Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
We think all signs are that Trump and his aides are already planning to blame a big loss on everyone but him, and we think that would be bad for the country in terms of what’s coming next. So we hope Democrats won’t let them get away with that.
Madison Andrus: Thanks for having me Greg. It’s really great to be back on again.
Madison, it’s clear that Trump’s approval is now dropping into the low 30s, and the Democratic lead in the generic ballot matchup is growing. Do you think Democrats are up by 10 points in the generic matchup right now?
And so I think that there are a lot of districts all across the country, you know, that we’ve had on our map for months and months, if not years. And people thought we were crazy to kind of be going into these traditionally red areas and red districts. And now we are just a couple of weeks away from the election, and we see that it’s really paying off.
It’s in Appalachia. This is really heavy-duty Trump country. It does have Asheville, but it’s very rural in a lot of stretches. And like I say, Appalachia, Trump country. This is a place where you guys really think you’re going to win.
JD Vance is actually in that district today, and judging from the photos that I saw, he could barely pull together 30 people to come and see him.
Let’s talk about some of these Republican leaks. They’re really off the charts now. Republicans leaked to Politico that there’s a new level of panic over their internal polling in the House races. A growing number of Republicans blame Trump directly for this situation.
Madison, that strikes me as interesting. Has there been, like, a sudden deterioration in these safer seats? Can you give us a few examples of where you’re seeing that, if you are?
Gas prices are up all over the country, diesel fuel hitting over $6 in many parts. You know, this is the reality that working families in America have been facing for over a year now. This is not a sudden shift. It just feels like finally, when they are actually staring down their election, they’re finally waking up, and it’s just too late.
Andrus: Yeah, we talked about North Carolina 11, but we’re seeing it in so many other places. Kind of bringing us back down to Texas, in Texas 15 with Bobby Pulido against Monica De La Cruz—everybody’s been really talking about Bobby Pulido for a while, but folks were really questioning if a Democrat could win in this district that Trump won by a fairly large margin.
We’re seeing over in Florida 25 with Jared Moskowitz against Scott Singer, Republicans are having to dump tens of millions of dollars into a district that was supposed to be an easy pickup for them. And so I think what we’ve clearly seen is that these gerrymandering attempts have backfired. And as we get closer and closer to Election Day, we are just seeing Republican chances in these districts absolutely crater.
So Madison, there you have it. House Republicans blaming Senate counterparts for overconfidence and sucking up the resources they want. But what I don’t get about this, and maybe you can shed light here, is, aren’t House Republicans currently outspending House Democrats right now, when you put together the candidates’ war chests with the national group spending? What’s the situation there?
And what we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks is that, you know, there’s a few things that money can’t fully buy. And we’re seeing that elections are one of them, when people are in just such a rough spot economically. Any money that they are pouring in is not actually changing the fact of the matter on the ground.
Andrus: Yeah, I mean, we are not taking any of this for granted. Very recently we sent out a memo to donors saying that we wanted to make sure that we had the resources needed to fight, especially in kind of some of these outer districts, like in Florida 7 and in North Carolina 9.
Sargent: So here’s something else that’s remarkable as well. Trump’s super PAC officials are now telling Politico that they can’t really help embattled Republican incumbents and candidates all that much.
So Madison, I mean, what’s surprising about this is how Trumpworld is just kind of washing its hands of the situation.
Sargent: Well, there’s more leaking coming from Republicans who are absolutely prepared to blame Trump. One GOP operative working on many races tells Politico: “He’s constantly been distracted and not focused on what the voters care about. It’s insane.”
But it sure looks to me like the situation that these Republicans are in, incumbents and candidates alike, is dictated wholly by the failures of Trump’s agenda, and that that’s just front and center in people’s minds. Right?
Andrus: That’s definitely something we’re seeing on the ground, is that voters are holding House Republicans responsible for co-signing this disastrous agenda that is just leading to higher costs across the board.
Sargent: So you have some new internal polling to share. This is in Texas’s 28th district, where Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar is the incumbent. The new DCCC poll has Cuellar up by 54 to 34 over Republican challenger Tano Tijerina.
Andrus: Yeah, these are just some really shocking and impressive numbers that we are seeing coming out of South Texas. And what’s interesting about this is that we’ve actually been hearing for months that Republican internal polling was showing some pretty equally horrendous numbers for them.
Sargent: Yeah, in fact, we should clarify that the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is, like, the leading Republican super PAC in the House races, recently pulled its funding, as Punchbowl News reported—pulled its funding out of this particular race.
Andrus: Yeah. At the beginning of all of this, they were calling Tano Tijerina their star recruit. He was the best of the best that they had, that they were propping up in South Texas. And to just go from, this is our prized recruit, to pulling millions of dollars away from him—I think it goes to show exactly how much Republicans have failed, but also just how strong of a candidate Henry Cuellar is, and how strong of a representative he is.
And so I think we are just starting to see, one, the pipe dream that Republicans were ever really going to take him on fall apart, but also this Texas dummymander. Like you said, Republicans drew these districts, redrew these South Texas districts, to try to flip these seats. And this was one of their prime targets, and we are already seeing complete and utter failure there.
Andrus: Yeah. So Texas 35, San Antonio area, that is basically a completely new district now, thanks to the Republican redraw. And we are still seeing really, really great signs coming out of Texas 35. You have the Democratic candidate there, Johnny Garcia, is a longtime sheriff’s deputy. He’s a law enforcement guy who has been a part of this community for years.
And he said to Johnny, I remember you from the sheriff’s office. I’ve never voted for a Democrat before in my life, but I’m voting for you this time.
Andrus: I think we are sweeping the South Texas districts. So that includes holding on to Texas 28 with Congressman Henry Cuellar, as well as Texas 34 with Congressman Vicente Gonzalez. And I think we’re flipping Texas 15. You know, Bobby Pulido is this once-in-a-generation candidate, an incredibly strong candidate for this community.
Sargent: Well, that would essentially mean that Democrats are going to win Texas’s 15th, Texas’s 28th, Texas’s 34th, Texas’s 35th. That would be quite a sweep. And that’s what you’re predicting. You’re going to win all.
Sargent: OK. Brass tacks. How many House seats at the end of the day, at the end of Election Day, how many do you think you’re going to end up with?
Sargent: Madison Andrus, if you guys sweep South Texas, it’s going to be a seismic event. So I really hope to see it. Thanks so much for coming on. Really great to talk to you.
Andrus: It’s shaping up to be a good night on November 3.
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