Thunderstorms are set to hit parts of southern England and Wales on Saturday, with heavy rain likely to disrupt festivals and other bank holiday weekend events.
The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning stretching from south-west England and parts of Wales across the Midlands to the east of England. The warning will be in force from midday until 9pm on Saturday.
The forecaster warned of a risk of flash flooding after an unusually dry summer, with travellers told to expect longer journey times as the rain sets in for the weekend.
Where are thunderstorms forecast?
The Met Office said Saturday will be a “very unsettled day for England and Wales”, with “thunderstorms, lightning, hail by later in the afternoon”.
Met Office meteorologist Greg Dewhurst told The i Paper that those in the affected area could “really heavy rain” for the rest of the day into Sunday.
“Some places could see an inch of rain in less than an hour,” Dewhurst said. “This is likely to lead to surface flooding, it could lead to some surface water on the roads.”
He also warned that while those areas within the yellow warning zone will experience the “most intense” rainfall, other areas are going to be very wet this weekend, with heavy rain expected from the west of England to Wales and Northern Ireland on Saturday.
A yellow weather warning is in place across central and southern parts of England and Wales (Photo: Met Office)There is also an increased risk of surface flooding in England and Wales, where the drought has left the ground dry and unable to absorb water quickly. The Met Office previously said the UK is on course for its hottest summer on record after five heatwaves.
“Really hard, dry ground and then intense rainfall means the rain can’t seep through the ground,” Dewhurst said.
Scotland and the north of England will have a “muggy feel” on Saturday, whilst in southern England, temperatures will drop to around 22°C.
Will events be cancelled?
Rain delayed the start of play at Lord’s cricket ground on the third day of the second men’s Test match between England and Pakistan.
“Rainfall and cricket don’t go well together,” said Dewhurst. “We can expect highly reduced play today with rain going through.”
While he expects “some disruption” to smaller local events like village fetes, Dewhurst thinks large scale music festivals in Reading and Leeds will go ahead as planned, though he recommended festival-goers prepare for their “muddy clothes”.
Ground staff wipe water the play surface at Lord’s cricket ground as play gets delayed by rain. (Photo: AP /Dave Shopland)Will the weather improve over the weekend?
Dewhurst said the area of low pressure bringing the rain will pull away tonight, with rainfall easing off, but another weather front from moving in tomorrow means today’s weather is likely to be repeated. The Met Office is currently predicting “showery rain” and “strong breeze” in the south on Sunday.
Although the current yellow warning expires on Saturday night, Dewhurst warned that the Met Office could issue another warning on Sunday morning, which would be posted on their website and via social media.
“Anywhere could see thunderstorms and the risk of hail tomorrow, with another 20-30mm rain forecast in an hour,” he said.
El Niño brings wetter and stormier conditions
The climate phenomenon known as El Niño is set to keep stormy weather going into autumn and winter.
El Niño is the biggest fluctuation in the world’s climate system and this one will see the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature rise by 3°C, according to the Met Office’s forecasts, classifying the event as a “super El Niño”.
Wet and stormy weather is set to continue into autumn and winter because of the “super El Niño” weather front. (Photo: James Linsell Clark/SWNS)A “super El Niño” is defined as tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures reaching 1.5-2°C or more above average, prompting experts to predict this year’s event as the strongest in living memory.
Its effects vary worldwide, including impacts on hurricane season in the Caribbean and the monsoon season in Asia.
Because of the UK’s distance from the Pacific, its impact is less predictable, but wetter, stormier conditions can be expected.
Will there be another heatwave?
Despite the impending lower temperatures, a heatwave could return in September.
The Met Office’s long-range forecast predicts that the UK will experience “drier and more settled interludes,” especially in the south, with temperatures likely to be near average, though “some short-lived warm or very warm spells are possible” from 31 August to 9 September.
Then from 10 September to 24 September, it forecasts drier weather and the possibility of warmer weather, with a chance of hot spells in the south.
But the forecaster has not given a definitive view on whether there will be a heatwave.
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