Almost 90 years ago this week Britain had basked in a glorious summer that was brought to a sudden and dramatic end by the declaration of war against Germany. Andy Burnham faces something similar, if less violent, as MPs return to Westminster for the first time since his “coronation”.
In 1939 many people wrongly believed hostilities would be over by Christmas. If Burnham does not get these next few months right, his hopes of being more than a one-term prime minister could really be over by the time we are tucking into the turkey.
He has got off to a flying start, bringing an energy and enthusiasm that cautious Keir Starmer never managed. Pledges to cut energy bills, bus fares and pub taxes, end homelessness, block vape and betting shops and arm Ukraine have all been well received. But after this flying start gravity is starting to reassert itself.
There have been accusations of U-turns on political donations, council house building and the Elgin marbles along with reports of delays to the decision on both North Sea oil and gas drilling and welfare reform. If he is not careful that could start to add up to an all too familiar story.
The VAT cut on energy bills has been eclipsed by an increase in the price cap. Making it one of his first acts, to try to give people ‘breathing space’, may buy him some credit. The danger is that voters feel gaslighted to see bills rise after he pledged to act. That is why we discussed the move more than once while I was in 10 Downing Street but never did it. Most polling shows an electorate short on patience and sick of being promised action on the cost of living that does not translate to better living standards.
Then there is his decision to intervene over prisoner releases. The PM undoubtedly speaks for the public when he says he finds the early release scheme unacceptable. But the truth is that, unless something has drastically changed since my time in government, there simply are not enough jail places or any way of suddenly creating some. (My bright idea of tents behind barbed wire in the woods was repeatedly rejected over the risk of escapes.)
Former Tory cabinet minister David Gauke’s review was intended to take the politics out of the issue as far as was humanly possible and point to the appalling inheritance the government received. Burnham’s changes means the killers of PC Andrew Harper will stay behind bars but there will always be hugely difficult edge cases. And many Labour MPs are deeply unhappy that offenders who have committed domestic violence will walk free early.
There is also disquiet in the Labour ranks over devolution plans, particularly among Scottish and Welsh MPs who wonder where they will be left if even more powers are given away to the devolved governments.
This is the backdrop to Parliament’s return.
So far Burnham has fought a phoney war with a barrage of announcements met by almost no incoming fire. That changes as Parliament returns. Now he must face Kemi Badenoch at Prime Minister’s Questions, and the Conservative leader is revamping her top team to take on his new-look Cabinet. Reform chief Nigel Farage is returning from his summer by-election binning in Clacton. And, most importantly, the countdown to the Budget is getting under way.
Headlines about tax, borrowing, headroom and “budget jitters” are just beginning and speculation about the package to be announced can suck the oxygen from other news. Barring a last-minute windfall, Burnham and his Chancellor, John Healey, face some stark choices. There is a defence spending black hole to fill, as Healey knows better than anyone. And he will have to settle the bill run up with summer pledges, on the promise that those announcements were just the start.
The 28 October Budget is almost certainly Labour’s last, best chance to do something radical enough to make voters feel better off before the next election, which must be held by summer 2029. Our new PM has had a golden, good-vibrations summer. But the nights are drawing in, and autumn could set the seal on his premiership. The next general election will not be won over the next few months. But it could be lost.
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