From Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warnings to the recent confirmation by the United Nations Environment Programme that the world is set to overshoot limits needed to prevent some of the worst of global warming's harms, change is imperative. Extreme weather events are becoming more lethal, frequent, and intense.
Yet the past year has also brought significant progress, showing how the transition away from fossil fuels is becoming a reality. After leaders gathered in New York for Climate Week and the UN General Assembly, there are several lessons we must carry into COP31—and reasons to accelerate action.
Our agenda was also restructured to accelerate implementation of the Paris Agreement, uniting the world around solutions. A new two-tier multilateralism is already in motion. One speed is anchored in countries and consensus. The second, which does not require consensus, focuses on implementing the decisions of the COPs.
These efforts are building the foundations for our future beyond oil, gas, and coal. The test now is whether they help countries turn commitments into action.
Our fossil fuel dependence laid bare
When the war against Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences reached far beyond the region. Brent crude prices rose above $100 a barrel, putting pressure on fuel costs worldwide, squeezing government and household budgets alike. Since the start of the crisis, inflated prices for oil and gas have cost an extra $1.83 billion per day to importers with no additional benefit.
Our overreliance on fossil fuels has become unavoidable, undeniable, and unsustainable.
Renewable energy truly is the growth story of our time: powering economies, creating jobs, and strengthening competitiveness. Countries that build abundant, affordable renewable power, and the networks to deliver it, can attract the industries and investment of the electric age. And produce at scale the non-fossil fuels to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as air and maritime transport.
According to the United Nations, every dollar invested in renewable energy creates up to three times as many jobs as a dollar invested in fossil fuels—making the transition an opportunity to build livelihoods as well as energy security.
The challenge ahead
We must also scale the electrification of energy, transport and industry to strengthen energy security, improve efficiency and boost competitiveness. Earlier this year, we launched the Electrify Now campaign to advance this effort. The incoming COP31 Presidency has also proposed increasing electricity’s share of global energy use to 35% by 2035. The challenge now is to turn this momentum into improvements people can see: electric buses on city streets, cleaner heat for homes and factories, reliable electricity for communities still without it, sustainable fuels replacing fossil ones in sectors where electrification is challenging.
At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, we shall strengthen credible plans, or commitments to develop them, for clean electrification within wider energy and economic strategies. Those plans must reflect national circumstances, be built in dialogue with society, and set out how national and subnational governments, together with business and many other actors, will expand infrastructure and stimulate investment.
What matters is what changes beyond the negotiating halls: more secure, affordable energy, better livelihoods, and less exposure to the next fossil fuel crisis. The task ahead is vast and calls for systemic change, but the direction is set, and the tools are at hand.
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