Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
So we’re lucky to be talking about all this today with the Democratic pollster on that Alaska survey, John Anzalone. John, thank you so much for coming on.
Sargent: OK, so your new poll is with Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio. It’s for AARP. It’s a very good poll, and you find Democrat Mary Peltola leading GOP Senator Dan Sullivan by 46 percent to 41 percent.
Anzalone: There’s a couple things going on. First off is that, you know, Mary Peltola is a really good candidate. If you talk to people in Alaska, one of the big things about her candidacy is that they believe that she is an Alaskan, and her Alaska kind of defines her.
Peltola has a 60 percent favorable with independents, is plus 30 in the favorable, not favorable. Sullivan, again, just underwater with independents, because independents right now have left Republicans. And so Sullivan’s favorable among independents is at 26 percent, 53 percent unfavorable.
Sargent: Well, I’ve got to think that you’re not going to see something like this with independents, this kind of Republican collapse, without Donald Trump. Trump is underwater in Alaska in your poll, at 45 percent approve to 53 percent disapprove. That’s striking. Trump won Alaska in 2024 by 54 to 41. That’s a 13-point spread. He’s now eight points underwater. That’s a big swing.
Anzalone: Well, I think there’s two things. Absolutely correct. What’s stunning is that Trump’s disapproval is minus 38 with independents. The Democratic Party has terrible imaging; in this state, it’s underwater by 14 points. But the other thing is, the Republican Party’s image has collapsed from January, right? It’s minus seven here, not as bad as Democrats. But again, when you take a look at independents, the Democratic Party net favorable is only minus one. The Republican Party image is underwater by 34, even though statewide they have a better image—there’s more Republicans, et cetera, et cetera.
If you get in and talk to real people, they are struggling. And it’s not just a matter of that they are struggling—they don’t see a way out. And that’s where you get in real trouble, is, you know, how are they looking not only at the present, but the future? And that’s caused the Republicans a problem.
Sargent: Well, we are getting more signs of Republican panic. Republicans leaked to the Times that they’re quietly considering diverting resources away from the Georgia Senate race, which may mean they think Jon Ossoff’s win might be unstoppable at this point.
And another GOP consultant on a lot of top races literally sent a turd emoji to a HuffPost reporter who asked about how the polling is looking.
And, you know, when they’re doing it, they’re in Trump-plus states, and they’re releasing it just to show that it’s closer, it’s within the margin of error.
Anzalone: Fifty-four percent. Yeah.
Anzalone: Again, I think it’s about expectations. They elected this guy to be the economy president, and it was his biggest strength, and now it’s his biggest weakness. And, you know, they’re hurting. People are struggling. I mean, Texas is a great example.
I mean, Latino voters are persuadable voters, and they’re not going to be beholden to one party or the next. And right now they’re with Democrats. Again, young people and Latino voters are coming home, right? There’s good consolidation. African American voters, good consolidation.
Sargent: Yeah, he’s just a nasty fucker, let’s face it.
Sargent: Different. That’s the key, John.
Sargent: He’s something new. And I want to ask you about Talarico for a sec, because in your polling, the AARP polling of Texas, you find the Democratic Party really in the toilet, right? Which isn’t surprising, because it’s Texas.
Anzalone: You know, let me tell you what. I have a couple theories. One is just Paxton—they just don’t like Paxton.
But the other thing is that this is not an important issue to them. Like, they are worried about the cost of gasoline and ground beef and what it costs to get school supplies to send their kids to school. They’re concerned about the fact that health care is so expensive and insurance companies deny claims at a high rate. They’re concerned about the fact that groceries are so expensive and everything in their life is expensive. They’ll never be able to buy a home.
Sargent: Well, OK, let’s talk about some of these other outer-tier races. Do you take any of them seriously? Do you take Nebraska seriously? Do you take Kansas seriously? Then of course you’ve got things like South Carolina, where there’s a very good candidate, but man, does that seem like an unlikely one? If you’re going to get a surprise somewhere—and you often do get surprises out of nowhere—it’s in an environment like this one.
Anzalone: Well, listen, clearly we don’t know, but where we get a surprise is where there’s a quality candidate and they’re different. Like this Kansas Democratic Senate—like, you’ve seen the debate clips, right? And, you know, I mean, he’s just really good. And you take a look at Osborn, who—Ricketts has one line, which is calling Dan Osborn a Democrat, right? And that may work at the end of the day. But the reality is, both of those races are close. And so it is causing Republicans agita. It means that they have to move resources.
And you remember this, when Tim Ryan was leading JD Vance in that U.S. Senate race and he was doing it all on his own. And then the Republicans had to come in and put in, what, forty or sixty million dollars for JD Vance to win this, where Ryan had no help from the Democrats.
Sargent: OK, well, so let me ask you this, then, John. What keeps you up at night? How does this not come together? What can still go wrong here? These races are all extremely close. You’re going to get outspent, I think, by a few hundred million dollars at the end of the day.
The second is money. I mean, money’s going to matter in some races. There’s just no doubt about it.
Well, the reality is that Musk operation that was being run by Phil Cox was doing real work and actually had an impact. So there’s stuff going on out there in these battleground states that we don’t see, to try to move up the motivation level and get Republicans out—that we see in our polling right now that there’s low motivation.
Sargent: So John, have Democrats learned from what happened in 2024? You pointed out—and I was one of them too, who was totally shocked by Elon Musk’s thing working. I didn’t expect any of that to happen. Are Democrats paying the right amount of attention to some of this more under-the-radar stuff that Musk is doing? Are Democrats focused on it?
But he did it in eight years as governor. And so, you know, I don’t really know each place, who has a strong field operation, who doesn’t. But the fact is that we’ve got to do some real work on the ground.
Anzalone: Well, I think we’re going to win Maine, right? And I think we’re going to win North Carolina. I’m the pollster, so full disclosure there. And then listen, we would be happy with fifty-fifty, even though that’s not what we want. But I actually believe that you then go to Alaska. I think she’s a unique candidate that truly fits that state.
Anzalone: And that’s three. And I think people will think I’m crazy, but I’m really bought in on Texas. And while Ohio is—Ohio is thirteen points, too, right? Ten, eleven, twelve, something like that. I think that race is still, you know—I think there’s going to be so much money in that race that we should be looking at it in two weeks, three weeks, et cetera. I think that’s more of a week-by-week. I just have this feeling that Paxton is so soiled that there may be no coming back.
Anzalone: People would think I was crazy saying that, because, sure [Sherrod Brown has] been up. But what I like about Texas is that [Talarico] doesn’t have to get fifty-plus-one. I think the libertarian’s going to do real work for him. There’s going to be so much money in Ohio—that’s the one place where it actually may be impacted.
Sargent: Can Michigan and Maine hold?
Sargent: John Anzalone, the way you describe it, it sure seems like there’s a path. Thanks so much for coming on with us today.
Anzalone: Thanks for the time. Good talking with you, Greg.
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