The study used satellite data to map freshwater trends across the globe between 2002 and 2025. Thanks to a high-resolution rendering method, researchers revealed regional gains and reductions in terrestrial water storage that were 33% more marked, on average, than in previous studies. The amount of fresh water lost was much higher than the gains overall, highlighting the urgent need for better water management to stave off a global water crisis.
Researchers created a map of terrestrial freshwater trends from 2002 to 2025. They then attributed these trends to human and climate drivers. (Image credit: O'Neill, Rodell and Loomis, 2026. PNAS. (CC BY 4.0).)
The study also attributed the changes in freshwater storage to different human and climate drivers, said first author Mary Michael Forrester O'Neill, a researcher at the University of Maryland's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center and the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.
The researchers found 94 regions with above-background shifts in freshwater storage, 40 of which were influenced mainly by human land or water use, rather than climate variability and global warming. The team then focused on these 40 hotspots to pinpoint exactly where people can act to conserve water.
Freshwater gains in 22 regions were due to rain-fed agriculture, irrigation with surface water, reservoir impoundment and deforestation, which decreases evapotranspiration and plants' groundwater consumption, according to the study. In contrast, freshwater losses in the remaining 18 hotspots were caused by irrigation with groundwater and the construction of canals, diversions and other water infrastructure.
One example of a region that gained fresh water in the study is the area of central Russia that hosts the Boguchany Reservoir, a giant artificial lake that was filled in 2012 after the construction of a hydroelectric dam. And three stark examples of places that lost fresh water are northern India, southern Iran and the southern High Plains (a region at the intersection of Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), because these regions host major breadbaskets that tap aquifers for irrigation, O'Neill said.
One of the novelties of the paper is its very high resolution, said Chandanpurkar, who last year led a study describing "mega-drying" regions across the world and co-authored a report on continental drying. The new study used data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its Follow-On successor (GRACE-FO), which have measured subtle redistributions of mass on Earth. But unlike previous studies, the new research resolved the data in high resolution, he said, like correcting blurry vision with glasses.
The new study (A) produced a much sharper picture of freshwater trends than standard processing methods and previous studies did (B). (Image credit: O'Neill, Rodell and Loomis, 2026. PNAS. (CC BY 4.0).)
Scientists already knew that groundwater depletion and other human water uses are "quite staggering," and this study is a reminder that continental drying is "a very big deal," Chandanpurkar said. "Water is really undervalued," he said. "Giving it its proper dues would be essential for this [freshwater loss] to really be acknowledged by leaders and economists."
"GRACE satellites measure the rate of change in water mass, not the total volume stored in an aquifer, so we have no independent basis for estimating time to depletion or a timeline for systems to collapse," she said.
RELATED STORIESHowever, there will come a point when the cost of pumping groundwater, for example, will be too high to pay in some regions. Water table declines of just a dozen feet (a few meters) or so can cause a substantial share of wells to run dry, research shows, and the expense of drilling deeper will affect at-risk communities most of all, Forrester O'Neill said.
"We are most concerned about the rising cost and inequity of continuing to reach water that keeps retreating deeper underground, paired with strain on existing surface water resources," she said. "Of course, water-scarce regions exhibiting acute groundwater depletion are at risk, like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Türkiye, Iraq, and Libya. Another one to keep an eye on would be Mexico, simply because of the documented, progressively increasing well depth paired with the observed terrestrial water storage loss."
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