We’re back for 5 more upset picks in Week 7.
Last week was another solid slate for underdog picks as South Carolina +425 and USC +105 both cashed.
Week 7 upset picks
Let’s dive in to 5 more picks:
Washington over Purdue
It’s time to buy low on Washington, I think. The Huskies were wholly uncompetitive against Iowa in Week 6 but this is a spot where they can bounce back. This is one of the only games on the Big Ten schedule where Washington has a meaningful talent advantage, though Purdue has certainly played better overall this season. One other small tidbit — this game is on Friday night, which means Purdue will be playing this game on short rest (Washington also played on Friday in Week 6 but the Boilers played on Saturday).
Pick: Washington to win (39% on Kalshi)
Florida over Texas
This is the long-shot of the week. The market seems to have bottomed out for Florida, which makes sense given how poorly the Gators played at home vs. South Carolina in Week 6. But what if the Gamecocks are better than what they’ve been given credit for? What if Florida’s defense can shut down Arch Manning again? What if Texas comes out lethargic after suffering a stunning loss to Oklahoma? I think all of that is more possible than this number suggests. This Texas offense, by any metric, is abysmal — and it’s not just because of the Oklahoma game. Texas is tracking to finish well outside of the top 100 in yards per play and there’s no obvious fix. A long Jadan Baugh run or 2 could flip this game on its head.
Pick: Florida to win (22% on Novig)
Indiana over Ohio State
Indiana has not been good relative to market expectations this year — the Hoosiers are just 1-5 against the spread and are missing the number by about 4 points per game. With that being said, I still like the Hoosiers this week at the current price. I think this game should be much closer to a pick ’em since it’s in Bloomington. Indiana is extremely explosive in the running game and Josh Hoover seems to have fixed his turnover woes from his TCU days.
Pick: Indiana to win (38% on Kalshi)
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Wisconsin over UCLA
Wisconsin has quietly been very good this season — the Badgers are 6th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play. They’ve exceeded expectations on both sides of the ball. The Badgers were idle last week while UCLA played a highly-physical game against Oregon and lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season while doing so. UCLA’s new quarterback is Ty Dieffenbach, whose only significant experience came at Cal Poly last season where he averaged 8 yards per attempt and had 9 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions.
Pick: Wisconsin over UCLA (44% on Novig)
Nebraska over Oregon
I think Nebraska is undervalued here. The Huskers had IU on the ropes last week before letting them off the hook in the 4th quarter. Nebraska’s offense is legit good — 24th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Oregon’s offense, on the other hand, is putrid (84th in that same metric). Even with Dante Moore coming back, I’m not sure the Ducks will be good enough to keep up with Nebraska if Anthony Colandrea gets into a rhythm.
Pick: Nebraska to win (30% on Novig)
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