2026 Week 1 NFL Predictions ...Middle East

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing the predictions for the Week 1 games of the 2026 NFL season.

If the NFL season can’t get here soon enough for you, the league is listening. The kickoff to Week 1 is on a Wednesday for the first time since 2012 – and it begins with a strong opening schedule games, including Patriots vs. Seahawks, 49ers vs. Rams, Bills vs. Texans, Packers vs. Vikings, Commanders vs. Eagles and Broncos vs. Chiefs.

Wednesday, Sept. 9

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 61.0% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Seahawks 11-8 Last Meeting: Seahawks 29, Patriots 13 (Feb. 8, 2026)

Just over seven months after the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks dropped the curtain on the 2025 season with a matchup in the Super Bowl, the same two teams will be the first to take center stage for this season, squaring off in the 2026 NFL Kickoff Game on Wednesday night in the Pacific Northwest.

This marks the fourth straight year the previous season’s Super Bowl participants meet again, but just the third time a rematch comes in Week 1, with a Carolina Panthers-Denver Broncos matchup in 2016 and a Kansas City Chiefs-Minnesota Vikings contest in 1970 being the only prior instances. In the last two seasons, the reigning Super Bowl champion won the rematch.

If you recall, Super Bowl 60 was a one-sided affair with the Seahawks dominating the Patriots in a resounding 29-13 victory to capture the franchise’s second championship.

Seattle forced New England to punt on its first eight drives – excluding a QB kneel-down to end the first half – and led 19-0 in the fourth quarter before the Patriots scored their first points. The Seahawks didn’t let New England run a play inside the Seattle 35-yard line until less than three minutes remained in the game.

Seattle’s vaunted defense tormented Drake Maye, intercepting him twice – bringing one back for a touchdown by Uchenna Nwosu – and sacking him six times – including a strip sack by Derick Hall. Kenneth Walker III, meanwhile, ran wild on New England’s defense, and while Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smth-Njigba created one of the most dangerous QB-receiver duos in the regular season, with the outcome in little doubt early on, the two weren’t asked to do too much.

Walker may have won MVP honors, but any number of Seahawks defensive players could’ve taken home the award.

Seattle’s defensive front simply overwhelmed New England’s offensive line, generating a pressure rate of 63.0%, with edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence recording seven pressures and tackle Byron Murphy II tallying six. Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell was on the losing end of many blocking assignments, as he was charged with allowing eight pressures and a sack.

The defensive front is once again Seattle’s biggest strength. Entering 2026, our projection model ranks the Seahawks’ pass rush as the NFL’s third-best unit and its run defense as second-best. Among qualifying edge rushers last season, Lawrence had the highest run defense rating at 90.8, with defensive tackle Leonard Williams registering the second-highest run defense rating among his position group at 94.1.

In our overall team ratings (through Monday), we have the Seahawks at No. 2 and Patriots at No. 3 after both teams went 14-3 last season. The supercomputer, though, has New England’s probability of making the playoffs at 77.8%, while Seattle’s is at 52.9%, with the Patriots being the runaway favorite to win the AFC East, calculating their odds of finishing first at 60.0%.

A big unknown for Seattle entering this season is at running back. Walker is now with the Kansas City Chiefs and Zach Charbonnet is starting the season on the PUP list after tearing the ACL in his left knee in the Seahawks’ 41-6 beatdown of the San Francisco 49ers in a divisional game. The two accounted for 1,757 of Seattle’s 2,096 rushing yards in the 2025 regular season (Walker 1,027, Charbonnet 730). Rookie first-round draft pick Jadarian Price is slotted in as the Seahawks’ lead back, with former Green Bay Packer Emanuel Wilson and George Holani and his 73 yards rushing for Seattle last season providing depth. As a team, Seattle is only returning 13.4% of last year’s rushing yards to its Week 1 roster – the lowest of any team.

