Neither the United States nor China is ready to slow down. Neither trusts the other. And rapidly advancing AI systems will not wait for diplomacy to catch up. But these realities do not mean Trump and Xi can ignore the mounting calls for the U.S. and China to talk about AI. Any such dialogue must avoid the two most common pitfalls for U.S.-China diplomacy: setting the ambitions so low that the talks become meaningless or so high that agreement becomes impossible.
A better near-term goal would be for the U.S. and China to pursue AI safety in parallel and demonstrate their progress in practice. That effort should be anchored in technical exchanges that make each country’s AI systems safer on their own terms. The two countries should also establish a protocol to communicate about emerging AI incidents before they spiral into international crises. These steps would represent meaningful progress, far more valuable than lofty statements or unverifiable commitments.
These proposed technical exchanges would not depend on “trust” or even strict “reciprocity” between the two superpowers, nor would they require identical conceptions of AI risk. They would be driven by self-interest. As the most advanced AI models grow even more powerful, both countries have an interest in ensuring that these systems remain controllable, regardless of where they are built or deployed. That will require both countries to improve their model testing, monitoring and safeguards, and share promising findings that could enhance safety without surrendering a competitive edge or undermining national security.
For this approach to work, it must be accompanied by a government-to-government crisis-communication protocol. What if an American AI model escapes its company’s control and hacks the networks of a Chinese company or the Chinese government? What if a Chinese AI-powered drone attacks a U.S. Navy vessel, and neither side can immediately determine whether the incident was accidental or deliberate? What if Washington detects a Chinese model conducting a dangerous cyber operation but cannot tell whether Beijing authorized it or whether a company has lost control of it?
One essential feature of the channel should be that information about an incident, at least initially, be transmitted in writing rather than solely by phone. Real-time calls are often poor vehicles for conveying technical information with a Chinese system that runs on committees and documents, increasing the risk of miscommunication and misunderstanding.
How to talk to Beijing
The talks should begin without preconditions or concessions in the broader technology competition. If Beijing seeks to make any progress on AI safety conditional on relief from U.S. export controls on advanced chips and chipmaking equipment, Washington should keep the two issues separate. The goal of AI safety diplomacy is not to turn the United States and China from intense competitors into cooperative partners. It is to keep their competition from producing outcomes neither side wants.
Starting modestly does not mean succumbing to fatalism. The politics of AI have shifted dramatically in just a few weeks, and advancing capabilities will continue to alter the calculations in both capitals. The upcoming U.S.-China talks will not be the last word. A limited start could build momentum over time, creating channels, expertise, and habits of interaction that will become more valuable if the trajectory of AI development increases Washington’s and Beijing’s levels of concern about severe risks.
Someday, as unlikely as it may seem now, the two countries may realize that they do not have to agree on who should win the AI race to agree that neither side can afford to lose control of it.
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