They will.
We will not be able to tell them that any of it is nonsense. We don’t think it is.
That is not an argument for complacency. The risks are real and demand immediate action. It is an argument for something we think is becoming equally necessary: pragmatic optimism.
Drug development has always been a brutal business. Historically, roughly nine out of 10 therapies entering human testing fail. A successful medicine can take a decade or more and billions of dollars to develop. But of course, those statistics obscure the real cost. A failed or missing medicine is a patient still waiting.
We have had the wonder of watching this shift in human insight and discovery direction being force-multiplied by AI up close. We recently watched a team of researchers use AI to design antibodies from scratch against some of the hardest targets in medicine, unlocking approaches that have stymied some of the most sophisticated groups in pharma. Nearby, another group of only five scientists used an AI-driven experimental system to move from an idea for a challenging new medicine to demonstrating what we believe are unique cancer-treating capabilities in a primate in less than six months. Programs with these ambitions would conventionally require teams of specialists working for years.
Last month, Merck and Moderna reported that a personalized cancer vaccine for melanoma significantly delayed the disease from spreading. The result is remarkable on its own, and studies are already underway in other settings. What we find particularly exciting is how this growing clinical evidence, combined with AI tools and automated labs, can open the field to more competitors. The evidence reduces uncertainty about the approach, while these tools can lower the cost and time required to pursue it. Together, they can bring more teams and more capital into our fight against cancer and expand the number of promising ideas that will be tested at an unprecedented rate.
Anyone claiming that AI has solved drug discovery is selling something. Of the 117 AI-enabled drug programs in human trials last year across 63 companies. Not one has been approved. Biology has humbled generations of brilliant scientists, and AI will not repeal biology. Models will be wrong. Drugs will fail. Patients will respond in ways nobody predicted.
That is the source of our optimism. Not the belief that the dangers surrounding AI are exaggerated, or that medicine is about to become easy. We believe neither. It comes from watching a technology begin to alter a field in which meaningful progress has historically been painfully slow.
They also deserve to know what else was happening at this moment.
And if all of that started to compound, the baseline of human health our children inherit started to be different from the one we inherited ourselves.
And that is a story worth telling too.
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