While there are uncertainties in the backfield, there shouldn’t be many questions about where Darnold will be looking to throw.

Njigba was named the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league with 1,793 receiving yards and 19 receptions of 25+ yards, while his target rate of 32.9% trailed only the Los Angeles Rams’ Puka Nacua among the 50 receivers who ran at least 400 routes. Led by Smith-Njigba, along with receivers Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed and tight end AJ Barner, we rank Seattle’s pass catchers as the sixth-best unit in the league.

The Patriots have revamped their wide receiver corps, though it remains to be seen if it is an upgrade for Maye. Stefon Diggs has been cut and Kayshon Boutte traded, while A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs have been acquired by the team. Brown is coming off his fourth straight season with 1,000 receiving yards and Doubs had a career-best 724 receiving yards last year, but neither got open at a particularly high rate. Among the qualifying receivers, Brown ranked 42nd in burn percentage (52.3) and Doubs ranked 27th (59.4).

Boutte, meanwhile, ranked third (68.2) and Diggs 14th (63.1), as New England receivers beat their man in coverage on throws they were targeted at an NFL-leading 65.4% clip last season. (The 2025 NFL average was 55.7%.)

Not only does Maye need to develop a rapport with his new receivers, the left side of the Patriots offensive line also must quickly work on its chemistry. Lining up next to Campbell is Alijah Vera-Tucker, who missed all of last season with a torn triceps after three of his first four pro seasons with the New York Jets were cut short early because of injuries.

The Patriots won all nine of their road contests last season – including a 10-7 victory over the Denver Broncos in the AFC title game – but the raucous atmosphere in Seattle is unlikely to be like anything they experienced in 2025 with the Seahawks unveiling their Super Bowl championship banner prior to kickoff.

Thursday, Sept. 10

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 61.6% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: 49ers 78-71-3 Last Meeting: Rams 42, 49ers 26 (Nov. 9, 2025)

The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams both went 12-5 and split their two meetings last season, with each team winning once on the road. Well, they will both be far from home for their first 2026 matchup.

These two rivals with championship aspirations, separated by approximately 350 miles along the California coast, will instead meet about 8,000 miles away from their homes, traveling in the neighborhood of 16 hours by plane and passing over the international dateline to play in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Melbourne, Australia, kicking off at 10:35 in the morning local time (Friday there).

The winner of this one could come down to which players can overcome the jet leg, though on paper – or on your screen – the Rams have the big advantage. With the offseason addition of the 2025 and two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and the return of three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, not to mention the reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the Rams enter the season No. 1 in our overall team ratings with the No. 2-ranked offense and top-ranked defense. The supercomputer considers Los Angeles extremely likely to make the playoffs, computing its odds at 87.1%, and its chances of winning the NFC West at 62.3%.

The supercomputer has pegged the 49ers at No. 8 in the team ratings, and their playoff odds at 44.5% but their chances of winning the division at just 16.5%. It appears they’ll have a pair of key contributors available for Week 1 after both had been working their way back from injuries with defensive end Nick Bosa recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week 3 of last season and seven-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle returning from a ruptured Achilles tendon sustained in a 23-19 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in a wild-card game.

Speaking of tight ends, a year ago, Sean McVay shook things up in the NFL by unveiling a unique offense using not one, not two, but three tight ends.

They used a 131 personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver) 358 times – 265 more than the next-closest team, the Chicago Bears – despite not trotting out a third tight end for the first time until Week 6 – one week after a 26-23 overtime loss to the 49ers.

In the rematch in Week 10, they utilized a 131 look on 44.8% of their offensive snaps (30 of 67), in a 42-26 victory. Stafford averaged 9.8 yards per pass on his 12 throws out of that look compared to 5.5 yards on his other 24 attempts.

