It’s time for Week 5 of the 2026 college football season.
Each week in this space, I attempt to predict 5 outright upsets for the upcoming slate. Last week was the best of the season so far — I hit on 3 of the 5 picks, including Iowa’s buzzer-beating win over Michigan.
Hopefully the hot streak continues in Week 5.
College football upset predictions
Here are 5 upset picks for this week:
North Texas over Tulsa
Tulsa is set to get quarterback Baylor Hayes back this week, but I still like the Mean Green to go into Skelly Field and get a win. North Texas has been better than expected this season after losing Eric Morris, Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and others to Oklahoma State. Former West Virginia coach Neal Brown is off to a good start — UNT is 14th nationally in yards per play through the first 4 weeks of the season. Tulsa has been a little underwhelming since its Week 1 win over Oklahoma State, winning a close game over Sam Houston State and getting blown out by Arkansas as a touchdown underdog.
Pick: North Texas to win (49% on Kalshi)
Northwestern over Penn State
This is the first home game for Northwestern in its brand new Ryan Field, so the Wildcats should have a legit homefield advantage in this game. More importantly, quarterback Aiden Chiles looks like a legit difference-maker. Northwestern’s offensive coaching staff in general is excellent with Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator and Jerry Neuheisel as quarterbacks coach. I don’t mind fading Penn State coming off of an embarrassing collapse against Wisconsin, either.
Pick: Northwestern to win (45% on Novig)
Auburn over Tennessee
Faizon Brandon might not be ready to play week-in and week-out at this level, unfortunately. His efficiency and production have fallen off a cliff against P4 opposition this year. Byrum Brown hasn’t been great either, but I’d still give Auburn the edge at quarterback in this game given his level of experience overall. If Brandon struggles mightily again, as he did vs. Georgia Tech and Texas, Auburn could absolutely pull off the outright upset.
Pick: Auburn to win (29% on Kalshi)
Prediction Markets Auburn at Tennessee Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Tennessee 72% Auburn 30% PredictKentucky over South Carolina
I think we may be witnessing the beginning of the end for Shane Beamer at South Carolina. The Gamecocks just have never got it going again after their 9-3 campaign in 2024. LaNorris Sellers hasn’t been good since South Carolina’s season-opener against Kent State and now star pass rusher Dylan Stewart will miss this game due to suspension. Kentucky played poorly last time out against South Alabama, but I imagine the staff spent a lot of extra time preparing for the Gamecocks last week. I think Kentucky has the better coaching staff and the more talented offense.
Pick: Kentucky to win (43% on Novig)
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Cal over UNLV
Look, there’s not much to be inspired by with this Cal team. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been wildly disappointing by any metric. But I don’t think this UNLV squad is any good at all and I can’t think of one good reason why it should be favored against a P4 opponent. For context, Cal was a 2.5-point home dog against Clemson last week and is +2.5 again this week in Las Vegas. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison because one game was at home and the other on the road, but it’s also not that different — it’s not as if Cal or UNLV’s home fields are worth a full field goal against the spread. I think this is the bottom of the market on Cal and a decent time to buy in.
Pick: Cal to win (45% on Kalshi)
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