Revisiting the claims last week, Trump insisted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government was “destroying” Canada with its immigration policies that he said were “causing problems.” It’s “already showing up in their numbers,” he said on Sept. 23. “Big unemployment.” Trump had made similar claims in August, amid the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade negotiations. “Canada’s unemployment rate is now at 10%, and rapidly rising. Their businesses are fleeing for the U.S., and it’s all because of their failed policies, and inept leadership,” he falsely argued.
As Trump targets Canada’s unemployment rate, here’s what the data says about how the Canadian economy is currently faring.
The losses were concentrated in areas such as business, building, other support services, natural resources, and utilities. The number of public sector employees fell by 20,000 (0.4%), down for the third consecutive month.
Data from Statistics Canada shows the population of Canada reached an estimated 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425 people from July 1, 2025. This marked the “lowest annual July-to-July (or June to June before 1946) growth in the total size of the population since 1944/1945.”
Meanwhile, the employment rate in Canada—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—decreased slightly, from 60.9% to 60.8%.
“Broadly speaking, the labor market in Canada is doing just fine. The unemployment rate is relatively stable,” he adds. “Trump is [also] ranting about immigration as a big problem, but right now Canada's immigration rate is actually quite low.”
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the unemployment rate in August also remained unchanged at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, slightly below the 4.3% recorded in August 2025.
The surveys cover slightly different populations: Canada’s unemployment figures include people as young as 15, while the U.S. begins counting once people are 16.
Trump has frequently touted U.S. unemployment rates and job growth. In April, he celebrated March job and unemployment figures, and again in September he called the addition of 162,000 jobs in August “great news” for a “thriving economy.”
Read More: 'Buy Canadian': Meet the Consumers Boycotting American Products as Trade Rift Widens
Trade uncertainty amid the U.S.-Canada standoff
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Sept. 25 said there was “no urgency” on the U.S. side to reach an agreement.
In response, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada is “always ready to talk to the Americans about trying to find the right agreement," but stressed the country is not “desperate” to reach a trade deal with the U.S. if it has to come at “any cost.”
“If you're a business, especially in one of these tariff-exposed industries, in an industry where the customer base is in large part in the U.S. this is not a time where you want to invest in a lot of new capital, and so that affects actual job creation, the labor demand side of the economy is impacted,” says Skuterud.
“The most important thing for businesses is certainty, predictability. They've got to know where their customer base is going to be, where their sales are going to be, and there's a lot of uncertainty in those industries right now.”
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