While the offense is unique, all eyes will be on the Rams’ new-look defensive front. It’s uncertain if Donald will play, and if he does, how he’ll look after having not appeared in an NFL game since Jan. 14, 2024. When he’s on the field, though, for the first time since early in his career, he won’t be the focal point of opposing offensive blocking schemes and won’t see nearly as many double-teams with Garrett also on the line.

Garrett is coming off a season in which he set an NFL record with 23 sacks and led all qualifying edge rushers in knockdown percentage (10.8) while ranking second in pressure rate (30.8) and adjusted sack rate (7.9). In our own pass rush rating, he registered an NFL-best 99.0.

Minimum 200 pass rushes.

His first game as a Ram comes against a 49ers offensive line that we’ve ranked 18th in pass blocking.

Aside from the X’s and O’s and strategies that go into the gameplan on the field, both teams took far different approaches to prepare for the flight across the Pacific Ocean. The 49ers left on Wednesday and arrived in Melbourne on Friday, giving them nearly a week to adjust to the time in Australia, while the Rams plan to arrive about 24 hours before kickoff and hit the ground running, hoping their body clocks don’t have a chance to figure out what’s going on.

Just another element to pay attention to as the game unfolds.

Sunday, Sept. 10

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 52.0% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Texans 7-5 Last Meeting: Texans 23, Bills 19 (Nov. 20, 2025)

A pair of teams who lost in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs clash on the first Sunday of the regular season when the Buffalo Bills visit the Houston Texans. The supercomputer sees the Texans making a fourth straight playoff run, predicting their odds of reaching the postseason at 56.0%. We’ve calculated the Bills’ chances of making the postseason at 50.2% and have them slotted in at No. 18 in our team ratings a year after going 12-5.

The Texans, who also went 12-5 in 2025, boast a pass rush we’ve ranked as second best in the NFL, a run defense we’ve ranked seventh and a secondary grouping we’ve ranked ninth. When these teams met in Week 12 last season, Houston’s dominant defense flummoxed Josh Allen, sacking him a career-high eight times and picking him off twice in a 23-19 win.

In that matchup, when Allen and the Bills were on offense, the Texans lined up in a big nickel 65.2% of the time and nickel just 4.5% of the time. In all other games (including the playoffs), they were in nickel 70% of the time and big nickel on 4.6% of snaps. In Buffalo’s 43 plays against the Texans’ big nickel in last year’s meeting, the offense had a 27.9% successful play-rate, with Allen averaging a mere 3.3 yards per pass. In their other 23 offensive snaps, the Bills registered a 47.8 successful play-rate and Allen averaged 8.3 yards on his throws.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bengals 65.5% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Buccaneers 7-6 Last Meeting: Bengals 34, Buccaneers 23 (Dec. 18, 2022)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 2025 season ended a day after they beat Carolina in the season finale to improve to 8-9, when the Atlanta Falcons defeated the New Orleans Saints and allowed the 8-9 Panthers to capture the NFC South title due to tiebreakers and sneak into the postseason (it ended the Buccaneers’ four-year run as division champs). The Cincinnati Bengals’ 2025 season essentially ended in Week 2, when Joe Burrow injured a toe, requiring surgery and sidelining him for 2½ months.

While playing more than half the season without an MVP-caliber quarterback wasn’t ideal, the Bengals’ defense didn’t do the team any favors in a 6-11 finish. Cincinnati ranked 30th in scoring defense (28.9 points per game), 31st in total defense (380.9 yards per game) and 32nd in opponents’ yards per play (6.18).

Enter Dexter Lawrence, who was acquired by the Bengals in April after registering a pass rush rating of 91.2 last season with the New York Giants to rank third among qualifying defensive tackles. He’ll play his first regular-season game for the Bengals against a Tampa Bay offensive line that is No. 4 in pass blocking in our ratings. Cincinnati’s revamped defense clocks in at No. 17 entering the season after the unit was 28th in our final 2025 ratings.

