CUBS PLAYOFF ODDS — After their win over the Cardinals on Friday, August 14, the Chicago Cubs (72-51) were a season-high 21 games over .500 and only 3.0 games out of first place in the NL Central. That’s when we were riding highest, thinking the Cubs had a shot to overtake the Brewers in the division (and then some) … plus, Ben Brown was close to returning, and we were still pre-Dansby Swanson injury and Daniel Palencia/Jacob Webb collapse.
On that day, the Cubs were also 7.0 games up in the NL Wild Card race, with a +6.0 game lead for the first Wild Card slot (and, thus, home-field advantage in Round 1).
Since then, however, the Cubs have gone 9-15, including three straight losses against the Brewers this week, bringing them back down to just 15-games over .500. They are also now 1.0 game behind the Phillies for the top Wild Card slot and just +3.0 games up from missing out on the postseason altogether. Yikes. That’s a bona fide collapse.
But that brings me to the more specific question of the post: How badly have the Cubs actually screwed up their chances of making the postseason? Well, let’s take a look! Fortunately, it’s not quite as bad as you’re probably imagining.
Cubs Playoff Odds
On August 14, the Cubs’ chances of making the postseason sat at 99.2%, in no small part because their division odds sat all the way up at 27.8%! Today, their odds of winning the NL Central have dropped to a full zero percent (rounding down), but no surprises there. Their odds of clinching a Wild Card slot, however, are still at a lofty 96.4% according to FanGraphs.
National League WC Standings:
Phillies: 82-65 (+3.5) Cubs: 81-66 (+2.5) Padres: 78-68 (–) Diamondbacks: (0.5 GB)The fifth team in this race, the Pirates, are five games back, giving them just a 1.5% chance to turn the tide before the end of the season. I bring that up for two reasons: (1) to point out that this is basically a four-team race for just three spots and (2) the Cubs hold the tie-breaker over all three of those teams.
Cubs head-to-head record vs WC Opponents:
Cubs vs Phillies: 6-1 Cubs vs Padres: 5-1 Cubs vs D-Backs: 4-2So the small field of realistic challengers, few remaining games (15), and tie-breaking edge over all three give the Cubs a real leg up (hence the odds). But there’s more to it than that.
For one, the Phillies still have nine extremely tough games remaining against the Braves, Brewers, and Rays. For another, the Diamondbacks and Padres have three head-to-head matchups remaining, which lowers the ceiling (at least slightly) of both teams going on absurd runs to end the year.
The Cubs still have six tough games left themselves (three against the Braves and three more against the Red Sox), but the schedule and current record of all four teams also favors them making the playoffs one way or another.
Indeed, Baseball Reference is even more bullish on the Cubs’ playoff odds, parking them at 97.4%.
If the Cubs go just a hair under .500 the rest of the way (7-8), they’d finish with a final record of 88-84. In that scenario, the Diamondbacks would need to go 11-4 against the Rangers, Marlins, Yankees, Rockies, and Padres to pass and boot them. And that’s assuming no further collapses from the Phillies or Padres.
Of course, making the playoffs isn’t the only thing left to fight for. The Cubs should desperately want to earn home-field advantage for that short three-game series. And for that, they still need to tie the Phillies by the end of the year (again, the Cubs hold the tiebreaker).
Even if you aren’t a big believer in home-field advantage on the field (Cubs are .569 at home, .533 on the road this season), there’s still a short-term financial advantage to hosting extra playoff games. Should that mean the difference in how much the Cubs spend this offseason? No. Will it? Yes, almost certainly. The difference is potentially as much as $10 million.
Now, there’s more to it than either of those points, too. If the final standings go Cubs-Phillies-Padres/D-Backs, the Cubs will host the Phillies with a chance to advance to the Brewers, while one of those latter two teams will face the Braves with a chance to advance to the Dodgers.
If the Cubs finish second, they’ll be on the same side of the bracket, but playing in Philadelphia. If they finish third, they will get the Braves and Dodgers.
It’s a little easier to understand visually:
Now, there’s an argument to be made that facing the Braves in round one (on the road as the lowest seed) and the Dodgers in round two is preferable even to home-field advantage against the Phillies with a chance to get the Brewers in Milwaukee. But I don’t think that’s really even worth considering. You’re playing with fire if that’s your actual goal. But it’s good to note that if things go sideways (but not all the way), there’s a small silver lining.
Bottom line here? The Cubs are still in the driver’s seat in terms of the 2026 MLB Playoffs, but not for home-field advantage. For that, they’ll have to at least tie the Phillies by the end of the season, which means they’ll have to beat their record by one full game the rest of the way.
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