Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are among four Reform MPs who would lose their seats if a general election were held tomorrow, fresh polling by YouGov shows.
Tory defector Danny Kruger and Sarah Pochin – who beat Labour in a 2025 by-election – would also be unseated, according to the leading UK pollster’s first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became prime minister.
Reform’s leader Nigel Farage would hold onto Clacton with a 47 per cent majority, while the party’s MP for Romford, Andrew Rosindell – another defector – would keep his seat in a loss for the Tories.
But the party would have fewer seats that the Tories overall, marking a significant fall when compared to last year’s polling.
The MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) poll – a statistical modelling technique that combines a large survey with other sources including census data – also provides more evidence of the “Burnham bounce” which has seen Labour recently climb in the polls.
It predicts that Labour would be the biggest party in a hung Parliament if an election were to be held tomorrow, raising speculation that the next government could be formed by coalition.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey recently ruled out forming a coalition with Reform and dismissed suggestions he could do a deal with the Tories, but stopped short of excluding a coalition with Labour, saying he did not deal in “hypotheticals”.
But to form a Parliamentary majority in this scenario, Burnham would need to work with Davey as well as either the SNP, predicted to win 40 seats, or Plaid Cymru, predicted to win 15.
It comes as Reform is preparing a huge expansion of its operations around the country in a bid to attract voters in areas where it does not have a foothold, including London, the South East, the South West and the East of England.
Analysis of Reform job adverts by The i Paper suggests the party is pumping resources into areas where it wants to keep its high-profile Tory defectors, with five roles advertised in the South East, the home of Braverman’s constituency, and three roles in London, where Rosindell’s seat is.
The YouGov poll projects Braverman’s Fareham and Waterlooville seat would remain Conservative, with the party taking 32 per cent of the vote compared with 25 per cent for Reform.
The Conservatives are also predicted to hold onto Jenrick’s Newark seat, with 37 per cent of the vote, and Kruger’s East Wiltshire seat, with 34 per cent, despite both senior Reform figures defecting away from Kemi Badenoch’s party.
Pochin’s Runcorn and Helsby seat, which was taken from Labour by just six votes in a by-election, would be returned with a 37 per cent majority. The by-election was triggered last year following the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury after he was convicted of assault.
Farage, his deputy leader Richard Tice and party chairman Lee Anderson are all forecast to hold onto their seats, with the poll predicting Reform would win a total of 123.
This is fewer than the 130 MPs predicted for the Tories, meaning the poll will be seen as a huge win for Badenoch – who was on course to win just 45 seats in last year’s forecasts.
The Tories and Reform are now sitting almost neck and neck in the polls, with Farage a far cry from the near majority of 311 seats his party was predicted to win in previous surveys.
The MRP will also be seen as a success for Labour. If replicated, the party’s 241 seats would be a loss of 170 compared to Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide win in 2024 – but a vast improvement on last year’s forecasts, which projected that the party would be reduced to just 144 seats.
The Liberal Democrats are predicted to hold steady on 71 seats – just one fewer than they won in 2024. Meanwhile, the Greens are projected to gain five, taking Zack Polanski’s party to nine, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) would have 40 and Plaid Cymru 15.
Starmer’s former Holborn and St Pancras seat, which Polanski is currently campaigning to win in a by-election on 8 October, is projected to give Labour 44 per cent of the vote compared with just 20 per cent for the Greens.
YouGov surveyed 17,000 people between 23 August and 18 September.
Hence then, the article about reform s top two tory defectors at risk of losing their seats poll shows was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Reform’s top two Tory defectors at risk of losing their seats, poll shows )
Also on site :
- Paige DeSorbo on Healing From Domestic Violence With Her Pet: ‘Sometimes the Thing That Helps You Feel Safe Again Has Four Paws’
- Mikayla Matthews Reveals If She’s Reconsidering ‘Mormon Wives’ Exit After Taylor Frankie Paul’s Departure
- 1979 Country-Rock Ballad, Written for Linda Ronstadt in a Colorado Cabin, Became a Cross-Generational Hit