With Lawrence in the fold and Burrow healthy, the supercomputer sees the Bengals as favorites to win the AFC North, giving them a 39.4% chance of winning the division and a 64.3% chance of reaching the playoffs – second-highest among AFC teams. Tampa Bay is also a slight favorite to win its division at 38.9%, as Baker Mayfield is motivated to bounce back from a disappointing finish to 2025. After averaging 239.9 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions and a 98.1 quarterback rating while leading the Bucs to a 6-2 record into their Week 9 bye, Mayfield averaged 197.1 passing yards with 13 TDs and nine picks and an 83.2 QB rating after the bye as Tampa Bay limped to a 2-7 finish.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 57.4% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Colts 9-6 Last Meeting: Colts 22, Ravens 19 OT (Sept. 24, 2023)

The Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts both finished last season with identical 8-9 records and missed the playoffs. Injuries at quarterback derailed both team’s postseason aspirations, with the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson missing a month with a hamstring injury and the Colts’ Daniel Jones suffering a season-ending torn right Achilles in Week 13. The Colts never found their way back into the win column following a Week 10 victory. Ouch! (To both a torn Achilles and ending the season on a seven-game losing streak.)

Jones is healthy, and that bodes well for Indianapolis after last season spiraled out of control. Through Week 13 of last season, only the Los Angeles Rams at 48.4% had a higher successful play-rate than the Colts’ 48.2. In Indianapolis’ final five games, its successful play-rate of 37.2 ranked sixth-worst. Heading into the new season, the supercomputer has Indy’s playoff odds at 42.7%.

An injured hamstring as well as ailments to his knee, ankle and toes may have hindered Jackson’s ability to run in 2025 – he averaged 5.2 rushes per game and 4.56 yards per scramble after averaging 8.2 rushes and 8.75 yards per scramble in 2024 – but the dual-threat signal-caller was still among the NFL’s most dangerous passers. Among qualifying QBs, the two-time MVP ranked third in yards per attempt (8.44) and open-target percentage (79.9) and fourth in passer rating (103.8), as well as posting the third-lowest pickable pass rate (2.42). Under new coach Jesse Minter, we’ve pegged the Ravens’ playoff probability at 55.8%.

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 54.6% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Bears 9-3 Last Meeting: Bears 36, Panthers 10 (Oct. 6, 2024)

The Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers both won their respective divisions in 2025 despite both teams starting out 0-2. The Panthers, in fact, had more defeats than victories in going 8-9, while the Caleb Williams and the Bears had a league-high seven comeback wins en route to an 11-6 record before their luck run out with a 20-17 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams in a divisional round game.

Will the Bears be able to replicate that kind of success this year? Chances are they won’t, and our supercomputer agrees, pegging them to finish last in the NFC North with a 12.8% chance of repeating as division champs. While Williams and the offense provided plenty of excitement with thrilling plays, Chicago’s defense also provided plenty of excitement with its boom-or-bust performance. The Bears led the league by forcing 33 turnovers but also allowed an NFL-worst 9.4% of all opponent offensive plays to go for 10 or more yards. They also surrendered at least 40 points in three games.

They’ll open against a Carolina team that scored fewer than 20 points in 10 games. Only the 3-14 Las Vegas Raiders, 5-12 Cleveland Browns and 6-11 New Orleans Saints had more such games with 11 apiece. The Panthers, though, have the luxury of playing in the subpar NFC South, and as a result, the supercomputer gives them a 30.2% chance of winning the division.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 60.8% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Steelers 16-2-1 Last Meeting: Steelers 18, Falcons 10 (Sept. 8, 2024)

For the 18th and final time, Aaron Rodgers will be suiting up for a season opener. The four-time NFL MVP reunites with a former coach in Mike McCarthy, and a passionate and championship-starved fanbase hopes the two can recapture the magic they enjoyed together in winning a Super Bowl for the Green Bay Packers more than 15 years ago. It would be a storybook ending to a Hall of Fame career for Rodgers, but our supercomputer doesn’t see it happening, giving them a 1.98% likelihood of raising the Lombardi Trophy. They’re slated to finish third in the AFC North with a 24.5% chance of winning the division.

