But Carney’s united front is being tested once more, following separatist Parti Québécois’ (PQ) win in Quebec’s provincial election on Monday. The win came just two weeks before Alberta is set to vote on Oct. 19 over whether to remain in Canada or move ahead with a second binding vote on separation. The PQ has already pledged its intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. “The courageous battle of Francophones to protect their language and culture will succeed when they have their own country,” said Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Quebec’s incoming Premier, during his victory speech.
Even if he were to change his mind, holding such a referendum without a majority in Quebec’s National Assembly would prove difficult, experts say. The party fell five seats short of the 64 needed to form a majority government. “In order to have a referendum, you need to have the question adopted by the National Assembly of Quebec, and Plamondon is not going to have the votes for that,” says Stéphane Paquin, a professor of public policy and international political economy at the École nationale d’administration publique (ENAP) in Montreal.
After trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada collapsed in August, Carney met virtually with provincial and territorial Premiers to strategize. He used the opportunity to underscore his view that “Canada is strongest when governments stand together.” The trade standoff with the U.S. comes after months of escalating tensions, as Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada and make it the “51st state” since returning to office.
Nor should the separatist party's victory necessarily be interpreted as a rejection of Carney. The Prime Minister remains popular in Quebec—a poll by Abacus Data in late September found Carney had a net impression of +46, with 59% of Quebecers identifying Trump and his Administration as one of the three most important issues facing Canada.
An August analysis by the National Bank of Canada estimates that Quebec faces the highest average effective U.S. tariff rate in Canada at roughly 11%. According to provincial data, Quebec’s exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals dropped by nearly 25% in 2025, alongside double-digit declines in autos, chemicals, and plastics products.
“It prompted PQ to commit to holding a referendum only after the departure of the President,” Lecours says. “Most Quebecers don't want an independence referendum at this point, anyway, so it helped to make the referendum something distant.”
That tension is already visible over the trade war, he notes. When Carney decided to match U.S. tariffs “dollar-for-dollar”, Plamondon publicly opposed the approach, saying “it directly harms” Quebec's economy.
“PQ still wants to have a referendum on independence, so it has very few incentives to make this relationship [with Carney] work or seem productive,” Lecours adds.
Alberta separatism movement adds plight to Carney’s unity efforts
Carney is facing a separatist challenge in the energy-rich province of Alberta. An Oct. 19 referendum, set to also include immigration and constitutional questions, will ask Albertans: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Polling from 338Canada on Sept. 20 showed 74% of Albertans wish to remain in Canada.
“That’s the scale of what Alberta and Canada can achieve—and the speed with which we can achieve it–when we work together,” Carney said on Oct. 1, announcing that Canada will fast-track the approval process for the pipeline. “And we will build together—with Alberta, British Columbia, and every province and territory—in the true spirit of cooperative federalism, harnessing the full force of a united Canada.”
“In order to prevent support for independence in Alberta, the Carney government’s strategy is to put more money and investment in the direction of Alberta,” says Paquin. “[Quebecans] might compare what he's doing to Alberta to what he does to Quebec. If he has a stronger stance against Quebec or a more aggressive approach, then it could lead to more support for Quebec independence.”
Leader of the Parti Quebecois (PQ) Paul St-Pierre Plamondon makes a speech in Quebec, Canada, on Oct. 5, 2026. —Andrej Ivanov––Getty ImagesHence then, the article about how quebec separatists win poses new challenge for carney amid trump trade war was published today ( ) and is available on Time ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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