“My head says 10 per cent, but my heart? Well, let’s go for 20 per cent,” says Somerset member and well-known Twitterer Dan Kingdom.
Given Somerset have been trying to win the County Championship for 136 years, they would probably take those odds going into their game against Surrey at Taunton in the coming days.
Somerset are not alone in having a notable hole in their trophy cabinet: neither Northamptonshire nor Gloucestershire have won a tournament first played for in 1890.
The difference here is that Jason Kerr’s side have finished second in Division One six times in the 21st century – a number which rises to seven if you take into account their defeat to Essex in the final of the Bob Willis Trophy in the Covid-hit 2020 season.
Somerset came close in 2020, beaten in the one-off final of a Covid-hit tournament (Photo: Getty)Defeat to Yorkshire last week swung the advantage firmly in favour of Warwickshire, who go into the final matchday with an 11-point lead.
Any football fan would see that figure and immediately write off both the West Country bridesmaids and reigning champions Nottinghamshire.
But this is English cricket. This is September. Surely anything is possible?
“I suppose, in a curious way, I’m less nervous after the defeat at Yorkshire,” says former Somerset spinner and Test Match Special regular Vic Marks. “We need so many things to go right. If we were five points ahead, then the nerves would be greater.”
That’s something Somerset supporters can cling to: the fact that, unlike in previous title tilts, they go into Thursday playing catch-up.
Last time Surrey visited Taunton in the County Championship…What an incredible finish this was, absolute limbs! #YouAreSomerset pic.twitter.com/2dIwHrrjKP
— Somerset Cricket (@SomersetCCC) September 21, 2026“They’re the hunter rather than the hunted, which in some ways could make things easier,” says Marks.
The 11-point deficit, though, means Somerset need everything to go their way – including the toss.
“Just winning that would seem like a triumph,” says Kerr. “I don’t know when we last won one, but I do know that we’ve lost seven in a row.”
Bonus points could be crucial.
“Win the toss, get 400, bowl Surrey out twice, and then sit there and hope for a miracle,” says Kingdom.
There we go. Simple.
Hoodoos are nothing new in global sport, as any Boston Red Sox fan will tell you. The Curse of the Bambino – which began when Babe Ruth’s contract was sold to the New York Yankees in 1920 – meant the Red Sox would not win the championship again until 2004.
Taunton – sometimes known as ‘Ciderbad’ for its favourite drink and spin-friendly surface – will be packed at the weekend (Photo: Getty)Perhaps domestic cricket’s nearest parallel is South Australia in the Sheffield Shield. When they finally won the crown in 2025, it broke a 29-year drought. In comparison to Somerset’s 136-year wait, that is a mere footnote.
“There was a pitch invasion when they did it,” laughs Kingdom. “If Somerset finally do it this week, then I can see another at Taunton… you could never order enough cider!”
Still, it’s not like Somerset haven’t been here before.
“In our era, we were conscious of the fact we had never won anything,” says Marks. “We got to the Gillette Cup final in 1978 – with a side containing Ian Botham, Viv Richards, and Joel Garner – but lost to Sussex. During that period, there was just a desperation to win something. Anything.”
Somerset finally broke that duck in grand style in 1979, winning both the Gillette Cup against Northamptonshire and the John Player League.
In keeping with the county’s penchant for self-destruction, though, they were thrown out of the Benson and Hedges Cup in the same season. The TCCB – by a vote of 17 to 1 (no prizes for guessing the one) – ejected them after captain Brian Rose declared after one over of Somerset’s group stage match against Worcestershire to maintain their run rate and qualify.
No wonder Somerset supporters were reaching for the cigarettes – in bountiful supply during the golden age of tobacco sponsorship.
That said, the past will have little impact on the present or the very near future as Surrey come to town and Warwickshire limber up to take on relegation-threatened Leicestershire at Edgbaston.
“A lot of these guys are so young that they’ll only know what has happened in the past ten years, maybe less,” says Kerr. “The past won’t mean anything to them; they’ll just be focusing on what will happen in the next four days.”
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Chris Stocks: I covered Mark Wood’s whole career – he is England’s great ‘what if’ Kevin Garside: Ben Stokes is embarrassing himselfIf anything, Somerset’s struggles don’t usually extend to the final day of the season. The damage has often been done in the penultimate match, as it was during their 185-run loss to Yorkshire at Headingley last week on a pitch that drew criticism from the visitors.
The surface that will greet Surrey looks set to be markedly different.
“It looks a belter,” says Kerr.
All of which should ensure a bumper crowd on days one and two – and potentially more for the weekend.
“It could be over by Saturday, but if it’s not, then there will only be one place to be,” says Kingdom.
To borrow a phrase from Ted Lasso, there will be one word ringing around the famous old ground: “Believe…”
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