We look ahead to Sunday’s late Premier League game at the City Ground, as Mikel Arteta’s champions look to keep pace with Manchester City. Here is our Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
Arsenal are given a 58.3% chance of beating Nottingham Forest on Sunday, the highest assigned to any away team on Matchday 7 in the Premier League. The last two league meetings between Forest and Arsenal at the City Ground have finished goalless despite 40 shots. Arsenal have not scored a non-penalty set-piece goal in six Premier League games this season, their longest such drought since a seven-match run from January to March in 2025.When Oliver Glasner masterminded a 2-1 victory over Fulham on 7 December last year, his Crystal Palace side sat fourth in the Premier League table.
Of course, the Austrian has had more highs since then, leading the Eagles to UEFA Conference League glory in May to rubber-stamp his standing as their greatest-ever manager, before departing for Nottingham Forest.
But very few of those positive moments have been in the Premier League. Since that victory over Fulham, Glasner has only overseen five wins in 29 top-flight matches (D9 L15) – with just one coming in his first six games with Forest.
Since the start of that 29-game sequence, on Matchday 16 of 2025-26, Glasner’s 17% win ratio is the second worst among all managers to oversee at least 20+ Premier League games, with only former Wolves boss Rob Edwards (13%) faring worse.
Last Sunday’s 3-1 defeat at his former home of Selhurst Park will have particularly stung Glasner, especially with Forest firing off 24 shots and racking up 3.36 expected goals (xG). Their eight big chances in that game was the most by any team to lose a Premier League game since Blackburn Rovers against Newcastle United in February 2012.
And things do not get much easier for them this weekend as they go up against reigning Premier League champions, Arsenal.
Forest’s underlying metrics this campaign have been broadly positive. Their per-game averages in the Premier League for shots (17.7), expected goals (1.72 xG), touches in the opposition’s box (27.3) and big chances (3.5) are their best in any of the last five seasons.
However, they have scored with just 4.7% of their shots and have the worst xG differential in the division this season, netting five times from 10.3 xG (-5.3).
Igor Jesus and Bruno Guimarães turned the game around, sealing Arsenal’s second win from behind in four matches. No team has won more points from losing positions this season than the Gunners’ six.
Arsenal have now won 14 of their last 17 Premier League games (L3), with nine of those wins coming via a one-goal margin. In the last two seasons, they have won 17 by a single goal, the most of any side in Europe’s big five leagues.
Mikel Arteta’s men enjoyed a more convincing display in the UEFA Champions League, though, as Bukayo Saka scored in Tuesday’s 3-0 success over Lille.
Saka now has 19 goals in major European competitions for Arsenal, the second most in their history behind Thierry Henry (42), while his nine assists in the Champions League is their third most, behind Henry (16) and Cesc Fàbregas (14).
And the England winger may be called upon to provide the creativity again on Sunday, as somewhat curiously, Arsenal have not been able to rely upon their set-piece prowess yet this term.
The Gunners, who scored 25 non-penalty set-piece goals in the Premier League last term, including a new single-season record of 19 from corners, haven’t found the net from a set-piece (excluding penalties) after six Premier League matches in 2026-27.
It is their longest run without one since a seven-match streak between January and March 2025, and the first time they have not netted one in their first six games of a campaign since 2011-12.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
The last two Premier League meetings between Forest and Arsenal at the City Ground have ended goalless, with 40 combined shots registered without success.
Forest have only won one of their last 11 Premier League matches against Arsenal overall (D2 L8).
That victory came by a 1-0 scoreline in May 2023, with
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