The decision by the global credit rating agency Fitch to affirm Egypt’s rating at “B” with a stable outlook has been welcomed by economic experts and academics, as well as the Finance Ministry, which emphasized that the Egyptian economy has once again demonstrated its resilience and ability to absorb shocks amidst regional turmoil.
The ministry noted in a statement that consistent, proactive policies have contributed to positive economic outcomes, highlighting a growth rate of 5.1 percent during the 2025/2026 fiscal year – driven by expansion in the manufacturing, telecommunications, and information technology sectors.
The statement added that the primary surplus reached 4.9 percent of GDP, while the overall budget deficit narrowed to 5.8 percent in the 2025/2026 fiscal year.
It also noted a 27 percent increase in tax revenues—achieved without imposing new burdens—coinciding with the implementation of tax facilitation packages.
The Finance Ministry reaffirmed its commitment to pursuing balanced fiscal policies that stimulate economic activity while maintaining stability and fiscal discipline, assuring that it will intensify efforts alongside government and private sector partners to foster growth driven by production and exports.
The ministry said that high debt-service costs remain the primary challenge amidst rising interest rates, noting that the debt-service bill will drop significantly once these rates decline.
The statement indicated that the medium-term debt management strategy aims to extend maturities and diversify both instruments and the investor base to mitigate refinancing risks, explaining that consistently achieving substantial primary budget surpluses helps place the debt ratio and its servicing costs on a sustainable downward trajectory.
The former Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, Alia al-Mahdy, described Fitch’s decision as “positive,” expressing hope for further positive indicators and measures on the economic front.
Rating aligns with macroeconomic indicators
A professor of economics at Ain Shams University, Yomn al-Hamaky, said that the rating aligns with macroeconomic indicators that have garnered the approval of international institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund.
Hamaky added that this stable outlook reflects the significant potential of the Egyptian economy.
“The challenge remains in our ability to maximize the utilization of this potential; we face ongoing challenges related to the issues plaguing the Egyptian private sector, as well as the need to activate the role of small enterprises,” she explained.
A professor of economics and financial and tax legislation Amr Youssef said that Fitch’s decision—which he described as “cautious”—was based on several key factors, foremost among these was the level of foreign currency reserves held by the Central Bank of Egypt, which reached approximately US$ 58 billion in September, alongside net foreign assets nearing $19 billion.
He pointed to a second factor; the Egyptian economy’s ability to absorb the “hot money” crisis without resorting to restrictive measures seen in the past, as the flexibility in handling the situation facilitated the eventual return of these funds.
Youssef added that the national economy’s 5.1 percent growth rate—driven by the manufacturing sector—was another significant factor underpinning Fitch’s assessment of the current situation, as was the increase in tax revenues achieved without imposing new specific taxes.
He added that while Fitch rating serves as a fresh vote of confidence in Egypt’s strength and economic resilience in the face of repeated shocks, it remains “cautious” due to significant risks—specifically the volume of public debt and the associated debt-servicing costs—that require a fundamental solution.
And professor of accounting and taxation at Tanta University, Abdel-Rasoul Abdel-Hadi, emphasized the importance of relying on a purely homegrown economic program in the coming period, independent of the International Monetary Fund.
He added, “It is time for Egypt to rely on its own resources, boost tourism and remittances from Egyptians abroad, and begin implementing a national plan to build factories.”
Edited translation from Al-Masry Al-Youm
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