The Government’s “one in, one out” deal to send small boat migrants back to France has come to an end today, after the French government opted not to extend the scheme.
Under the terms of the deal, which launched in August 2025 and was agreed by Sir Keir Starmer’s government, migrants attempting the crossing faced being forcibly returned to France in exchange for asylum seekers who have not tried to enter the UK illegally.
At the time, Starmer described the deal as “groundbreaking” because it would help to deter the number of people crossing the Channel illegally.
“There is no silver bullet here, but with a united effort, new tactics and a new level of intent, we can finally turn the tables,” he said.
But what do the figures tell us about how effective the scheme actually was?
Deal cost £56,000 for every person sent back to France
On Wednesday, the Home Office announced the pilot scheme is “no longer processing new cases”.
The flagship scheme was reportedly shelved over France demanding a Europe-wide deal instead, and due to nations being reluctant to increase the numbers of people exchanged.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs this month that the deal cost about £56,000 for every person sent back to France.
Many migrants deported back to France under the deal have been sleeping homeless in Paris, while others have returned to the camps around Calais and Dunkirk. Some have made the Channel crossing back to England.
A Government source told The Guardian: “We would like to see the deal continue. But it’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t because it never got to the scale where it would have been a proper deterrent to people coming to the UK in small boats.”
Analysis of Home Office data by The i Paper found that the number of migrants entering and being prevented from entering the UK by boat has fluctuated over the past two years.
This trend has continued since the scheme was introduced.
It also revealed that despite the efforts of the Government to dissuade asylum seekers from attempting to navigate the crossing, thousands are still doing so each month, although the number of illegal migration attempts is lower than last year.
Migrant arrivals by boat dropped considerably between August last year, when 4,826 migrants entered the country, and same month this year, when 3,163 entered.
There has been previous suggestions that the “one in, one out” scheme is failing, including experts that told The i Paper this month that “worrying “gaps” in the monitoring of UK and French coastlines are allowing small boat migrants to cross undetected.
Last week, two small boats made it to the Kent coast undetected amid a new trend of smuggling gangs launching boats from further down the French coast – prompting the Home Secretary to call it “not acceptable”.
Prior to this, only one other “uncontrolled landing” – a small boat turning up without UK patrol boats escorting – had been recorded since records began in 2023.
Last month, nearly 800 migrants in 10 boats crossed the Channel – a record number for this year.
Contingency plans have been introduced further down the South Coast from Kent, where most asylum seekers have been collected by rescuers and Border Force.
It comes amid gangs launching boats further down the French coast – a transition from the Calais to Dover route migrants have typically taken.
Why scheme ending ‘will not lead to increased illegal migration’
Experts told The i Paper the figures show the scheme has been ineffective, and it ending will not lead to an increase in illegal migration to the UK .
Lucy Moreton, spokesperson for the Immigration Service Union representing the Home Office’s Border Force staff, said: “Whilst the ‘one in, one out’ scheme had potential, it never delivered what was hoped for. Ending it will have little to no impact on the issue if irregular migration.”
Bella Mosselmans, director of the Global Strategic Litigation Council for refugee rights, a network that supports asylum seekers, believes “beyond the figures”, the scheme has “put the human rights of refugees and migrants at serious risk”, for various reasons such as them being detained in “prison-like” processing centres where their basic health needs are not properly met.
She added: “While we welcome its end, we are deeply concerned about what comes next and urge the Government to clarify its plans.”
As part of the deal, 1,117 asylum seekers were moved to Britain from France from August 2025 to June 2026, while slightly fewer (1,087) were deported, according to Home Office data.
Deportation flights are set to continue in the coming weeks for those who have already been detained.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “We continue to work with France to relentlessly tackle small boat crossings, and we’ve made real progress.
“Numbers are significantly down on last year and crossings this summer were the lowest in six years. The Government’s pilot with France to remove asylum seekers in exchange for an equal number of legal migrants is no longer processing new cases.
“However, flights will continue over the coming weeks to swiftly remove small boat migrants from the UK, and we will use lessons learned from the pilot to accelerate efforts to return small boat migrants with no right to remain in the UK.”
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