Trump acquiesced. He delayed a $14 billion arms package to Taiwan, said future weapons would be discussed as a “very good negotiating chip” with Beijing, questioned the island’s sovereignty as something “nobody knows how to define,” and stressed that he was not looking to fight a war “9,500 miles away”—all without securing any apparent reduction in Chinese military pressure in return.
“Taiwan is not a priority anymore,” Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Beijing's Renmin University, says of Xi’s impending visit. “The priority is definitely AI.”
However, one major skeptic is Trump, who responded on Truth Social that “AI taking over the World, destroying Humanity, and all other things bad, is a HOAX.” Moreover, he insisted that “President Xi, of China, just announced that China will be doing absolutely nothing to stand in the way of AI, or its future.”
The hope among safety advocates is that Xi and Trump might strike a deal on AI. While Trump’s first term was anchored in antipathy to China, he posed a notably different tone in Beijing, calling Xi “a man I respect greatly” and telling him that “it’s an honor to be your friend.” Although that cordiality does not erase the national competition that makes either side hesitant to constrain its technological development, it may put narrower cooperation on the table.
Trump also enters the summit under pressure, with soaring energy prices from the Iran war adding to voter discontent ahead of the midterms. “Trump needs a win more than Xi does,” says Jonathan Sullivan, head of China programs at the Asia Research Institute at the University of Nottingham.
While the deeply paranoid Chinese Communist Party (CCP) won’t allow its people to access Google or Facebook, it cannot countenance AI exhibiting the kind of autonomy that was on display in July. That month, a “swarm” of OpenAI agents circumvented sandbox controls, communicated through unauthorized channels, gained access to AI platform Hugging Face, compromised credentials, and accessed internal datasets while trying to game evaluations. It’s enough to give a regime built on control pause.
However, any agreement requires overcoming profound distrust. Even as Amodei argued for pacing frontier AI development, he framed it in terms of competing with China, whose “lead in AI would pose grave danger for the United States and the world.” On that score, he advocated stronger export controls on advanced semiconductors, a crackdown on chip smuggling, and greater efforts to prevent Chinese companies from “distilling” the capabilities of Western models.
Indeed, China was quick to leap on Amodei’s essay as an example of “fearmongering, confrontation and vicious competition [that] will only hamper efforts toward sound global AI governance, which serves no one’s interest,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said last week. A flurry of strident op-eds in state media followed, with the CCP mouthpiece Global Times calling the essay a “‘Cold War script’ for the AI field.”
But Amodei’s framing of AI as a zero-sum contest is far from an outlier—it is shared by a large chunk of the Trump administration. “There is no day after tomorrow if China wins at this,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sept. 8. “If they were to pull away from us on AI, then nothing else would matter.”
When Bessent met Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang on Sunday to thrash out summit objectives, he reportedly proposed a formal AI dialogue and a mechanism for each side to notify the other of AI incidents which threaten national security. Modest a measure it may be, it would be an important step towards avoiding some of the worst risks, says Scott Singer, a fellow and co-director of the China AI Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I wouldn’t take these small but critical steps for granted.”
To be sure, Beijing has not publicly endorsed the proposal. Even if it does, important questions remain. What, for example, would classify a national security threat? Its effectiveness would also depend on whether governments learned of serious incidents. OpenAI only reported its agents' autonomous cyberattack after Hugging Face, the target of the attack, reported the breach to the FBI. Independent researchers have since uncovered other apparent instances of OpenAI agents compromising websites.
With the stakes quickly rising, Singer says another prolonged hiatus from the negotiating table could prove disastrous. “Who knows where we’re going to be in June 2027,” he says with respect to AI development. “This cannot go off the rails.”
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