The world’s two most powerful men will come face to face on Thursday when China’s President Xi Jinping meets Donald Trump at the White House. Despite talks of a low-stakes event, tensions are likely to be high, with both men needing a win to sell to a weary public back home.
The summit comes during Xi’s three-day state visit to the United States, and at a critical moment for relations between the world’s two leading powers. And there is plenty for them to discuss – including trade and tariffs, AI, critical minerals, Iran, Russia and Taiwan.
Despite the complexity of a relationship that often encourages commentators to describe the US and China as part of a new Cold War that’s either just about to break out – or has already done so – Trump has often been full of praise for his Chinese counterpart. “Xi is a terrific guy. I like being with him a lot, and he’s a very special person,” he said in 2017.
Asked about Xi earlier this summer, Trump responded: “He’s a friend of mine, he’s a good man… he’s for China. I’m for the USA.”
Xi’s challenge in Washington is to translate a seemingly good relationship with his American counterpart into tangible gains.
China’s leader arrives at a good moment to do this. Trump’s misadventures in Iran have damaged the US’s standing abroad. Pressures on the global economy due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have turned into one of the greatest own goals of international geopolitics, made worse by Trump’s insistence that tariffs can and will redress global trade imbalances.
The effect has been to push inflation upwards. And with the US midterm elections barely a month out, many Americans are being hit where it hurts them the most: in their wallets.
At face value, then, Trump is negotiating from a position of weakness, and Xi from one of strength. Things, however, are not quite so simple.
Trump and Xi in in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2017. Both leaders will go into their latest summit cautious and needing a win (Photo: Jim Watson/AFP)China’s impressive recent export performances – it reported a trade surplus of more than $110bn in July, and an even higher number in August – are masking weaknesses at home. A major property slump, subdued domestic demand and heavy debts at local government level mean that its factories need foreign customers more than ever.
Xi has a strong interest in preventing a trade war from flaring up again, and in putting economic relations with Washington on a more predictable footing. In short, both men have a lot more at stake than usual.
At the same time, meetings like this latest summit are important because personal chemistry always matters when leaders get together. They’re even more important when those at the top wield disproportionate power domestically – as both Trump and Xi do.
As China’s economy has grown, and Beijing has poured resources into technology, military power and global influence, it has emerged not only as a superpower but as America’s main long-term rival. Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State, said last month: “China wants to become the most powerful country in the world, and they want to do so at our expense. Obviously, we are Americans; we’re not going to allow that to happen.”
But it has been a hallmark of Trump’s presidencies that he speaks more admiringly about and with powerful autocrats than with leaders of liberal democracies, who are typically chided as weak and ineffective. He has praised Xi for running a country of 1.4 billion people “with a pretty iron fist”.
China’s property crisis has left millions of unfinished projects scattered across the country (Photo: Jade Gao/AFP)The fact that Trump’s respect for Xi appears genuine will make dealing with him tricky for Beijing. A closer friendship offers opportunities to get things done, but it is often hard to square smooth-sounding comments made by the US President with the hawkish positions adopted by almost all other current American politicians.
Moreover, China saw some of the latest Trump storm coming and made sure it was ready to apply pressure if and when the US tried to squeeze its economy. This involved thinking ahead about supply chains that might concentrate American minds – such as in critical minerals, which the US needs now more than ever as it races to replenish advanced weapons stocks that have been depleted by the war with Iran.
Trump desperately needs some good news to peddle to US voters, and will be thinking about how to get it from Xi. One way he can do this is to renew the reduced tariff rate agreed last year in South Korea – something that has enabled China to report record trade figures in recent months.
Xi could, in return, help out by agreeing to boost agricultural imports – which would be good news for farmers in the US – or to place sizeable orders for American goods and services.
This situation creates somewhat of a dilemma for Xi: helping Trump strengthens a rival – but refusing to help risks reigniting a trade war that China wants to avoid. His objective will likely be less about striking a grand bargain, than to keep things simple. This means announcements that sound grand and ambitious but are likely to be short on detail and substance. Perhaps a mechanism for the two countries to notify each other about serious AI incidents.
The two leaders also met in Beijing in May. This time, both will want to show their domestic audiences that they are in control (Photo: Evan Vucci/Pool via AP)For Xi, the spectacle matters too. The high-profile meeting allows him to present himself as a global statesman – the theme of the last few weeks which took him to Kyrgyzstan, Egypt and India for state visits and summits. These had value for Chinese audiences, who can see their leader as instrumental in shaping the new world order. But it also has value elsewhere, at a time when the US is perceived to be acting unilaterally and out of its own self-interest.
The Washington summit gives Xi a chance to present himself not only as Trump’s peer – but as an alternative.
He comes to Washington, then, with a modest list of things to achieve: a renewal of the trade truce, some easing of economic tensions and, above all, stability. Trump, meanwhile, wants something he can present as a win. That gives both men an incentive to produce a summit that looks momentous, with reassuring words, but is thin on substance when you scratch below the surface.
In a world already struggling with wars, economic disruption and increasingly bitter competition between the US and China, that may sound decidedly underwhelming. But if the world’s two most powerful men can show everyone else that they are managing their differences rather than deepen them, that would be no small achievement.
Peter Frankopan is a professor of global history at Oxford University
Key context:
Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen dramatically since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, creating a worrying situation for his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections, which are taking place on 3 November. While Trump isn’t on the ballot, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over control of Congress, which could massively impact what the US President is able to achieve in his remaining year and a half in office. Many other key state and local roles, including governorships, are being fiercely contested. China should be able to take advantage of this. However, it is also facing its own internal challenges, with a weaker economic outlook and domestic frustrations over housing and other issues.Hence then, the article about trump and xi are both desperate for a win the stakes couldn t be higher was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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