoming more aggressive. Although the Kremlin has not accepted responsibility, suspected Russian drones have also killed sailors by striking six ships in Romanian and Bulgarian areas of the Black Sea in the last fortnight. So, where would Nato draw the line?
“It has never been in the interest of Nato to provide our potential adversary the privilege of knowing exactly when they violate Article 5,” Stoltenberg says. He adds that increased defence spending, and stationing more Nato jets, tanks, ships and troops in eastern territories, “sends a signal of deterrence that I’m pretty certain that Moscow has seen”.
The problem, when it comes to unity though, is that Putin will also have noticed Trump’s recent outbursts.
Jens Stoltenberg meeting Donald Trump at the White House in 2019 (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty)‘Ukraine has the right to strike Russian territory’
When Trump travelled to the Nato summit in Brussels in 2018, even the President’s own team worried he could pull the US out of Nato over Europe’s poor contributions towards its own defence.
Stoltenberg’s team worked hard to placate the President, and many now accept that Trump did well to jolt other members into spending more.
Strains have emerged again this year. First, Trump hit out at allies for failing to support the US and Israeli war on Iran. Now, his deal to buy diesel from Russia and his U-turn on imposing more sanctions – saying he doesn’t want to drive Russia “away from the bargaining table” – has rattled partners.
Perhaps he will be proved right, after Putin’s top aide said on Wednesday that Russia is “ready in principle” to hold a new round of peace talks with the US and Ukraine next month. Observers will be sceptical after many previous negotiation failures, though.
How does Stoltenberg feel when Trump says that Zelensky “doesn’t want to end this war” and is “more difficult to deal with” than Putin? And what about the limitations reportedly imposed on Ukraine’s use of the US Starshield satellite platform, vital for intercepting Russian drones and missiles?
As a serving member of the Norwegian government, Stoltenberg remains strictly diplomatic. He doesn’t criticise Trump himself. Nevertheless, he is clear only stronger sanctions will force Russia to negotiate a peace deal, and “the decision by the US runs counter to these efforts”.
He would also oppose Trump joining talks with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping while there is no invitation for Zelensky. “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” he says.
Trump has demanded that Ukraine should stop attacking Russian gas and oil facilities, to reduce energy prices. Again, Stoltenberg politely but firmly disagrees. “Ukraine has the right to defend itself. That includes strikes on Russian territory,” he says. As long as Kyiv abides by international law, “I will leave it to the Ukrainians to make decisions exactly on how they use their weapons”.
Jens Stoltenberg during a Nato exercise in 2015 (Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty)‘We can change Putin’s calculus’
Stoltenberg is firm that “the invasion has been a strategic failure for Moscow”. Under his stewardship, Sweden and Finland both joined Nato, strengthening an alliance that Putin wanted to weaken.
However, he accepts Ukraine has become a “war of attrition”, with Putin supported by allies of his own.
“We see how China is propping up the Russian war economy,” he says. “We see North Korean soldiers fighting on European soil. We see Iranian drones killing Europeans.” He is alarmed at how these authoritarian regimes are “undermining” Europe’s security by working together.
Putin looks prepared to grind on for years, believing his enemies will eventually grow weary of sending billions of dollars, euros and pounds to Kyiv. So, if Nato won’t offer enough help to push Russia out, is Ukraine doomed?
“I cannot tell you how this war will end,” he says, “but I can tell you that the more we support Ukraine, the higher the likelihood that Putin will have to sit down and negotiate a solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation.”
“The best estimate is that Russia has lost around 1,000 soldiers per day, dead and severely wounded casualties,” he adds. “They are paying a high economic price… I don’t think we can change Putin’s mind – he wants to control Ukraine – but I believe that we can change Putin’s calculus if the price he has to pay for controlling Ukraine becomes too high.”
Russia’s UK embassy said that Stoltenberg advocates “more fighting and aims to prolong the Ukraine crisis”. In a statement, it argued: “This approach risks further increasing the human and economic costs of the conflict, including for the citizens of Nato member states, Britain among them.”
It said Moscow “does not seek confrontation with the alliance”, and claimed that “anti-Russian rhetoric and scaremongering” contribute to “rising tensions and undermine prospects for lasting peace”.
Stoltenberg remains firm that Nato must – and will – continue standing by Ukraine under his successor, former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte.
“If Russia wins,” he says, “it will send a message to President Putin, and also to Beijing, that if they use military force, they will achieve what they want. That will make the whole world more dangerous.”
‘On My Watch: Leading Nato in a Time of War‘ by Jens Stoltenberg is available in paperback now (£12.99, William Collins)
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