Week 4 is the first truly loaded conference slate of the 2026 SEC regular season, featuring elite matchups such as No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee, No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida and No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU, to name a few.
The Saturday Down South staff picked 5 SEC matchups this week. Let’s jump right into the selections.
(All odds are via DraftKings, finalized on Thursday, Sept. 24. Point spreads might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 4 Picks ATS
Here’s how the SDS crew picked 5 SEC games in Week 4 (against the spread).
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2026 Season Records
Spenser Davis: 9-9 Andy Olson: 6-12 Adam Spencer: 8-10 Ethan Stone: 14-4Texas (-4) at Tennessee
Spenser Davis: It took awhile, but I think Texas knows how to get the most out of Arch Manning. The Longhorns are loaded at every position on offense and appear to have a great defense, too. I’m just not sure we know as much about this Tennessee team with a true freshman quarterback and a new defensive coordinator. PICK: Texas -4
Andy Olson: A couple of months ago, some of my trivia buddies and I tried a new spot on Tuesday nights. We hadn’t really settled on a name, so we were rotating through some punny things to get laughs. A week ago, the Knoxville native in our group suggested Vols Deep as our team name. We got our first win. Tuesday night, we ran it back with Vols Deep and won again. I think it’s a sign. PICK: Tennessee +4
Adam Spencer: Tennessee hasn’t been tested yet. Texas has. I hate picking against the trivia karma Andy has with that incredible team name, but I think the Longhorns will pull off a hard-fought win with some more fourth-quarter magic. PICK: Texas -4
Ethan Stone: I think Arch Manning is going to struggle in front of a raucous crowd at Neyland Stadium. Manning has a history of underperforming on the road against competent defenses, and Tennessee boasts a 71% pressure rate on dropbacks of longer than 2.5 seconds this year – the best mark in the nation. I’m a little worried about the Vols’ interior offensive line, but I still think Tennessee wins this one outright. Definitely no bias here… PICK: Tennessee +4
Prediction Markets Texas at Tennessee Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Texas 65% Tennessee 36% PredictOklahoma at Georgia (-14)
Spenser Davis: Remember 2 weeks ago when everyone was talking about how bad Michigan was and then the public overwhelmingly bet on Oklahoma to win as a road favorite in Ann Arbor? That feels like a very long time ago given where public sentiment is now with the Sooners. Maybe Oklahoma gets blown out, but we really don’t know much about this Georgia team either if you look at its strength-of-schedule. I think 14 points is too many. PICK: Oklahoma +14
Andy Olson: Georgia looks like the best team in the country right now. It’s a bad time for Oklahoma to have to play the Bulldogs in Athens. PICK: Georgia -14
Adam Spencer: I’ll defer to Spenser, our resident Oklahoman, on this game. If he thinks this defense can help the Sooners keep it to within 2 scores, that’s good enough for me. PICK: Oklahoma +14
Ethan Stone: Georgia is going to demolish this Oklahoma offensive line. I’d be surprised to see the Sooners find the end zone more than once offensively. PICK: Georgia -14
Ole Miss at Florida (-3.5)
Spenser Davis: As good as Ole Miss has been, on principle I have to fade Pete Golding’s bunch coming off of a pair of 1-score wins in primetime. At some point, I expect we’ll see some regression for Ole Miss — especially given its defensive struggles. It’s also pretty easy to back a Florida team with 2 elite coordinators at home. PICK: Florida -3.5
Andy Olson: It’s hard to pick against Ole Miss when it has the better quarterback and the better defense. More years than not, though, there’s one game when The Swamp crowd is the deciding factor. I expect The Swamp to be an absolute insane asylum on Saturday. There hasn’t been this kind of energy and alignment with Gator Nation in a while. PICK: Florida -3.5
Adam Spencer: Florida being favored in this game was a gift for Pete Golding. If Ole Miss had been favored, it would be a classic letdown spot. But now Golding gets to play the “nobody believes in us” card. PICK: Ole Miss +3.5
Ethan Stone: This one is tough, but I can’t bet against Trinidad Chambliss given what he’s done at the end of games this year. Florida’s offense is good enough to keep them in this – I could see Saturday’s matchup in The Swamp decided by a field goal either way. PICK: Ole Miss +3.5
Texas A&M at LSU (-8.5)
Spenser Davis: I think Texas A&M got caught looking ahead last week. Marcel Reed isn’t a great QB, but he’s not as bad as he showed against the Wildcats. I think this is an interesting bounce-back spot for the Aggies and I’ll back them since they’re catching more than a touchdown. PICK: Texas A&M +8.5
Andy Olson: One of Florida or Ole Miss is going to be 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the SEC after The Bridesmaid Bowl in Gainesville. There’s a chance that Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers drop to 2-2 overall and 0-2 in the SEC on Saturday night. I don’t think it’s a very good chance, but maybe the football gods have a sense of humor. PICK: LSU -8.5
Adam Spencer: Marcel Reed seems to have regressed as a passer, which is a worrying sign. LSU’s defense looks like one of the top units in the entire country. That’s not a good combo for the Aggies. I think Lane Kiffin and company take out their frustrations on the reeling Aggies. PICK: LSU -8.5
Ethan Stone: I’m definitely not picking LSU to lose this one, the real question is whether the Aggies can cover the spread. LSU has turned the ball over 6 times this season, which is more than any other team in the conference (tied with Oklahoma.) Alternatively, Texas A&M has forced more turnovers than any SEC team aside from Alabama. I’ll bet on A&M winning the turnover battle, which should produce at least a higher chance at a closer game. PICK: Texas A&M +8.5
Prediction Markets Texas A&M at LSU Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi LSU 76% Texas A&M 25% PredictMizzou at Mississippi State (-6.5)
Spenser Davis: No P4 team has out-performed Vegas expectations more than Mississippi State this season. The Bulldogs have beaten the number by about 18 points per game through Week 3, but oddsmakers are sure to adjust. I’m not too worried by Mizzou’s bad performance against Troy given that the Tigers had been solid against Kansas the week before, but I do think that’s probably the reason why this number is closer to 7 than 4. I’ll take the points. PICK: Mizzou +6.5
Andy Olson: I like Austin Simmons, and Eli Drinkwitz has consistently had Mizzou as a well-coached team ready to hold its own with anyone in the SEC. Famous last words – I’m buying the Mississippi State hype right now. I think Kamario Taylor and the cowbells clang their way to a touchdown win at home. PICK: Mississippi State -6.5
Adam Spencer: I think this is a case of Mizzou not being as bad as it looked last week against Troy combined with Mississippi State not being as good as it has looked all year. Are we sure Minnesota has a pulse? The South Carolina situation is getting tense with Shane Beamer. At the very least, I think the Tigers can keep this game within a touchdown. PICK: Mizzou +6.5
Ethan Stone: The spread makes this tough because I expect a close game, but Kamario Taylor vs. Mizzou’s questionable secondary is enough to pick the Bulldogs by a touchdown. Also, Austin Simmons said the cowbells annoy him earlier this week – which is not the message you want to relay to Mississippi State fans before travelling to Starkville. PICK: Mississippi State -6.5
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Friday Forecast: SDS Staff picks 5 Week 4 matchups against the spread Saturday Down South.
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