The Premier League returns this weekend, but some clubs have an easier schedule than others. Who has the toughest and easiest upcoming fixtures? We use the Opta Power Rankings to find out.
With the international break coming to a close, the Premier League returns this weekend. There are five more matchdays before the next pause for international action, giving us a nice, chunky run of games to analyse.
Looking at their prospective fixture lists, though, some teams are going to have a much tougher time of it than others.
We can quantify how difficult each side’s next five games are by using the Opta Power Rankings. By taking the average rating, on a global scale of 1-100, of each team’s next five opponents, we can work out who has the hardest and easiest upcoming schedules. On paper, anyway.
Here are the findings:
The Hardest Next Five Games
Liverpool have the hardest next five games according to the Opta Power Rankings.
Home matches against Manchester City and Arsenal headline their upcoming run, but they also face tough games against high-flying Brentford and Brighton. Those two clubs sit in the top four of the Premier League table as things stand and have shot up the global Power Rankings following their impressive starts.
Brighton are now as high as seventh in the world, with Brentford not far behind in 13th.
Liverpool can’t complain too much. The Reds came into the season with the easiest opening five games, so this is surely the almighty Premier League fixture machine- almost as prescient as the Opta supercomputer, we’ve heard – just evening things out.
Nottingham Forest have the second-hardest set of five fixtures. They, too, face both Arsenal and Manchester City before the next international break.
But first, Oliver Glasner will travel back to his former club Crystal Palace on Matchday 6. He’ll be eyeing that one, along with an away game against Ipswich on MD8, as one of the clearest places to grab points during a difficult spell.
Everyone, including us, is raving about Brighton’s start to the season. They have been one of the league’s great entertainers so far, scoring more goals than any other side (16) while also pressing more aggressively than anyone else.
Might the Seagulls be about to have their wings clipped, though?
Brighton have the third-hardest next five matches, including back-to-back games against Liverpool and Manchester City. Then again, plenty of people expected Brighton’s Matchday 5 meeting with Arsenal to be their ‘come back down to earth’ moment, and look how that turned out.
Aston Villa, by contrast, have endured a difficult start to their domestic campaign. They have recorded the fewest shots (48), shots on target (12) and touches in the opposition box (81) so far. Their struggles can be summed up by the fact they have the worst expected goals difference in the division (-4.35).
That was perhaps to be expected given the significant turnover in their squad over the summer. Unai Emery’s team picked up a much-needed victory over Tottenham before the international break, but that remains their only win of the season. Unfortunately, things might not get much easier in the short term. Villa have the fourth-hardest five-game spell coming up of any side.
Leeds United are one of only six teams still unbeaten, but they begin this next stretch with the hardest fixture of the lot: away to Arsenal. Mikel Arteta has won all four of his Premier League meetings with Leeds boss Daniel Farke, his joint-best 100% win rate against any manager he has faced in the top flight.
Leeds’ unbeaten record is going to come under immediate threat, with that trip to Arsenal a major reason why their next five fixtures rank as the fifth-hardest in the competition.
The Easiest Next Five Games
In news that will have Fantasy Premier League managers salivating, Fulham have the mother of all fixture swings when the action resumes.
They face each of the three newly promoted sides across the next three matchdays before taking on Aston Villa and Newcastle. The Cottagers have won seven of their last eight matches against promoted opposition, and this run should provide Álvaro Arbeloa with an excellent opportunity to pick up his first league win as new boss.
Newcastle have made a curious start to the season under new manager Matthias Jaissle. They sit ninth in the Premier League table, but as our analysis earlier in the international break found, that might be a slightly fortuitous position.
Our expected points table, which uses the underlying expected goals data for and against each team, has Newcastle bottom. That 11-place gap between their actual and expected positions is the largest in the division.
Still, they have ridden their luck well, and their next five fixtures are the second-easiest of any team. That should give them the chance to improve those underlying numbers and bring their performances more in line with their league position.
Coventry City picked up a huge win away at Nottingham Forest on Matchday 5 to claim their first points of the season, and things are beginning to look a little brighter for Frank Lampard’s side.
Three of their next five fixtures are at home, starting with a meeting against Newcastle, who, as we’ve mentioned, have looked vulnerable despite their results. Coventry then travel to rock-bottom Tottenham before home games against Sunderland and Fulham, fixtures in which they will surely be targeting more points.
Things need to happen for Tottenham, and they need to happen quickly.
Could their next five matches be the spark for that? With an average opponent rating of 91.9, Tottenham have the fourth-kindest run coming up. It starts with a tricky trip to Old Trafford, but eases off from there.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have not actually been quite as bad as their position at the bottom of the table would suggest. They sit 12th in our expected points table. That’s still not fantastic, but is far more palatable than their current situation.
These next five games, particularly the home matches against Coventry and Crystal Palace, will be crucial if Spurs are to start converting those more encouraging underlying numbers into actual results.
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Premier League Fixture Difficulty: Who Has the Hardest Next Five Games Before the November Break? Opta Analyst.
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