We have learned about security incidents from nearly every major AI company, American and Chinese, built on both open and closed models. The leading AI labs are openly debating whether to pace their frontier model development, and the government is working out what role it plays in that decision.
I believe AI companies are right to want to pace the frontier. But we need to stay ahead of China while we pace, because a world where China leads the global AI competition threatens America’s interests.
China has its own reasons to take AI safety seriously. The Chinese Minister of State Security recently said publicly that the greatest risk advanced AI poses to China is the risk it poses to the stability of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Beijing is no more interested in powerful AI systems wreaking socio-political havoc than Washington is; both countries have incentives to align on certain safety standards or even just a shared understanding of AI risks. It is in neither country’s interest for companies to lose control of their AI systems or for AI to be used to create bioweapons by rogue actors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of a possible AI dialogue with Chinese counterparts after his meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is a tangible sign that China sees at least some space for cooperation here.
Even if we don’t reach agreement on a shared set of standards, starting a dialogue and opening those lines of communication are critical—just as we did in 2008 during the financial crisis, when it was in our mutual benefit to coordinate. And we spent decades during the Cold War in careful, ongoing dialogue with the Soviet Union about nuclear arms control because the risks to both countries were enormous. During that time we developed zero-trust methods to verify arms control agreements even while locked in an adversarial relationship.
We also need to tighten remaining gaps in our semiconductor manufacturing equipment controls so China can less capably obtain tools to manufacture powerful chips at scale and service their pre-existing equipment. That work has to happen with our Dutch, Japanese, and German allies and partners who manufacture and service this chipmaking equipment.
American AI
China has certainly indigenized much of its AI stack, something Xi publicly made a priority in his Made in China 2025 plan, many years before the U.S. government was talking openly about chips or models. And China has made progress on this plan. But it is clear to many that China’s most competitive models, to some degree, are ripping off American ones. American AI labs should be allocating even greater amounts of their money and compute towards finding and exposing this kind of activity so that policymakers—and the public—can adapt accordingly.
The risks and benefits of AI are enormous, something more and more Americans have come to realize as AI advances more quickly than we previously thought possible. There is much to do on AI safety at home, to ensure our society and economy are resilient to the dramatic changes AI will bring. But I also know that safe deployment of AI is only possible if we successfully manage our relationship with China—both by maintaining our technological lead and working towards collaboration.
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