If the Pittsburgh Steelers do win their first Super Bowl in 21 seasons, it will likely have more to do with their defense than a 42-year-old signal-caller. In 2025, Rodgers looked every bit of a QB with plenty of grey hairs on his chin (he does, after all, have more than 9,500 passes thrown in his career), averaging an NFL-low 6.13 air yards per throw while his 168 tosses behind the line of scrimmage were the most in the league.

The Steelers still appear to be better off at quarterback than the Atlanta Falcons, who have been unsettled there with anointed starter Tua Tagovailoa shaky in the preseason and Michael Penix Jr. working his way back from a left knee injury. At least they have Bijan Robinson, who averaged 2.40 yards after contact – the highest among the 41 running backs with 125+ carries last season. Still, Atlanta comes in at No. 28 in our overall team ratings, predicted to finish last in the AFC South with a 17.3% chance of making the playoffs.

The Falcons also haven’t beaten the Steelers in nearly two decades, losing the last five meetings since a 41-38 overtime win on Oct. 22, 2006. Atlanta’s .132 winning percentage (2-16-1) against Pittsburgh is its lowest against any NFL franchise.

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Titans 54.3% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Titans 24-21-1 Last Meeting: Jets 24, Titans 17 (Sept. 15, 2024)

The New York Jets and Tennessee Titans both went 3-14 to finish last in their respective divisions in 2025, and it probably won’t be too much better for either team in 2026. The supercomputer has the Jets’ projected win total at 6.08 with the Titans’ at 6.29, the third- and fourth-lowest in the AFC, respectively.

Geno Smith returns as the quarterback for the Jets after spending his first four NFL seasons with the franchise from 2013-16. While he managed to resurrect his career with the Seattle Seahawks from 2022-24, his 2025 season with the Las Vegas Raiders resembled much of his first stint in New York, as he led the NFL with 17 interceptions – which is somehow 17 more interceptions that the Jets defense registered while becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to go an entire season without intercepting a single pass. Absolutely mind-boggling. Problems for the Jets began upfront, as they posted the league’s second-worst pressure rate at 39.7%.

Cam Ward ranked third among qualifying QBs with an interception rate of 1.3% as a rookie last season, throwing only seven picks (that’s good) but he led the league with seven fumbles lost (that’s bad). He and Smith were both sacked 55 times – the most among all QBs.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 75.7% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Jaguars 12-8 Last Meeting: Browns 18, Jaguars 13 (Sept. 15, 2024)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off an impressive 2025 season in which they went 13-4 and captured the AFC South title before losing a thriller to the Buffalo Bills 27-24 in the wild-card round. The supercomputer envisions another big year for Trevor Lawrence and Co., giving them a 63.0% chance of making the playoffs – third-highest probability among AFC teams.

The same can’t be said for the Cleveland Browns.

With the embattled Deshaun Watson set to start for the first time since tearing his Achilles in Week 7 of 2024, the Browns, who went 5-12 in 2025 and brought up the rear in the AFC North, are again projected to finish last in the division with 5.17 victories and are ranked 31st in our overall team ratings. Cleveland’s defense kept things close last season – the unit ranked third in our ratings – but losing premier pass rusher Myles Garrett and his record 23 sacks is going to be impossible to replace.

Lawrence, meanwhile, will have a full season of working with Jakobi Meyers, whom the Jaguars acquired prior to Week 10 last season and quickly became Lawrence’s favorite target. From Week 10 on, the Jaguars ranked fifth in successful passing play-rate (45.9), tied for first with the Los Angeles Rams in burn percentage (66.2), and tied for fourth with the Bills for pass plays of 20+ yards (34). This came after ranking 30th in successful pass play-rate (39.2), 13th in burn percentage (57.5) and tied for 19th with three other teams for pass plays of at least 20 yards (23) through the season’s first nine games.

