Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
So to see where voters really are right now, we’re checking in with Melissa Toufanian, the executive director of the progressive group Navigator Research, which has done interesting polling lately on public sentiment about Trump. Melissa, thanks for coming on.
Sargent: So let’s start with some of these leaks. One Iowa Republican strategist told The Washington Post that this midterm could rival the Dem rout in 2006, saying, “it feels like it could be a wipeout.” Lots of stuff like that coming out of Iowa.
Toufanian: It’s funny to hear that, because I was just in Iowa a few weeks ago, and I sat down with two different focus groups with farmers. So these farmers were mostly lean Republicans, strong Republicans. Almost all of them voted for Trump. And what we heard from them is that Trump’s tariffs, and the market volatility caused by those tariffs, is a huge pain point for them.
Sargent: And are these Trump voters who are speaking to you guys in focus groups, are they blaming Trump for the situation? What’s the nuance there?
So there was that group. But then there was a far more pessimistic group that said, like, I don’t think he has a plan. I don’t think there’s a grand strategy whatsoever. I’m just feeling it in my business, in my family’s expenses. All I’m getting are higher costs.
First, he talks about how stupendous the economy is, then says:
The stuff at the end there about voting for Republicans is in caps. He’s really, really, really starting to unravel, I think. Melissa, your outfit polled recently in a bunch of states that Trump carried by large margins. What did you find?
He’s underwater in each of those states. And looking at Iowa in particular, he is most underwater. He’s underwater by 17 points. So in states that helped him get back to the White House, people are now deeply pessimistic about how he’s handling the economy, his job overall as president, and especially the war with Iran.
Sargent: I think it’s worth underscoring how red that territory is. You know, this cycle is a weird one, where all of a sudden we’re talking about places like Iowa and Texas flipping. But that’s, like, really crazy.
Toufanian: Yeah. And these states—Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas—I mean, they’re Republican-controlled states. And Republicans have held power for a very long time. People in these states, looking at our data, looking at other polling, have been really down on Democrats.
An interesting trend that we saw in the data is there’s a growing number of people who, when we ask about party trust—which party do you trust more to deliver on the issues you care about most?—we’re seeing a lot of people in that “neither party, don’t know” category, meaning that they’re feeling frustrated about politics in America right now, and in our political parties and our political system.
Toufanian: No, I think you raise a really good point. There are really two things that we’ve been keeping an eye on from Navigator. So the first is kind of that intensity of disapproval. So take a state—we’ve been talking about Iowa, right?
I think the other piece that we’ve been tracking closely at Navigator is this what we call gap in focus. So this idea, in every single survey wave—so every single month, we ask Americans, what do you want your elected officials, the president and Congress, to focus on? And then, what do you think Trump and Republicans in Congress are most focused on?
When we ask people, what do you think Trump and Republicans in Congress are focused on? Overwhelmingly, it’s immigration, foreign conflicts. And if you notice, what I said people want their elected officials to focus on is not at all what they perceive Trump and Republicans in Congress focusing on.
Sargent: OK, so in all four battlegrounds, only 2 percent think that Trump and Republicans are focused on health care?
In talking about those Iowa focus groups that I mentioned that were with farmers, one farmer said, you know, our elected officials, they go off to Washington, I think they should wear a NASCAR jacket that shows you who they’re sponsored by. And they just—this feeling that they don’t have their interests at heart, and that they’re not delivering for them.
Toufanian: I mean, what they’re telling us is the most important issue is affordability, right? So I think it’s extremely important, no matter what the party, to talk about these cost-of-living issues, because that’s where people are struggling. I mean, across our data, whether it’s in our data or in our focus groups, I mean, we’re hearing about people who are skipping meals.
So the most important thing for any elected official that I can glean from our data is to connect with people on the issues they care about most, and that is absolutely cost of living.
And then he said: “The Fake News Media REFUSES to report this rather significant development, however!!!”
Toufanian: And the irony is, if you look back to the Biden administration, that something that everyone should take note of is, when people are feeling a certain way, when people are upset, when they’re struggling, if you tell them, actually, just look at the numbers, we’re doing great—I mean, it doesn’t work.
