Ahead of the 2026-27 Conference League getting started, the Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the season. But who won the competition most often?
A European campaign starting in mid-October? It must finally be time for the UEFA Conference League.
Like the Champions League and Europa League, the Conference League has 36 participating teams, but the league phase for the latter only consists of six games per team rather than eight. So while we’re already onto the second round of games in the UCL and UEL, the Conference League only just begins this Thursday.
The last two (and three of the last four) Conference League crowns have been won by English sides, with Crystal Palace lifting their first European trophy back in May as they beat Rayo Vallecano in the final.
Will Palace’s fierce rivals Brighton & Hove Albion make it three in a row for the Premier League, or will someone else step up?
Using the Opta supercomputer, we have run 10,000 projections of this season’s competition to see which teams are likeliest to be successful in the final in Istanbul on 2 June 2027.
Conference League 2026-27 Predictions
Brighton are the Opta supercomputer’s overwhelming favourites to win the Conference League, lifting the trophy in 44.5% of simulations. Monaco are distant second favourites, just ahead of last season’s Europa League runners-up Freiburg. Hearts have a 20.7% chance of reaching the round of 16. Mohamed Salah’s Trabzonspor won the competition in 1.1% of sims.Conference League Favourites in 2026-27
Despite having never won a European trophy before, Brighton are huge favourites to lift this season’s Conference League trophy before a ball is kicked.
There are many reasons the Opta supercomputer is leaning so heavily in the Seagulls’ favour, but mostly because of their high placing in the current Opta Power Rankings.
Thanks to consistent performances in the strongest league in the world (also according to Opta’s rankings), and their particularly excellent start to this season – including an emphatic 3-0 win over #1 ranked Arsenal – Brighton are seventh in the global Power Rankings. That has them above teams like Real Madrid, Inter and Manchester United. Indeed, they are only two places below Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain.
Fabian Hürzeler will need to navigate a European campaign alongside their domestic one, though, and Brighton’s ability to manage the extra games will be key in how successful they are on both fronts.
According to the Opta supercomputer, though, they have a great chance of going all the way in Europe, winning the Conference League in a whopping 44.5% of simulations.
The south-coast club have an incredible 98.2% chance of making it to the last 16.
No other team won it even 10% of the time, but let’s run through who else could enjoy success should Brighton stumble.
Monaco have also made a strong start domestically, sitting top of Ligue 1 after six games played, taking advantage of PSG’s poor form.
Filipe Luís has his team playing good football, and their significantly greater experience in Europe could give them an advantage over Brighton, whom they play at home on Matchday 5 of the league phase.
The supercomputer gives Monaco a 9.7% chance of winning the Conference League, just ahead of Freiburg, whom Monaco are also scheduled to face.
The Bundesliga side were beaten in the Europa League final by Aston Villa last season but will hope to put that right in this competition as third favourites. Like Monaco, Freiburg top their domestic league somewhat surprisingly, and Julian Schuster will be confident his team can manage both European and domestic action as they did so well last term.
The Breisgau Brazilians avenged their Europa League final loss by winning the Conference League this season in 9.3% of simulations.
Other Conference League Contenders
One team who had a bit more joy in recent Europa League seasons is Atalanta, who won the competition in 2023-24. La Dea were in the Champions League last season, reaching the round of 16, but they were dumped out 10-2 on aggregate by Bayern Munich.
They won’t have to face anyone of that quality in this competition, though, and they have a 6.9% chance of adding Conference League glory to their previous Europa League success.
SC Braga are next, though they have made a mixed start in the Primeira Liga, winning just three of their first seven games (D2 L2). They were beaten by Freiburg in the semi-finals of last season’s Europa League, but Carlos Vicens’ men went all the way in the Conference League this term in 4.2% of sims.
The only other two teams with at least a 3% chance of winning the competition are Danish pair Midtjylland (3.5%) and FC Copenhagen (3%).
Other notable percentages are four-time European Cup/Champions League winners Ajax (2.1%), and Mohamed Salah’s Trabzonspor (1.1%). These gigantic names of the game (Ajax and Salah) may not be at their peak anymore but are still more than capable of springing a surprise.
Hearts came really close to ending the Glaswegian stranglehold on the Scottish Premiership last season, but they now find themselves with a chance to put their name on the map in Europe. The Edinburgh club only won the Conference League in 0.1% of simulations, but they did at least reach the last 16 in 20.7%.
There are five teams who did not win the Conference League in any of our 10,000 simulations: KF Egnatia, Iberia 1999, Inter Club d’Escaldes, Kauno Žalgiris and Lincoln Red Imps.
But in this game, you never know…
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