“We found that the emissions released since the signing of this Paris Agreement in 2015 have substantially and significantly increased the intensity of Europe's recent individual heat waves,” says lead author Jared Trok, a PhD student in Earth system science at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. The study also determined that that held true for Europe’s hottest week in every individual year since at least 2021.
Read more: In Europe, Today's Children Will Live Through Nearly Twice as Many Fire Weather Days Than Their Grandparents
Beyond the 1.5°C threshold, every extra fraction of a degree matters. The world can expect to see intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and flooding in coastal cities and island nations, along with far-reaching impacts to human health and food security.
The researchers created a generative AI model known as a diffusion model using simulated weather data from 10 global climate models to predict how extreme heat waves in Europe could have unfolded under different global emissions levels.
The team gave the model the observed weather conditions that caused Europe’s most intense annual heat waves from 2016 to 2025, which typically coincided with a persistent, high pressure system known as a heat dome. They had the model predict daily temperatures under emission levels at the time of each extreme heat event, and under the lower emissions levels of 2015.
Scientists have long known that the burning of fossil fuels trap greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, raising global temperatures. In recent decades, researchers have developed methods to study how historical emissions have affected heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and other extreme weather events. The researchers say that the methodology represents a step forward for climate modeling.
It also serves as a warning, says Diffenbaugh, noting that the emissions that have already been released will impact our climate regardless of any mitigation efforts we take going forward. “Even in the context of the most optimistic, ambitious future for reducing emissions, there's still more intensification of extremes that is essentially committed.”
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