As a result, the West Coast can expect to see sea levels begin to rise by up to 1 ft. this month—and scientists say that the phenomenon can create dangerous conditions for humans, and place deadly stress on marine wildlife as it travels up the coastline.
Kelvin waves are named after the Scottish engineer, mathematician, and physicist who identified the phenomenon, William Thomson, also known as Lord Kelvin. They are not like the typical waves you see crashing into the beach. They’re planetary waves—large, slow-moving masses of water that can span thousands of miles. Warm water slowly moves along the equator, towards South, Central and North America and can raise sea level for months.
While it might not sound like much, coupled with other factors, it can have a major impact on coastlines. “[If] you add that sea level change to the normal tides or strong tide, and then potentially add a storm on top of it, which El Niño intensifies, then it can start to have a meaningful effect on changing the beach erosion and flooding at the coast,” says Roundy.
When was the last Kelvin wave?
A number of coastal California towns, including Malibu, Laguna Beach, and Long Beach, have already seen significant coastal erosion this year—due to a number of factors, including El Niño and Pacific hurricanes. At the end of September, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to help prepare the state for potential El Niño impacts.
On the other hand, the 2022-2023 El Niño, did not produce strong Kelvin waves. That’s because a number of other weather events—including weak westerly winds—did not produce the kind of conditions meant to form them.
How are Kelvin waves linked to El Niño?
There’s a lot of scientific debate about how climate change is impacting El Niño events. However, global temperatures trend higher during El Niño years, as warm water adds heat into the atmosphere. That, coupled with already record breaking global temperatures due to human caused climate change, has scientists predicting that 2027 is likely to be the world's hottest year on record.
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