Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
We’re talking about it all with Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki, who’s worked on a lot of midterms and knows this stuff in and out. Caitlin, always good to talk to you. Thanks for coming on.
Sargent: So the Supreme Court just blocked Trump’s effort to use the Postal Service to rig the midterms. He exploded in a frenzy on Truth Social, calling the ruling horrible. He said:
Trump added that Democrats are “crazed and depraved.”
Legacki: Yeah, I mean, this is an issue that I’ve been working on for a couple of years, but it’s part of a larger agenda where Trump has been trying to either use the FBI or the Department of Justice or his ability to control and change regulations at the U.S. Postal Service to really turn the federal government against his perceived political opponents. And so it isn’t surprising that it got to this place.
And, oddly enough though, a lot of his voters vote by mail, whether it’s rural voters, older voters. Plenty of Republicans have tried to push back on his war on vote by mail, but he clearly views this as a huge loss for him and his interests.
Legacki: That’s exactly right. And I think what’s funny is that the more he talks about all of this other stuff, the more it’s going to drive the American voter away from him. Because what we’re seeing, whether it’s in this New York Times poll or elsewhere, is there is a massive affordability crisis in America right now. And, you know, I think the American people are smart enough to know that there’s not always a lot you can do on that.
Sargent: Yep. Trump is really, really making this election as bad as possible for Republicans. The Times poll is probably the best survey out there. It’s worth taking extremely seriously. And it just found that Democrats lead by over eight points in the generic House ballot matchup, 51 percent to 43 percent.
Caitlin, up until today, it was looking as if the Dem lead in the generic ballot was expanding, but I don’t think we could really say that with any certainty. I think this Times poll brings us a little closer to confirmation that that lead is expanding. What do you think?
He’s not taking those concerns seriously. And I think that that’s just one more brick in the wall, where people are going to look at him when they’re in the voting booth and say, like, this guy just doesn’t care about the things that I care about.
Sargent: Good policy.
And so I think for Democrats who are looking at a message that resonates with those voters, it’s really not that hard. It’s, we want to bring your costs down, and we want you to feel secure in your neighborhood. And that’s really it.
Now, I want to point out that this Times polling came before the comments about AI that Trump made. And I do think those comments from Trump are going to make things worse.
It’s when you look at all of the gains he made with Hispanics in 2024—those are being wiped out because the economy is bad. And he ran on an agenda of reducing costs, of improving the economy. It’s gotten better for some very, very wealthy people, but for your average American, it hasn’t gotten better. In fact, it’s probably gotten a little bit worse.
On top of that, 52 percent overall strongly disapprove of Trump, including 60 percent of independents who strongly disapprove. That’s astounding. It’s such a dramatic repudiation of the president. I’m going to say this again: this midterm is about Trump, Trump, and Trump. What do you think?
And so, I’m going to be the skunk at the garden party a little bit, which is to say these numbers are fantastic for Democrats, but I think they’re still pretty fresh. They’re not fully baked, and they’re not the same thing as an endorsement of all of our policies.
Sargent: I agree. What it signals is that there’s a big opening for Democrats to grab hold of the debate. And as I’ve argued a million times on here, and at The New Republic, there is an opening to do that and Democrats should do that. They’re still not there yet. I get why—it’s a midterm, like, you want it to be about the president.
Legacki: Yeah, I mean, it’s funny, because we always joke that it’s a lot easier to be in the minority, because you don’t actually have any real responsibility. Your job is to just respond to what the party in power is doing.
Sargent: Well, let’s talk about the Trump-GOP collapse with Latinos, which you referenced earlier, in the Times poll. Dems are leading among Hispanics in the generic matchup by 68 percent to 25 percent. And 70 percent of Hispanics disapprove of Trump—63 percent strongly. Sixty-three percent of Hispanics disapprove of Donald Trump strongly.
Legacki: That’s exactly right. And I think it’s important that you point out Texas has broken our hearts before. I think when you look at Beto O’Rourke, he came within two of Ted Cruz. I think the key difference we’re seeing here, with people like Talarico and Gina Hinojosa and Mary Peltola and Rob Sand and Josh Turek—all these guys and women that are running in pretty solidly red states—they’re clearly playing to win. They are taking positions that are the right positions for their states, whether it’s Mary Peltola on oil and gas, or Talarico and Turek, who both have made news about their positions on trans kids in sports.
Sargent: Well, it certainly looks like James Talarico is really running to win that race. CNN’s Harry Enten added another data point from CNN’s polling. He looked at working-class Latinos and found that Trump is 47 points underwater among them on immigration. Enten called these “terrible, terrible numbers.”
Legacki: Yeah, there’s a couple things. One is that, first of all, when you’re talking about Latino voters, that means that they are either people who were born here or people who have gone through the legal immigration process to become citizens so they can vote here.
The signal they were sending us, though, is that they want an economy that works for them and their families. They want everyone to play by the same set of rules. And what Trump has done is he’s made the economy terrible for working people. Like, stuff is just too expensive for working families.
Sargent: And I think we should talk about this in the context of Texas again, because those South Texas counties, the ones that are heavy on Latinos—those are places where Trump really shifted the vote, because a lot of them are border counties. And for them, what they thought they were voting for was border security, right? Like, that’s what Texas Latinos thought Trump was promising them, I think. Does that make sense?
Legacki: Totally. And I think you’re exactly right. They were voting for border security. And I think when you even talk to border Democrats in places like Arizona and Texas, there were real problems in those communities with too many people coming over the border, overwhelming their communities, overwhelming their social services. They were just looking for a little bit more, I think, control in terms of the volume of people coming over.
The difference is that now, whether it’s ICE, Border Patrol, whoever else, they’ve been completely outrageous in terms of how they hassle people, how they stop people on the street. There’s no effective targeting about who they’re trying to find. And, you know, we were told that they were going to crack down on the worst of the worst. And what they’re doing instead is just breaking up families and terrorizing kids.
Caitlin, you look at this polling from the Times and the stuff that Harry Enten’s citing, every one of those fears is turning out to be right. Those things are getting locked in. Trump is cratering on the economy and with independents, and the Democratic lead is growing in the likely voter polling, which is what this Times poll is, which shows the enthusiasm is with Dems. What do you make of all that?
So for example, in a place like Iowa, where you’ve got Josh Turek running against Ashley Hinson, normally we would see that poll get a lot tighter as we got closer.
And here we’re seeing not only are they not coming home, but they’re actively leaving Republicans. And with two months to go, and Donald Trump not seeming to recognize, I think, the gravity of this situation, there’s no indication that that situation’s going to get better.
We’re going to see an enormous amount of negative advertising hitting these Democratic candidates in these big Senate races, and some of the most contested House races as well. So don’t get alarmed if these polls tighten. It’s what usually happens in this situation. And hey, as Caitlin says, if it doesn’t happen, all the better, right? But that is a real worry, isn’t it, Caitlin?
It’s very technical, but there used to be a benefit for candidates like, for example, Roy Cooper, who is just totally outraising his opponent Michael Whatley. That playing field is getting a little bit leveled.
Sargent: Caitlin Legacki, that was all really illuminating stuff. Folks, she really closed on an important note there. We shouldn’t freak out if some of these polls tighten. It’s what’s supposed to happen. Caitlin, thanks so much for coming on. It was great to talk to you, as always.
Legacki: Thanks for having me.
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