And so to be told that their concerns and their worries, especially when it comes to their personal financial situation, to how they’re going to take care of their families—to say that that’s a hoax, I mean, it doesn’t land with people. It doesn’t resonate at all. And if anything, it just adds to their anger and frustration about elected officials in the political system.
Toufanian: I think that the other piece that we’re seeing that should be a warning sign, to show just how disconnected this is, is now we’re seeing Republican defections on support for the war with Iran. Because in our polling, that shows that is one of the issues that people are opposed to. They don’t think it was worth it.
Sargent: Well, let’s talk a little bit about what your firm has found in terms of why people are really rejecting Trump. It’s a complicated thing, right? It isn’t just the economy. You guys polled on what you called Trump regretters, who are voters who regret their support for Trump in the past. What’d you find there?
And then when we ask them, you know, why do you regret your vote, what started to make you feel that way—the major answers are broken promises, the war with Iran, and high prices. A lot of times people are just telling us that the economy isn’t working. Trump said that he would keep us out of wars. We’re in another one.
Sargent: Right. I don’t think anybody understands why the hell he’s doing this in Iran. And I think that really cuts very, very deep for him.
And even more and more people, especially independents—which, you talk about, that is a key category to keep an eye on right now—even independents are becoming more pessimistic about the war. And we found, when you remind people of the costs, they turn even more negative on it.
Toufanian: Yeah, we said the highest level are people of color, our young voters. Even white suburban moms was one group. It’s really moms—moms regret their vote at a higher level than dads. So there’s some very interesting pieces kind of within that overall number.
And they decided that the business guy could really snap his fingers and get stuff moving again. And those are the people that are moving away from him now. That’s the MAGA coalition kind of coming apart, isn’t it?
We also, on top of that, have ICE and immigration enforcement that they’re seeing that is driving disapprovals, especially among Latino voters. We spoke with several different groups of Latino voters who now regret their vote for Trump. And I mean, the regret was so deeply palpable, in these kind of heartbreaking stories of them talking about coworkers or, you know, family members who have been deported. And they said, you know, this is not what I voted for.
Toufanian: I mean, the other interesting piece too is that, you know, from Navigator, we break out MAGA Republicans, which is, you know, in some ways kind of this immovable coalition that they stick with Trump through everything. And then we say the non-MAGA Republicans. So it’s self-identified people who don’t identify within the MAGA wing of the party.
Sargent: Yes. And that’s how you can see your way to a wave election, right? Like, I just want to stress for people, you know, we’re still a month out. Things can go wrong. The polling could be wrong. You never know. But the data points we’re seeing right now are that Donald Trump is sliding in approval fairly steadily. He’s at 35 percent or under in some of the approval averages.
So just very bluntly, as a public opinion researcher yourself, do you think that what you’re seeing in all this data out there in the public realm—do you think it’s close to right or not?
But there is that about one in four people, sometimes as high as one in three, who just don’t trust either party. So I think the polling and the data may absolutely be correct as far as the results for the midterms and the direction in which we’re heading. But I would just say, the day after any elected official wins, you’ve got to start working on how to deliver.
Sargent: Right. All these dynamics can turn against Democrats real quick. We just saw them against Democrats two years ago. So I think maybe the way to understand the fact that both parties are roundly disapproved of by voters is to look at some of these individual Democratic candidates.
Does that look like what’s happening? I know you don’t poll on this stuff yourself, but as someone who follows this stuff as an educated consumer, do you think that these Democratic candidates probably are outrunning their party? Is that the dynamic?
That, like, what you said can absolutely be true. At the same time, there’s just, like, the fact that Republicans in Congress are not seen as focusing on the issues that Americans care about the most. And at the same time, again, in our battleground polling, Americans in those battleground states blame Republicans for this economy. They’re not pointing—you know, the majority of them are not pointing to the Biden administration. They’re pointing to their elected officials.
Sargent: Right. It seems like there’s a bunch of things that are lining up in a row that have to line up in a row. And right now they are. Melissa Toufanian, really great to talk to you. Thanks so much for talking to us.
Toufanian: Thanks for having me.
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