Ahead of the start of the league phase of the 2026-27 Europa League, the Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the season. But who won the competition most often?
The Europa League restarts this week for another season, with 36 teams primed for an eight-matchday league phase that runs from Wednesday night until mid-January.
By the end of those games, the teams will be sorted into one enormous table, with the top eight progressing to the last 16, and the teams who finish in positions nine through 24 contesting a play-off round to also make it into the knockout stage.
From there, it’s a straight knockout format to whittle everyone down to a final two who will contest the final in Frankfurt’s Waldstadion on 26 May 2027.
Last year, Aston Villa lifted the trophy, but their success means they automatically qualified for the Champions League. So, once again, we’ll have a different Europa League winner this season.
This season’s English contingent, made up of Bournemouth, Sunderland and Crystal Palace, might fancy their chances after Villa’s success, after Tottenham won the Europa League the year before, meaning we’ve had Premier League winners of this particular competition two years running.
Ahead of last season’s competition, the Opta supercomputer predicted Villa would be victorious before a ball was kicked. And this time around, the supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the Europa League campaign, and another Premier League side has been installed as favourites to win the whole thing…
Europa League 2026-27 Predictions
Bournemouth are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the Europa League, lifting the trophy in 14.3% of simulations. Benfica aren’t far behind as second favourites, winning the trophy 14.0% of the time. Bayer Leverkusen are third favourites, given a 10.2% chance of glory. Premier League sides Sunderland and Crystal Palace are both among the top seven teams.Europa League Favourites in 2026-27
In their first-ever season in Europe, Bournemouth are the favourites to go all the way and win the Europa League in 2026-27.
There were a few question marks surrounding the Cherries after another summer of upheaval, this time with manager Andoni Iraola departing for Liverpool and key centre-back Marcos Senesi leaving on a free to Spurs, but they have started well under Marco Rose, and the supercomputer is backing them to remain strong for the whole season.
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the season and Rose’s side managed the balance of domestic and European football well enough to win the Europa League more times (14.3%) than any other team. Bournemouth also finish top of the league phase in more simulations (15.1%) than any other side.
They do, however, have plenty of stiff competition, with one very close competitor for the favourite’s badge and five more teams not too far behind in their hopes of winning the competition, according to the supercomputer.
Benfica are only just behind Bournemouth, winning the Europa League in 14.0% of simulations. The Portuguese giants, then led by José Mourinho, finished third in the Primeira Liga last season, but are now managed by another boss familiar to Premier League clubs, with former Fulham head coach Marco Silva now in charge.
Benfica have won five and drawn one of their six league games this season, scoring more goals (21) than any other team. Across Europe’s top 10 leagues, only Slavia Prague (23) and PSV (22) have scored more.
Benfica are currently just one place below Bournemouth in the Opta Power Rankings, hence them having only a marginally lower chance of winning the competition.
Third favourites to win the Europa League are Bayer Leverkusen, who are back in this competition after a desperately disappointing 2025-26, in which they finished sixth in the Bundesliga, just two years after winning the title while going unbeaten for the whole season under Xabi Alonso.
Now under the relatively unproven former Toulouse manager, Carles Martínez Novell, Leverkusen are rather more of an unknown quantity than they have been in previous years; their opening-day defeat to Bundesliga new boys Elversberg a case in point.
The supercomputer reckons they are among the teams with the best chance of winning the Europa League, though, doing so in 10.2% of simulations.
Union Saint-Gilloise are something of a surprise this high up in the supercomputer’s estimations, but they won 8.6% of simulations.
Last season’s Belgian Pro League runners-up went into the Champions League qualifiers this summer but were just edged out by Bodø/Glimt, and so have ended up in the Europa League. They have started the domestic season impressively, and will provide stern opposition for anyone they play, even if their name doesn’t carry as much weight as some of the other teams in the competition.
Sunderland, back in Europe for just the second time in their history after taking part in the 1973–74 Cup Winners’ Cup, could be in contention for European glory if the supercomputer’s projections are correct.
In their only other season in Europe, they won a two-legged first-round game but were then knocked out by Sporting CP in the second round. They will play at least twice as many matches this time around (eight), but will be hoping to go deep in the competition. They are given a 82.3% chance of making the last 16, and an 8.3% chance of going all the way and winning the whole thing.
That is largely based on their supremely impressive campaign last season, but then, they didn’t have to manage domestic and European schedules simultaneously. That’s something they’ve never had to do, really, so it will be interesting to see how they fare.
Other Europa League Contenders
Juventus won 7.8% of the supercomputer’s simulations, but while they are an enormous club with tonnes of pedigree on this stage, having won the UEFA Cup three times, the Cup Winners’ Cup once and the European Cup/Champions League twice, their most recent European triumph was back in 1995-96.
The Old Lady are something of a fallen giant, and this competition provides a decent chance for them to get back to winning ways.
Crystal Palace are next up, with a 7.3% chance of winning the Europa League. They suddenly have pedigree in continental competition, after winning the Conference League in their first season in Europe last season.
Milan won 5.3% of the supercomputer’s simulations of the season and cannot be ruled out, while Rennes (3.9%), Lyon (3.2%), and Hoffenheim (2.3%), round up the teams with more than a 2% chance.
The Rank Outsiders
In 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 Europa League season, two of the 36 entrants failed to win the competition even once: Torreense (of Portugal) and OFI Crete (of Greece). In the supercomputer’s eyes, they have next to no chance of winning the Europa League.
Ararat-Armenia (of, you guessed it, Armenia) won in just one simulation, meaning they have a 0.01% chance of glory. Celje (Slovenia) won two simulations, Lillestrøm (Norway) and Hapoel Be’er Sheva (Israel) won six each (0.06%) and NEC (Netherlands) won seven. Every other team won at least 0.2% of the simulations.
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Europa League Predictions 2026-27: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Opta Analyst.
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