“Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump told reporters Sunday in Ireland. “Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage.”
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“This isn’t done by the Middle East,” Trump said. “This is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine. So we spoke to Mr. Zelenskyy about it.”
Washington’s intervention in the peace efforts had previously stalled last spring following the outbreak of war with Iran.
Zelenskyy has not publicly responded to Trump’s comments, but he has previously said that these refineries fund and fuel Russia’s war with Ukraine. He said that his country’s attacks are meant to disrupt Moscow’s financing capacity.
Olena Lennon, a Practitioner in Residence of National Security at the University of New Haven, says ending the attacks would deprive Kyiv of an unusually effective source of leverage.
TIME has reached out to Zelenskyy’s office for comment.
When Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia’s energy facilities in late 2025, the northern nation faced a domestic gasoline shortage estimated at around 20%. It began instituting export restrictions. The disruption persisted, however, with Russian refinery runs reaching a 24-year low last month.
But Russia is only one contributor to a global fuel squeeze driven more substantially by disruptions in the Middle East. The effects of that broader supply shock have been felt worldwide.
Last week in Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva introduced 30-day tax cuts on gasoline and ethanol, along with a subsidy of one real per liter for diesel producers and importers, as the U.S.-Iran war drove up global oil prices. Although Brazil is a major crude exporter, it still depends on imports of refined fuels.
In light of this, Lennon finds Trump’s request “purely hypocritical.” “If Trump’s primary concern is the disruption of global energy markets, then the much larger issue is America’s continued war with Iran, which has contributed far more significantly to the current fuel shortage,” she says.
The Strait of Hormuz, the vital passageway through which 20% of the world’s oil flowed prior to the war, was effectively closed by Iran after the U.S. and Israel coordinated attacks on the nation on Feb. 28. Control of the Strait has been a sticking point in peace negotiations, and the U.S. and Iran most recently traded strikes in the Strait on Sept. 9.
Oil transit has grown even more fraught following advances last week from Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
On Sept. 11, Saudi Arabia closed a critical oil pipeline after it was struck by drones launched from Iraq. An investigation is underway to ascertain who is behind the attacks, but no group has claimed responsibility. Saudi Arabia—a U.S. ally—is facing mounting threats from the Houthis, which has pulled the Saudi government further into the Middle Eastern conflict. Trump said Saturday, without providing evidence, that Iran was “probably responsible.” Amid Iraq’s investigations into the drone attacks, it has closed down three border crossings with Iran.
The White House has not responded to TIME’s request for comment on how Trump’s remarks Sunday might sit in contrast with comments he made last week linking elevated oil and gasoline prices to the war with Iran.
He added that “it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm” for gas prices to come down, indicating that would happen as soon as Iran was ready to reach a resolution to end the war.
What would heeding Trump mean for Ukraine’s fight against Russia?
Halting the campaign could give Moscow greater opportunity to repair its refineries, preserve fuel and revenue for its war effort, and resume some exports. That could ease one source of pressure on global diesel supplies—but it would not make up for the much larger disruption caused by the war with Iran.
Even so, compliance might not alter the war’s trajectory as significantly as the campaign’s economic impact suggests.
“In short, Ukraine's campaign of deep drone strikes in Russia has backfired, producing far more Russian destruction in Ukraine than Ukraine has inflicted on Russia,” Beebe tells TIME.
But Lennon believes that Trump’s request is “in and of itself further evidence that Ukraine’s drone strikes have become increasingly effective in reducing Russia’s economic and combat power—and that Ukraine’s leverage has grown exponentially.”
Separate from the debate over the campaign’s effectiveness is whether Ukraine is capable of fulfilling Trump’s request as narrowly as he described it.
Sonin says Ukraine lacks the intelligence and targeting process necessary to distinguish among installations producing different fuels. “When they strike a refinery, they strike what is vulnerable there,” he tells TIME. “They use their precious resources to create as much damage as possible.”
Lennon, however, believes Ukraine could halt refinery strikes without abandoning its broader deep-strike campaign.
The more important issue, she believes, is what would happen if Ukraine chooses to eschew Trump’s request.
For that reason, the question becomes whether the U.S. would choose to add sanctions and otherwise pressure Putin to scale back—or continue pushing for Ukraine to abandon that source of leverage.
“Over time, that choice could significantly affect the strategic balance of the war and its outcome,” Lennon says.
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