Exceptions, they say, prove the rule.
There are all kinds of biases in sports. Fans can be homers or haters. So can more journalists than some might admit. There can be a bias toward a particular style of play or particular regions of the country.
But the biggest bias in sports, in my opinion, continues to be recency bias.
It can be difficult to escape the moment. Sports are built around moments. We literally turn them into statues made of bronze and display them proudly outside our stadiums. Right now is forever. It is true. It is the only truth.
So, it is no surprise that the 2026 American League Championship Series is being seen in some corners as ironclad proof that baseball does not have an economic disparity issue. After all, the two teams with the lowest payrolls in MLB are facing off. For a chance at the World Series!
If they can do it, so can your team!
Even worse, there are some who would sour what should be near universal celebration. The Milwaukee Brewers sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Yes, what should be nothing but elation at the toppling of a foe with every built-in advantage is now bittersweet as some across the MLB landscape move to use it to argue the absurd; That no such advantage exists in the first place.
Make no mistake, it is an absurd claim on its face and only gets more so the more you dig. The economics of MLB are, of course, not solved thanks to some brilliant play in a single season by some incredibly fun teams. They are, of course, the exception to the rule. And incredibly engaging ones, at that.
The fact that one of these three teams is going to win the World Series should be a source of joy for everyone who roots for the underdog. And it still should be. As long as you don’t let them steal the narrative.
If you and I are running a race, and I get to start 10 feet in front of you, but you still come back to beat me, that doesn’t disprove that I had an unfair advantage. The same applies here. The fact that the advantage can be overcome doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist.
David’s triumph over Goliath does not prove it was a fair fight.
In baseball specifically, there is a reason we talk so much about small sample sizes. It is the central irony of the modern game. We have fantastic new statistics that allow us to dive deeper than ever before. By a lot. But most of those numbers require a lot of data before they even out. Luckily, the regular season gives plenty of space for more and more information.
season? Not so much.
Once you are in the dance, the deciding factor almost always comes down to which team has the hot pitching. But recent postseasons have also demonstrated over and over again how things like defense, baserunning, and even bunting become much more valuable in a small sample size.
In a similar way, when discussing the economics of the sport, focusing on one season is like focusing on one series. It’s just too small of a sample size to make definitive claims.
What we have in the case of 2026 is an outlier. Outliers are fun. As long as baseball remains a chaotic beautiful mess of a game, there will always be outliers. And yes, there are smart ways to increase your odds of being the next outlier.
If anything, this postseason shows that there are two good places to be as an MLB team. The first is simple. Be incredibly rich. Be an institution unto yourself. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs. Or play the hell out of some Moneyball. Brewers, Guardians, Rays.
But what happens to those teams when the money comes due? How long does Jacob Mizerowski remain a Brewer? Therein lies the microcosm of the macro problem.
If there isn’t some significant change in the next CBA, it’s essentially a foregone conclusion that he will end up on one of those institution teams. And that problem doesn’t go away because of a Cinderella World Series win.
Baseball still needs a middle class.
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