November is just around the corner, and the latest weather outlook suggests parts of the United States could get an early taste of winter while other regions enjoy temperatures that feel more like fall.
According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys, the Southwest and southern Rocky Mountains are expected to see below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall in November. Meanwhile, much of the northern United States, along with the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, could experience warmer-than-normal conditions.
The forecast comes as a potentially historic El Niño develops in the Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern that can influence temperatures and storm tracks across the country.
Four States Could See More Snow This November
Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Texas are the four states to watch for above-average snowfall, according to Roys’ forecast shared with Men’s Journal on October 12.
Temperatures across the region are expected to run 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, with the coldest conditions centered around the Four Corners region, where Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah meet. Temperatures there could fall at least 2 degrees below average.
The combination of cooler temperatures and an outlook favoring above-average snowfall could mean a snowier-than-usual start to the season for parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
The forecast does not specify exact snowfall totals or identify individual cities expected to receive the most snow. Conditions can also vary considerably across these states, particularly between higher-elevation mountain communities and lower-lying areas.
Warmer Temperatures Expected Across Much of the Country
While four states could see more snow, other parts of the country may experience a milder start to November.
Roys’ outlook calls for temperatures at least 2 degrees Fahrenheit above average across much of the northern tier, including areas stretching from Washington to Minnesota and Michigan.
The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast are also expected to lean warmer than normal. Along the Carolina coast, as well as in Georgia and Florida, temperatures could run at least 2 degrees above historical averages.
Elsewhere, temperatures across parts of the central Rockies, Great Basin, central and southern Plains, and Mid-South are expected to remain closer to seasonal norms.
A Developing El Niño Could Influence November Weather
The outlook arrives as a strong El Niño develops, potentially influencing weather patterns throughout the fall and winter.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during fall and winter 2026-27. NOAA’s September outlook also indicated a 75% chance that the event would reach a level exceeding previous events dating to 1950 during October through December.
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal. The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation can shift the jet stream, affecting where storms travel and how temperatures develop across the United States.
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