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 74.2% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: 13-13-1 Last Meeting: Lions 33, Saints 28 (Dec. 3, 2023)

Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs in 2025, none according to the supercomputer has a higher likelihood of making this year’s postseason than the Detroit Lions at 65.2% (second only to the Rams at 87.1% in the NFC). A 9-8 record and last-place finish in the NFC North last season gives the Lions the benefit of three potential gimmies on this year’s last-place schedule. The first of those favorable matchups comes in Week 1 with a home game against a New Orleans Saints team that ranks 24th in our overall team ratings and is projected to win 7.47 games.

The Lions, meanwhile, are No. 3 in the team ratings, led by Jahmyr Gibbs, who became the highest-paid running back in NFL history just over a month ago. Gibbs had to share the ball with David Montgomery during his first three seasons in the NFL, but with Montgomery traded to the Houston Texans in March, Gibbs will be counted on even more. Last season, he ranked ninth in yards per carry at 5.03, but that average shot up to an NFL-best 6.51 yards on his 49 rushes up the middle.

Any chance for the Saints to improve on last year’s 6-11 season will likely come down to if quarterback Tyler Shough can take a step forward in his development following an encouraging rookie season. After pedestrian showing in a 34-10 loss to the Rams in his first NFL start in Week 9, Shough led New Orleans to a 5-3 finish, ranking second in the NFL in completion percentage (69.7), tied for fourth in interception percentage (1.5), eighth in yards per attempt (7.68) and ninth in QB rating (97.1) in the season’s final nine weeks.

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Raiders 60.9% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Dolphins 20-18-1 Last Meeting: Dolphins 34-19 (Nov. 17, 2024)

The 2025 season was a forgettable one for both the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders, and things aren’t looking much better for either team in 2026, with the Raiders in at No. 26 in our overall team ratings and the Dolphins last.

A 3-14 season in 2025 landed Las Vegas the top pick of April’s draft, and it selected Fernando Mendoza with the hopes he can help turn the franchise around. He’ll have to wait his turn, though, as veteran Kirk Cousins will begin 2026 under center after spending the last two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons.

The Dolphins also have a new signal caller, putting their faith in Malik Willis. Willis was sharp in his one start for the Green Bay Packers last season, completing 18 of 21 passes for 288 yards and a touchdown for a 134.6 QB rating. In fact, in his three starts for Green Bay in the last two seasons, Willis compiled an eye-popping 132.4 passer rating. Miami’s offense will revolve around De’Von Achane, who put up some impressive numbers of his own last year, averaging a league-leading 5.67 yards per rush with an NFL-best 3.60 yards coming before contact. He gashed opposing defenses on his 32 carries on pin and pull runs to the outside, averaging an absurd 9.75 yards per rush.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chargers 80.7% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Chargers 11-5 Last Meeting: Cardinals 17, Chargers 15 (Oct. 21, 2024)

After going 11-6 with lopsided losses in the wild-card round in each of Jim Harbaugh’s first two seasons at the helm, the Los Angeles Chargers look to take a step forward in 2026 as we have them at No. 9 in the team ratings. We’ve pegged the Chargers as favorites to win their first AFC West title since 2009, giving them a 41.6% likelihood of finishing on top. And as for the Arizona Cardinals, we’re essentially giving them no chance to win the uber-competitive NFC West, as the supercomputer believes they have just a 3.3% chance of finishing first.

Offensive line woes plagued the Chargers last season, but they should be in better shape this year. Left tackle Joe Alt returns after suffering a season-ending right ankle injury last November and right tackle Rashawn Slater is back after missing the entire 2025 season with a ruptured left patellar tendon. Playing behind a banged-up line, Justin Herbert was hit an NFL-high 128 times and Los Angeles running backs averaged just 2.5 yards before contact in the 11 games Alt missed (the NFL’s eighth-worst mark) compared to 3.1 yards before contact in the six games he played (eighth-best).

