Kemi Badenoch thrives at Conservative conferences. As a newly-elected MP in 2017, she first caught people’s attention when given the role of introducing Theresa May’s conference speech, and impressed everyone with her confidence, humour and sassiness. “A future cabinet minister,” I thought at the time, “or even a future leader.”
When she indeed become Conservative leader in 2024, Badenoch endured a very difficult first few months, as her party slid down the polls and were overtaken by Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Badenoch was lazy, critics said, alienated colleagues, and was a dreadful mistake. It wouldn’t last, the consensus was, that it wouldn’t be long before another Tory leader was ousted.
However, her conference speech in Manchester last October saved her leadership. It was forceful, witty, dramatic, and full of eye-catching policies, such as quitting the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), deporting 150,000 illegal migrants, cutting foreign aid to just 0.1 per cent of GDP, and abolishing stamp duty on primary homes. Not all policies I’d endorse, but Tory activists were ecstatic. Nobody talks now about a coup against Badenoch – she has gradually won wide respect for her performances in the Commons and on TV.
Badenoch has become more popular with the public, too. And where the Tories were at around 17 per cent a year ago, and in danger of being crushed by Farage, Badenoch has turned their fortunes back up again – albeit slightly – to an average of 20 per cent last month, though still behind Reform. Badenoch is turning her party round, but it’s not fast enough to see off Reform just yet, or pose a seriousthreat to Andy Burnham’s new Labour. Especially if Badenoch believes – as she said this week – that Burnham might call an election as early as next May.
But continuing to outbid Reform on the outside right of politics won’t work as a strategy. Most of the public aren’t anything like as right-wing as Reform. Trying to emulate Reform’s extreme nationalism might win back a few voters, but the Tories have lost, and will lose, far more on the centre ground, where most elections in British history have been won. We saw in 2024 how across South of England – from Kent to Cornwall and the Cotswolds, the Liberal Democrats picked up dozens of seats where voters felt the Conservatives had become too extreme on issues such as Europe and immigration.
The party has moved further right under Badenoch. What message does it send to traditional Conservatives when they hear her insisting that all new candidates – including former MPs – now have to sign pledges to her policies of leaving the ECHR and abandoning net zero? She is also inconsistent. What about current MPs who are committed to ECHR membership and net zero? Or Conservative peers, including former leaders David Cameron and Theresa May?
Badenoch has to brush up her party’s appeal in terms of the faces around her. She showed extraordinary pettiness, maybe vindictiveness, in barring the former cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt from becoming a candidate again. Mordaunt, who lost her Portsmouth seat in 2024, is one of the most effective politicians the Conservatives have, and was backed by more than 100 MPs in the 2022 leadership contest. Badenoch should remember that confident leaders – Abraham Lincoln and Clement Attlee spring to mind – recruit the best people to their teams, rather than exclude them as potential rivals. If Badenoch genuinely expects a quick election she needs to overhaul the Tories’ candidate selection system. It’s currently in chaos, grossly under staffed and regularly deters good contenders. The party has only picked one candidate so far, yet would need 200 moreMPs for a parliamentary majority.
In the current Commons, Badenoch’s frontbench team must be the weakest in British history – overwhelmingly obscure and mediocre. True, the party was reduced to just 122 MPs in 2024, but Badenoch seems to be in the absurd position of having more experience and talent on herback benches, than sitting alongside her as shadow ministers. Tom Tugendhat, Alex Burghart and Katie Lam are among several notable exceptions, but Badenoch should do all she can to bring back previous senior ministers still in the House – such as former deputy PM Oliver Dowden, cabinet members Kit Malthouse and Esther McVey, and the shadow chancellor she sacked this August, Mel Stride. Lord Moynihan, sports minister under Margaret Thatcher, still ferociously energetic at 71, with vast experience from business and sport, is one of Badenoch’s shadow energy ministers. He would make a brilliant party chairman.
Above all, Badenoch should twist every sinew to lure back Jeremy Hunt, whose 11 years in cabinet – including stints as foreign secretary and chancellor – are longer than Badenoch and all her front bench combined. Hunt’s recent book shows he’s bubbling with policy ideas, though he’s under threat in his Surrey seat where the Lib Dems came within 900 votes in 2024.
Don’t forget her predecessor Rishi Sunak either, or Andy Street who was a highly effective mayor of the West Midlands. Tim Montgomerie, who recently quit Reform, should be welcomed back into the party. Badenoch should also find a big role for the brilliant commentator Matthew Syed, who last year joined the party having once stood for Labour.
Badenoch has a duty to the country – not just her party – to get the Conservatives firing on all cylinders. Britain needs an effective opposition, people who offer a serious alternative to the incompetents currently paraded by Reform. Badenoch often cites Margaret Thatcher as her political heroine, as a tough, ideological leader. But she should remember that Thatcher was also pragmatic, and gave major roles to effective middle of the road Conservatives like Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Chris Patten. And Thatcher won three elections. Badenoch isn’t yet on course to win one.
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