Large areas of southern England could still be in drought by next spring, official forecasts have suggested.
New research by the Environment Agency shows the country will need above average rainfall throughout autumn and winter for all areas to be out of drought by April 2027.
There is a one in four chance that six regions of England will still have drought status by this date, if the country gets 80 per cent of typical rainfall.
Almost three quarters of England remains in drought after five heatwaves and just 10 per cent of average rainfall in July.
The National Drought Group of ministers, Environment Agency and Met Office officials, farmers and water company bosses, which is meeting weekly, discussed plans on Tuesday to secure supplies over the next few months.
No regions of England that were in drought this summer have recovered, despite persistently dry weather coming to an end.
England would need to experience 120 per cent of typical rainfall over the next seven months for all areas to be considered out of drought.
Water Minister Emma Hardy said recent rainfall had not been enough to replenish supplies used over the past six months.
She urged water companies to fix leaks quickly, follow drought plans and reducing demand to avoid further restrictions. She added that “long term resillience was a priority for the Government”, and that work was continuing on nine major reservoirs to secure future supplies.
Environment Agency chief executive Philip Duffy said: “The drought situation remains very serious, and we cannot underestimate the challenge ahead over the coming months.
“Several reservoirs are concerningly low,” he added.
“Water supplies are limited and we continue to balance the needs of agriculture, public water supply, and our environment.”
He urged everyone to “use a little less water to speed up drought recovery”.
Defra is giving £65m to drought-hit farmers, including £15m for on-farm reservoirs to help store rainwater.
A further £100m will boost the country’s capacity to respond to extreme weather and wildfires.
England received 130 per cent of average rainfall between September 2025 and March 2026 to recover from last year’s drought, underlining how much is needed to replenish reservoirs and rivers. Over the summer there was just 64 per cent of expected summer rainfall.
The Met Office has forecasted a return to drier conditions in the second half of September, particularly in the south where the rain is needed most.
But a particularly strong El Niño is set to bring wet and stormy weather across the UK later this autumn.
Using data submitted by each water company, the Environment Agency has modelled four different scenarios.
Most likely scenario
Between September and March, based on the Met Office’s three-month outlook and seasonal indications, England would receive above average rainfall.
It would mean only two regions – Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia – would still be in drought by the start of spring 2027.
The north would move to recovery first, followed by the Midlands and then finally parts of southern England.
Under this scenario, Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire would move to recovery in October and be declared back to normal in November.
By December, most areas would see a fragile recovery, although four areas – Devon & Cornwall, East Anglia, Thames Valley and the West Midlands – would remain in drought.
By February, most places would be back to normal, with the East and West Midlands and Thames Valley moving into recovery.
Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia would remain in drought as spring begins, starting the drier months with water deficits.
Average rainfall scenario
Under this scenario, England would receive 100 per cent of its typical rainfall between September and March.
There would be a patchy recovery beginning next month, with Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire declared normal in November.
Most areas would stay in drought for the rest of this year but January could see everywhere except East Anglia in either recovery or back to normal.
By the start of April, East Anglia may stay in drought and Devon & Cornwall will be in fragile recovery.
Dry autumn and winter scenario
England would receive around 80 per cent of average rainfall between September and March.
Forecasters predict this has a one in four likelihood.
Under this scenario, a fragile recovery would begin in November, with all four northern areas – Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire, the North East and Yorkshire – moving from prolonged dry weather to recovery.
By January, these areas would be back to normal status.
Drought conditions would remain across the Midlands and the south for the rest of 2026.
The East Midlands could move to recovery in January and be joined by London, Hertfordshire, and Kent the following month.
East Anglia, Lincolnshire & Northamptonshire, Thames Valley, Devon & Cornwall, Wessex (covering Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire, and south Gloucestershire) Solent & the South Downs and the West Midlands would still be in drought by the start of April 2027.
Severe drought scenario
Between September and March, England would receive just 60 per cent of its average rainfall and high temperatures would persist.
Forecasters say there is a 1 per cent chance of this happening.
Under this scenario, there would be “immediate risks” this autumn related to public supply reservoirs in Devon & Cornwall, Solent & South Downs as well as the River Severn in the West Midlands.
However there would be a knock-on effect of low supplies across the country, the research says.
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