The LSU Tigers have laid low this offseason, not generating many headlines or making any controversial moves.
…
OK, clearly I’m joking. LSU hired Lane Kiffin this offseason, which was drama-filled and contentious. The Tigers are also flirting with the idea of bringing back players who have signed NFL contracts. That has led to SEC teams considering boycotting competition against LSU.
So… yeah. Lane Kiffin knows how to generate controversy and conversation.
But he also knows how to win on the field when actual games are being played. Will he be able to do that in Year 1 in Baton Rouge?
Let’s break it down. But first, check out the other Crystal Ball projections we’ve done:
Alabama Arkansas Auburn Florida Georgia KentuckyNow let’s dive in with the 2026 LSU Tigers:
One Big Question: Can Sam Leavitt stay healthy?
We know what Sam Leavitt can be when he’s healthy. As a dual-threat QB in 2024, he led Arizona State to the College Football Playoff, almost pulling off a win over Texas.
But in 2025, a foot injury limited him to only 7 games. He wasn’t as effective when he did play last year, either. His completion percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt and adjusted yards gained per attempt all dropped.
As for where things stand entering Week 1, Kiffin has said Leavitt looks good this fall. But he’ll need to be great this year if LSU is going to reach its lofty goals. He’ll need to be more efficient than he’s ever been as a runner (4 yards per carry in 2024 and 4.2 YPC in 2025). He doesn’t need to be Jayden Daniels, but he needs to be more effective than he was at ASU.
If Leavitt can be a fringe Heisman Trophy contender this fall? LSU will soar. If he struggles with injuries and ineffectiveness like he did last year? LSU will fail to live up to expectations like it has every year since that magical 2019 campaign.
No pressure.
LSU Projected Wins Total
Here’s what Kalshi has to say about LSU’s win total in 2026:
LSU to win 9 or more games: 56% LSU to win 8 or fewer games: 45%Use Kalshi promo code SDS when you sign up for a new account today and you’ll receive a $25 bonus when you trade $25.
Prediction Markets How many regular-season games will LSU win? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi 8+ wins 61% 9+ wins 55% 10+ wins 37% 11+ wins 20% PredictGame-by-Game Predictions
Here’s how I see the 2026 season playing out for the LSU Tigers:
Week 1: vs. Clemson (W)
I’m out on Dabo Swinney and the Tigers this year. I think he’s on a hotter seat than people want to admit. LSU has more talent on the roster and gets to welcome Clemson to the real Death Valley. Give me LSU in a near-blowout.
Week 2: vs. Louisiana Tech (W)
An in-state matchup is always a bit tricky. The lesser team brings a lot of energy to the game. But again, LSU has a massive talent advantage. Lane Kiffin teams generally put the smackdown on Group of 6 opponents. I don’t expect that to change here.
Week 3: at Ole Miss (L)
The level of vitriol directed at Kiffin when he returns to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium is going to make what happened when he returned to Neyland Stadium a couple of years ago look like a tea party. I’m legitimately concerned for his safety in this one. This is going to be like when Team USA men’s soccer goes into Azteca to play Mexico. I like Pete Golding to get revenge on his former boss and get a signature win for Ole Miss.
Week 4: vs. Texas A&M (W)
I’m higher on LSU’s defense entering this season than most. I think Blake Baker can put together a top-5 unit in the SEC. A strong secondary, led by DJ Pickett, will be enough to make Marcel Reed continue his struggles as a passer against top-tier opponents. Give me the Tigers to pick up a narrow win over Texas A&M to regroup from the Ole Miss loss and boost their Playoff résumé.
Week 5: vs. McNeese (W)
Another overmatched in-state opponent comes to Death Valley to collect a check. LSU wins easily.
Week 6: at Kentucky (W)
Will Stein and the Kentucky Wildcats get a tough draw to start their home SEC slate, receiving a visit from Alabama in Week 2 and LSU in Week 6. After the atmosphere in Oxford, going to Lexington is a little easier for Kiffin and LSU.
Week 7: vs. Mississippi State (W)
Mississippi State should be more competitive this year, but this is always a tough place for the Bulldogs to play. They haven’t won in Baton Rouge since 2014 (with the exception of a win in 2020 during the strange COVID year). LSU gets the best of the Bulldogs in Tiger Stadium once again.
Week 8: at Auburn (W)
Even without former NFL players on the roster, LSU still has a talented defense. Auburn will be more competent under Alex Golesh than it has been under previous coaches, but LSU will grind out a road in and avoid any Jordan-Hare magic for Auburn.
Week 9: OFF
LSU enters the bye week with plenty of momentum despite an early blip at Ole Miss. What awaits the Tigers in the stretch run?
Week 10: vs. Alabama (W)
If this game was in Tuscaloosa, I’d probably pick Alabama. But it isn’t. It’s in Baton Rouge, where LSU is 25-3 over the last 4 seasons. I think LSU has the edge at most positions in this game other than in the secondary, where Alabama is elite. But Leavitt and the running backs have a big outing and the Tigers pull off a major home victory.
Week 11: vs. Texas (W)
If this game was in Austin, I’d definitely pick Texas. But it isn’t. (Anyone else feeling deja vu?) I predict LSU pulls off one of the biggest upsets of the year in this game, shocking the Longhorns and putting a stamp on their now-locked-in Playoff résumé.
Week 12: at Tennessee (W)
This would be a classic letdown spot after 2 massive home wins. But the Tigers won’t be lacking for energy when Lane Kiffin returns to Neyland Stadium once more. The hatred towards the LSU coach in this setting against Tennessee will turn into motivation for the Tigers. Freshman QB Faizon Brandon throws a costly pick in the fourth quarter and Kiffin manages to win at one of his former schools.
Week 13: at Arkansas (W)
I’m projecting Arkansas to be out of bowl contention by this point in the season. LSU will need this win to potentially lock up a spot in the SEC Championship Game. The Tigers finish the year on the road with a lopsided victory.
2026 Projection: 11-1 (8-1)
The win over Texas proves to be a big one for Kiffin’s Tigers, serving as the tiebreaker over the Longhorns and sending them to Atlanta to face the Georgia Bulldogs. What happens in that game? Well, I’m only doing regular-season projections, so I don’t have to answer that question just yet. I’m all-in on Lane Kiffin and LSU and think the sky’s the limit for this squad.
12-Team Playoff Berth? Yes
Going 11-1 in the regular season is good enough to get any SEC team into the Playoff. It should also be enough to have the Tigers hosting a first-round Playoff game, if not avoiding Round 1 altogether. In Year 1, Lane Kiffin gets the Playoff berth that eluded Brian Kelly during his entire tenure in Baton Rouge.
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