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“There's a lot of things that create variation in the colors across the landscape, and all these things can interact somewhat unpredictably,” says William Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry at the University of Vermont. “Climate change, as with everything, just scrambles the deck.”
New England and upstate New York were among the most promising areas in AccuWeather’s August forecast, with wet weather in late spring and early summer and the prospect of drier conditions and cooler nights heading into autumn potentially setting the stage for memorable views.
Colorado and the Carolinas could also see duller colors and brittle leaves due to drought conditions in the region.
How will climate change affect the pastime of leaf peeping?
As days shorten, chlorophyll production in deciduous trees slows and eventually stops, while existing chlorophyll breaks down. Weather conditions also influence the timing and intensity of fall colors. The years 2015 through 2025 have been the warmest on record globally—and the heat impacts trees.
Extreme weather events—including droughts and heavy rainfall—can play a part in the vividness of the colors, while a cold snap can trigger leaves to fall early.
Warmer fall temperatures typically lead to a shorter peak fall foliage season. However, some research is finding that climate change could lead to a longer season in some instances, as different species of trees respond at different times.
“What would have been a mosaic of lots of different colors, within the same period, is going to be now this extended thing where we see a few species change here and there, and then maybe a couple weeks later, another set of species,” he says.
“Depending on how bad of a drought you're in and how stressed the trees are. You see the leaves crinkle and die before they can even change,” says Stephanie Spera, an associate professor of geography, environment, and sustainability at the University of Richmond.
When is the best weekend to view fall foliage? For the most part, that’s anyone’s guess, according to Spera.
“You're just gonna have to bet on a weekend and hope for the best,” she says.
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