Alt, Slater and the Chargers O-line should be able to ease back into things with a matchup against the Cardinals, who ranked 30th in pressure rate last season at 40.8%, while their 30 sacks were tied with the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers for the third fewest. As a unit, we’ve deemed Arizona’s pass rush as worst in the NFL.

Offensively for the Cardinals, veteran Jacoby Brissett is QB1 after taking over for an injured Kyler Murray last season and averaging 240.4 pass yards per game – sixth-highest in the NFL. Since taking over in Week 6, Brissett had four 300-yard passing games – one fewer than the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff for the most in the league in that span.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Vikings 54.6% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Packers 66-60-3 Last Meeting: Vikings 16, Packers 3 (Jan. 4, 2026)

The start of the 2026 season could not get here soon enough for Green Bay Packers fans. A four-game losing streak to end the 2025 season, coupled with an excruciating loss to their archrivals in a wild-card game in which they blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead may have demoralized one of the league’s most passionate fanbases. Good news for Packers fans, however, is our supercomputer foresees another playoff run this season, calculating their probability of making the postseason at 58.0% while also slotting them No. 7 in the team ratings.

Unlike Green Bay, the Minnesota Vikings finished the 2025 season on a relative high note, with wins in their final five games. It wasn’t enough to make the playoffs, though, as they went 9-8 to finish percentage points behind Green Bay at 9-7-1. The Vikings’ final victory of last season came in a Week 18 game in which the Packers rested their starters, but Green Bay took the first matchup in Week 12, with its defense leading the way in a 23-6 win. The Packers limited the Vikings to a season-low 145 total yards of offense and sacked J.J. McCarthy five times while intercepting him twice. Green Bay, though, still had a healthy Micah Parsons in that one (he notched two sacks and three QB hurries), but he is starting this season on the PUP list after tearing his ACL in Week 15 of last season.

McCarthy also won’t be on the field, as former Arizona Cardinal Kyler Murray now takes over at quarterback for a Minnesota team we’ve given a 36.9% chance of making the playoffs with a projected win total of 8.21. Murray missed the final three months of 2025 after suffering a season-ending foot injury in Week 5, but in limited work, he put up solid numbers. Among the 41 quarterbacks with 150+ pass attempts, Murray ranked first in open-target percentage (82.8) and had the lowest pickable pass rate (1.91). Love, meanwhile, had the NFL’s sixth-lowest interception rate (1.4) and ranked eighth in catchability rating (82.0).

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 67.5% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Commanders 90-86-5 Last Meeting: Commanders 24, Eagles 17 (Jan. 4, 2026)

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off an 11-6 season to win a second straight NFC East title and our supercomputer sees another first-place finish coming their way, projecting their odds of winning the division at 41.2% – second only to the Rams among NFC teams. They’re also ranked fifth in our overall team ratings. The Washington Commanders stumbled to a 5-12 finish in 2025, their season derailed by Jayden Daniels only able to play in seven games due to a multitude of injuries. He’s healthy again, but our supercomputer doesn’t see a bounce-back season for the Commanders, putting their likelihood of winning the East at 11.5%, while being ranked 23rd in our overall team ratings.

