SMU’s 27-24 victory over Florida State on Monday night capped off an interesting Week 1 for college football.
The Mustangs prevailed despite being -4 in turnover margin and making several other significant mistakes. They also had twice as many penalties (6) as FSU (3), fewer rushing yards (155) than the Noles (199), more missed field goals and lost the time-of-possession battle.
According to OptaStats, SMU is the first FBS or NFL team in the last 30 years to win under these specific circumstances:
SMU is the only FBS or NFL team in the last 30 years to have:-3 or worse turnover margintwice as many penalties as their opponentfewer rushing yards than their opponentlower TOP than their opponentmore missed FG than their opponent…and yet still win the game.
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 8, 2026Like our coverage? Make SDS a preferred source in your searches!
SMU still managed to win the game because the Mustangs moved the ball through the air at-will. Kevin Jennings passed for 430 yards and 3 touchdowns on the night, though he did also have a pair of interceptions.
SMU’s offense produced 8 passing plays of 15+ yards and 3 passing plays of 50+ yards. Overall, the Mustangs averaged 8.7 yards per play.
This is yet another frustrating loss for a Florida State team that has struggled mightily in ACC play since the start of 2024. The Noles are now 3-14 against conference opponents in their last 17 games.
For SMU, this was an important win. The Mustangs have ACC Championship and CFP aspirations this fall, though they will need to improve their turnover margin moving forward if they hope to achieve those lofty goals.
Prediction Markets College Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026 Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Notre Dame 83% Ohio St. 75% Georgia 73% Oregon 72% Texas 69% LSU 57% Ole Miss 40% Alabama 36% Texas A&M 34% Clemson 5% PredictSMU pulls off historically rare win over Florida State despite 4 turnovers Saturday Down South.
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