Trump’s sagging approval ratings, his handling of the GOP primary, and his early hesitance to use his enormous war chest to defend his preferred candidate, the scandal-scarred attorney general Ken Paxton, have boosted Democrats’ chances to win a statewide election in Texas for the first time in more than 30 years. Paxton lags slightly behind his Democratic opponent, state representative James Talarico, in several recent polls. More alarming to party strategists, Talarico has outraised Paxton by enormous margins, giving the Democrat the resources to compete in a huge and expensive state that the GOP did not plan to defend so fiercely.
Trump has the resources to help rescue Paxton: his affiliated super PAC, MAGA Inc., was sitting on more than $400 million this summer as the Republican begged for help. Initially, the President didn’t want to invest heavily in the race. According to three sources familiar with Trump’s thinking, including a senior White House official, Trump harbors doubts about the GOP’s midterm outlook. In private conversations, he has mused about how the money would simply be wasted, citing the history of a President’s party suffering defeats in midterm elections. A senior Trump adviser tells TIME that the President’s political operation has plans to spend tens of millions in the coming election cycle but won’t telegraph their strategy to the press and the opposition. “People are clutching their pearls because we’re not giving away our grand strategy,” the adviser says.
Only after weeks of pressure from allies did Trump’s super PAC finally intervene, committing $10 million on Sept 5. to bankroll ad campaigns in Texas to promote Paxton and attack Talarico. When Republicans gathered in Dallas for an extravagant two-night midterm convention this month, Trump’s endorsement of Paxton and praise for his record came wrapped in jabs at his appearance, his sense of fashion, and his shortcomings as a television performer.
The Texas Senate race occupied an unusual amount of attention inside Trump’s political operation as far back as late 2024. The four-term incumbent, John Cornyn, was a Senate stalwart and close ally of the chamber’s top Republican, John Thune. But he had grown less popular with the party’s base, and Trump wanted him gone. Despite Cornyn’s record of voting with Trump 99% of the time, the President had not forgotten Cornyn’s pointed criticism of Trump’s culpability over the January 6 riots, or his hesitance to endorse Trump during the presidential primary.
Indicted on felony securities-fraud charges months after taking office in 2015, Paxton spent nearly nine years fighting the case before prosecutors dropped it in a deal requiring hundreds of thousands of dollars in restitution, as well as community service and legal-ethics courses. In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton over separate allegations that he'd abused his office to benefit a wealthy donor—charges he denied and was later acquitted of by the state Senate. In 2025, his wife filed for divorce, accusing him of adultery. Paxton had already admitted to an affair in 2018, after having recommended the woman for a job at one of his top donor's real estate companies.
Trump was reluctant. Few voters statewide knew Hunt, and Trump needed Cornyn in the Senate to help enact his domestic agenda and confirm his nominees. While Trump’s advisers saw that Paxton’s political and personal liabilities threatened to make the general election considerably more difficult, the President viewed him as a loyal foot soldier. A source close to Trump encouraged him to offer Cornyn a graceful exit, perhaps a cushy job in the administration or ambassadorship. But Cornyn made clear he intended to seek another term.
It made little impression on Trump. Again Hunt, who launched his campaign in October 2025, pressed his case. A JL Partners poll conducted in January showed Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt in a statistical tie, with Hunt leading either man in hypothetical head-to-head contests. Another poll from the GOP polling firm Cygnal showed Paxton narrowly ahead of Hunt with Cornyn behind both of them. Hunt’s aides took the numbers to Trump’s and Thune’s teams, arguing that if Cornyn could be persuaded to step aside, Hunt could beat Paxton and spare Republicans the general-election risk they feared. They were dismissed. But Hunt was becoming enough of a threat that Cornyn’s allies began treating him like one, spending nearly $13 million attacking Hunt. A Paxton-aligned PAC spent another $1.4 million.
Cornyn’s allies continued the persuasion campaign after the primary, which advanced the senator and Paxton to a runoff. According to a White House aide, Thune spent hours on the phone with Trump after the primary, trying in vain to persuade him to endorse Cornyn in the runoff. For more than two months, Trump resisted choosing between them. By May, however, Paxton had pulled decisively ahead. Trump’s own pollsters concluded that even his endorsement was unlikely to save Cornyn. Trump finally endorsed Paxton a week before the runoff, and took credit for the victory.
That left Paxton’s camp looking to Elon Musk as a possible savior in a race Republican officials believed could cost north of $120 million. Musk had pledged to help Republicans in the midterms, but in Texas his money presented political complications. He is a prominent champion of AI data centers, a political flash point in Texas—the state’s governor, Greg Abbott, recently declared a moratorium on data-center development amid vehement backlash—and of H-1B visas, which are unpopular with parts of the Republican base. “Elon’s money is tainted,” says a Texas Republican operative working on the Paxton campaign. Musk’s super PAC has funneled roughly $1.6 million into the race to help Paxton. A spokesperson for America PAC declined to comment for this story.
The Senate Leadership Fund shelled out $54 million to help save Paxton. “The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November,” says the PAC’s executive director Alex Latcham. “Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority.”
But even his endorsement came packaged as a roast. “He may not dress right. He may not talk perfectly. He may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen,” Trump said. “But you know what he is? He’s the greatest attorney general in America and he deserves to be your next senator.” Trump then looked around for the candidate he had just finished insulting. “I’m sorry, Ken,” he riffed. “Where the hell is he?”
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