In 2025, Washington beat Philadelphia 24-17 in Week 18 with the Eagles resting starters for the playoffs, while Philadelphia beat the Commanders in the first meeting just two weeks earlier, grinding out a 29-18 road victory. Saquon Barkley ran for 132 yards in that one, and in four games against the Commanders while with the Eagles – including the 2024 NFC championship game – he’s rushed for 546 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. In last year’s Week 16 matchup, Barkley averaged 4.38 yards before contact – his third highest for any single game in 2025.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 57.3% All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Cowboys 78-47-2 Last Meeting: Giants 34, Cowboys 17 (Jan. 4, 2026)

After back-to-back seasons of missing the playoffs, the Dallas Cowboys appear to be primed to return to the postseason in 2026 in the eyes (or is that the CPU) of our supercomputer. The New York Giants, meanwhile, are staring at a fourth straight year of sitting at home during the playoffs. The Cowboys are ranked sixth in our overall team ratings and our supercomputer gives them a 60.2% chance of making the playoffs – third-highest among NFC teams. The Giants, in the first season with John Harbaugh as coach, are ranked 30th in our team ratings and we’ve projected their playoff odds at 16.0% – lowest in the NFC.

With a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in George Pickens (1,429) and CeeDee Lamb (1,077), Dallas boasts the second-ranked pass-catching unit in our rankings and one of the league’s most explosive offenses – their nine games with 400+ yards were the most in the NFL in 2025. Among the 38 receivers with at least 90 targets last season, Pickens ranked sixth in burn yards per target (12.21), one spot ahead of Lamb (12.16). In the Cowboys’ 40-37 overtime win over the Giants in Week 2, Dak Prescott completed 38-of-52 passes for 361 yards with a pair of touchdowns with Lamb hauling in nine catches for 112 yards and Pickens catching five balls for 68 yards with a 6-yard TD in the final minute of regulation.

New York won the Week 18 rematch 34-17, with Dallas giving way to its backups after halftime. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Cowboys are 16-2 against the Giants with the lone losses coming in meaningless regular-season finales in 2020 and last year.

Jaxson Dart is set to begin his first full season as QB1 for New York after taking over as starter in Week 4 of his 2025 rookie season. Since Week 4, Dart posted a passer rating of 90 or better in nine games – only the Patriots’ Drake Maye (11), Rams’ Matthew Stafford (11), Lions’ Jared Goff (10) and Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers (10) had more such games over that stretch.

Monday, Sept. 14

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: TBD All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Chiefs 73-58 Last Meeting: Broncos 20, Chiefs 13 (Dec. 25, 2025)

Denver Broncos fans were left thinking what could’ve been in January when learning their starting quarterback suffered a season-ending injury. Kansas City Chiefs fans endured similar emotions a little more than a month prior. These two AFC West rivals conclude the Week 1 slate Monday night, and enter the 2026 season highly motivated after disappointing finishes to 2025.

The Broncos went 14-3 last season to capture their first division title since 2015 and the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Any Super Bowl aspirations quickly evaporated, however, when Bo Nix fractured his right ankle late in Denver’s 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in a divisional round game and the season ended a week later with a 10-7 loss to the New England Patriots with a berth in the Super Bowl on the line. Any chance for the Chiefs to make a playoff push and reach a fourth straight Super Bowl ended in Week 14, when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. Without the two-time league MVP, Kansas City scored nine, 12, 13 and 13 points in losing its final four games to finish 6-11.

That stretch included a 20-13 home loss to the Broncos on Christmas, but even in their first meeting of 2025 just over a month earlier, Mahomes and the Kansas City offense had trouble against a Denver team that ranked second in total defense (278.2 yards per game) and third in scoring defense (18.3 points per game), losing 22-19 on Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal as time expired.

Mahomes is on track to start the opener, but it may take a few games for him to regain his normal mobility, and we’ve calculated Kansas City’s win total at 6.91 and its probability of making the playoffs at 27.0% – fourth-lowest in the AFC. Nix has been cleared and has been deemed fully healthy for some time, and we’ve given Denver a 47.1% shot of reaching the postseason. Nix also has a new weapon at his disposal: Jaylen Waddle joins the Broncos after spending his first five seasons with the Miami Dolphins, and he’s coming off a season in which he posted a burn percentage of 67.0 – sixth-highest in the NFL among the 38 receivers targeted 90+ times.

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2026 Week 1 NFL Predictions Opta Analyst.

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