The Cubs have plenty of bullpen questions right now, but let’s focus on another area of the pitching staff.
After a big week for the starting staff, where would the Cubs playoff rotation stand right now?
It already seems to be a hot-button issue surrounding this team and that will only continue to increase as the calendar flips to September and approaches the postseason.
At this point, the overwhelming odds are the Cubs are going to be playing a best-of-three Wild-Card Series — and not sitting out the first round, lining up their rotation for a best-of-five Division Series.
So who starts Game 1 for the Cubs? And who would follow?
At this point last season, it was a pretty clear answer for the Cubs. Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton were the obvious choices to get the ball first — the only question was who would start Game 1.
When Horton hit the shelf due to a fluke rib injury, Boyd became the clear-cut answer.
This year, things are quite different.
The Cubs don’t have a surefire ace — rather, they have a staff of a bunch of solid-to-good options.
Let’s evaluate the options, assuming the Cubs are playing a Wild-Card Series:
Clay Holmes
If the season ended today, Holmes very well may be the choice to get the ball in Game 1.
He tossed 7 shutout innings Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks and has been very good since a rough debut with the Cubs.
Holmes has allowed just 1 run over his last 3 starts (19 innings), good for a 0.47 ERA. He isn’t racking up the strikeouts (9 whiffs), but he is pitching to weak contact in front of the best defense in baseball.
Quality outing from Clay. ✨ pic.twitter.com/cZQPHqdIhG
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 26, 2026This is exactly the pitcher the Cubs were hoping they were acquiring from the Mets at the trade deadline. It also continues what he’s done this season — he had a 2.39 ERA in 9 starts with the Mets before a leg injury cost him several months.
Right now, Holmes looks like the easy choice to get the ball in Game 1 of a Wild-Card Series. But, a lot could change over the next month and Holmes also has a ton of experience pitching out of the bullpen.
Matthew Boyd
Boyd has already come out and said he wants the ball in Game 1 again, telling the Sun-Times’ Steve Greenberg as much last week.
He’s had a couple tough outings over the last few weeks, but he also has as much upside as anybody in the rotation right now. It would not surprise me if he pitches well down the stretch and emerges as an option for Game 1 — or even a crucial Game 2.
Boyd was on the IL two separate times this year and got off to a bit of an uneven start to the season even when he was on the mound. But he’s been a workhorse since returning from the IL in late-June.
Boyd has thrown at least 6 innings in nine of his last 10 starts after another strong outing Wednesday, racking up six quality starts in that stretch.
Kevin Gausman
The biggest addition at the trade deadline, Gausman has been up-and-down since joining the Cubs rotation. He has two great starts — going 7 strong innings in both of them.
But he had two clunkers in the middle, allowing 9 runs in 9 innings.
That’s sort of been how his whole season has gone, as he’s had some really good games in addition to some clunkers.
That inconsistency makes him the No. 3 choice at the moment, though the upside is certainly there for improved performance down the stretch.
After all, this is a guy who was the ace of a Blue Jays team that made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series last fall.
Chicago Cubs pitcher Kevin Gausman (12) pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn ImagesThe others
Where do Shota Imanaga and David Peterson factor into the Cubs playoff rotation?
If the Cubs need a fourth starter, either would factor into the mix for that spot. Imanaga probably gets a slight edge there given Peterson has also had success — and plenty of experience — pitching out of the bullpen.
But Imanaga just turned in the shortest outing of his MLB career on Sunday (only 2 innings) and has been prone to serving up the home run ball this season. So far, the concern is not as high as it was down the stretch last year when Imanaga had a 6.51 ERA and gave up 10 homers over his last 5 starts.
That led to a point where Imanaga was not exactly in the circle of trust in the postseason and did not even get into a win-or-go-home NLDS Game 5 against the Brewers even though it was his day to pitch and he had warmed up several times in the bullpen.
The propensity for homers is a scary thought in the playoffs, but Imanaga has generally been able to limit the damage this season. He has been the anchor of the rotation this year amid all the injuries — but he will need to have a strong September to be a big factor in the playoff rotation.
Peterson has been really solid since coming over to the Cubs, with a 3.93 ERA in 10 outings (9 starts). He’s been pitching well of late, too, with a 2.20 ERA over his last 8 games.
Final thoughts
With the obvious caveat again — if the season ended today, here’s how I think the Cubs would line up their playoff rotation:
Game 1: Clay HolmesGame 2: Matthew BoydGame 3: Kevin Gausman
Gausman would be on the mound in a do-or-die Game 3 of a Wild-Card Series or else Game 1 of the NLDS if the Cubs advance.
That leaves Imanaga as the next option, with Peterson pitching out of the bullpen.
Edward Cabrera is a non-factor for the rotation right now, as the Cubs have said he is going to work in a multi-inning relief role whenever he returns from a blister issue (if he returns still this season). Cabrera has simply not pitched well enough this season when he has been on the mound to warrant becoming a factor in the playoff rotation — and I think there’s even some question whether he would be on the postseason roster at all if he does come back.
Javier Assad is an X-factor here, as he has pitched really well lately and is only in the minors because the Cubs have a roster crunch and he had options remaining. Colin Rea and Aaron Civale also have starting experience, but are currently pitching out of the bullpen and it would take several injuries for either of them to draw a postseason start.
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