Blue Jays righty Jameson Taillon landed on the injured list last week due to elbow inflammation. At the time, Jays manager John Schneider couldn’t definitively rule out a return before season’s end, noting that Taillon was still gathering opinions on that ailing elbow. Taillon himself has now decisively stated that he won’t return in 2026, however (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). He’s slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister for another opinion on his elbow next week.
There are some broader concerns for Taillon, who underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2014 and required a second UCL reconstruction in 2019 (thereby wiping out his entire 2020 campaign). Taillon candidly acknowledged that right after he felt the elbow discomfort that ended his final start after two innings, he had some thoughts that perhaps he’d thrown the final pitch of his big league career. He’s feeling better a week and a half after the fact and now says he’s “pretty committed to creating a plan of attack and giving it another good go.”
It’s not the sort of uncertain status any veteran pitcher wants heading into an offseason where he’s slated to be a free agent. That’s doubly true for Taillon, given that the 2026 season has been his worst since signing his current four-year, $68MM contract with the Cubs ahead of the 2023 season. Chicago designated Taillon for assignment in late July. The Jays acquired him on Aug. 2 in exchange for cash or a player to be named later.
At the time of the swap, Taillon was lugging an unsightly 5.92 ERA through 15 starts. He’d totaled only 76 innings and posted a 20.9% strikeout rate (an exact match for his career mark) against a career-high (but still better-than-average) 8.3% walk rate. Home runs had been Taillon’s primary undoing. The 34-year-old righty (35 in November) served up a staggering 25 long balls in his 76 frames — an average of 2.96 round-trippers per nine innings pitched.
That sky-high mark trailed only 2017 Josh Tomlin and 2019 David Hess for the highest single-season HR/9 mark of any pitcher (min. 70 innings) of any pitcher this century. There was likely some level of flukiness to the sheer magnitude of homers allowed. Taillon entered the season having seen 12.2% of his fly-balls allowed turn into home runs. Prior to his DFA, he watched 21.4% of his fly-balls clear the fence. Couple that with a career-low ground-ball rate (33.8%) and a career-high fly-ball rate (51.3%), and the results were disastrous.
The home run spike also can’t be entirely attributed to that wonky HR/FB mark; Taillon’s 91.8 mph average four-seamer with the Cubs was the lowest of his career, and opponents accordingly teed off on the pitch (nine homers allowed, 93.9 mph average exit velocity, 21.3% barrel rate).
With Toronto, Taillon enjoyed better results over a tiny sample of 10 innings. He yielded four runs in that time (3.60 ERA), though he still served up two dingers. The nine hits and five walks he permitted weren’t a great sign, and he fanned only eight of 44 opponents (18.1%). He surely hoped being dealt to a rotation-strapped Blue Jays club could provide him a runway to rebound down the stretch, but injuries haven’t allowed that to happen. Taillon, who missed time with the Cubs in June and July due to a hamstring strain, has been on the injured list for forearm tendinitis and now elbow inflammation with the Jays.
That trio of injuries means Taillon will head into free agency on the heels of a career-high 5.65 ERA. His strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates were all within reach of league-average — slightly better than average, in the case of his walk rate — but he’ll need to rein in the home runs next season if he’s to bounce back. A pitching-needy club in a spacious home park could view Taillon as some affordable depth, but that’ll hinge on the outcome of this upcoming opinion from Dr. Meister.
Prior to this season, Taillon had been fairly durable in his return from that second career UCL reconstruction. From 2021-25, the righty averaged 28 starts and 155 innings per season. Until his August IL placement with Toronto, he hadn’t had an arm-related trip to the injured list since returning from surgery. Overall, the former No. 2 draft pick (2010) and top prospect has a 3.99 ERA in 1323 major league innings.
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