A Way Too Early Look at LA 2028 – Setting the Stage ...Middle East

By Barry Revzin on SwimSwam

Now that the Commonwealth Games, the European Championships, and the Pan Pacific Championships are all over, it’s time to take a breather and look ahead. Far ahead. We’re now just two years away from the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics!

I realize that two years out is way, way too early to start making medal predictions. After all, in 2018, nobody would’ve called Lydia Jacoby a medal contender in the 100 breast for the Tokyo Olympics. For that matter, nobody in 2018 would’ve considered that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics would have failed to occur in 2020…

In any case, the point here is just to have fun and take stock of what the state of the sport is right now. We get periodic comments about who is the biggest guarantee for gold right now, so let’s try to answer that question! I’m going to look at active swimmers’ best times since the Paris Olympics and try to see what we can learn.

Gold Medal Favorites

If we just look at the gap from #1 to #2 in the post-Paris time frame, that spread looks like this:  

 

Event #1 Time #2 Time Gap W 100 FLY Gretchen Walsh (USA) 54.33 Roos Vanotterdijk (BEL) 55.84 2.78% W 400 IM Summer McIntosh (CAN) 4:23.65 Yu Zidi (CHN) 4:30.79 2.71% W 200 FLY Summer McIntosh (CAN) 2:01.65 Regan Smith (USA) 2:04.73 2.53% W 50 FLY Gretchen Walsh (USA) 24.51 Kate Douglass (USA) 24.99 1.96% W 50 FREE Kate Douglass (USA) 23.19 Gretchen Walsh (USA) 23.55 1.55% M 200 IM Leon Marchand (FRA) 1:52.69 Hubert Kos (HUN) 1:54.24 1.38% W 50 BACK Sara Curtis (ITA) 26.56 Katharine Berkoff (USA) 26.90 1.28% W 400 FREE Summer McIntosh (CAN) 3:54.18 Katie Ledecky (USA) 3:56.81 1.12% M 50 BACK Kliment Kolesnikov (RUS) 23.68 Xu Jiayu (CHN) 23.92 1.01% M 200 BACK Hubert Kos (HUN) 1:52.30 Pieter Coetze (RSA) 1:53.36 0.94% W 1500 FREE Katie Ledecky (USA) 15:23.21 Simona Quadarella (ITA) 15:31.79 0.93% M 400 IM Leon Marchand (FRA) 4:04.56 Tomoyuki Matsushita (JPN) 4:06.75 0.90% W 200 IM Summer McIntosh (CAN) 2:05.70 Yu Yiting (CHN) 2:06.82 0.89% M 50 FREE Cameron McEvoy (AUS) 20.88 Egor Kornev (RUS) 21.06 0.86% M 1500 FREE Johannes Liebmann (GER) 14:26.79 Samuel Short (AUS) 14:33.97 0.83% W 200 BACK Kaylee McKeown (AUS) 2:03.33 Regan Smith (USA) 2:04.29 0.78% W 200 FREE Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) 1:52.86 Lani Pallister (AUS) 1:53.65 0.70% W 200 BREAST Kate Douglass (USA) 2:18.50 Evgenia Chikunova (RUS) 2:19.32 0.59% M 50 FLY Egor Kornev (RUS) 22.36 Maxime Grousset (FRA) 22.48 0.54% M 200 BREAST Shin Ohashi (JPN) 2:06.59 Yamato Fukusawa (JPN) 2:07.24 0.51% M 100 FREE David Popovici (ROU) 46.51 Egor Kornev (RUS) 46.74 0.49% W 100 BREAST Angharad Evans (GBR) 1:04.87 Anna Elendt (GER) 1:05.19 0.49% M 100 BREAST Van Mathias (USA) 58.01 Qin Haiyang (CHN) 58.23 0.38% W 50 BREAST Tang Qianting (CHN) 29.44 Ruta Meilutyte (LTU) 29.54 0.34% W 100 BACK Kaylee McKeown (AUS) 57.16 Regan Smith (USA) 57.35 0.33% M 100 FLY Kristof Milak (HUN) 49.48 Maxime Grousset (FRA) 49.62 0.28% M 50 BREAST Simone Cerasuolo (ITA) 26.20 Ludovico Viberti (ITA) 26.27 0.27% M 400 FREE Lukas Märtens (GER) 3:39.96 Samuel Short (AUS) 3:40.52 0.25% W 800 FREE Katie Ledecky (USA) 8:04.12 Summer McIntosh (CAN) 8:05.07 0.20% M 200 FREE David Popovici (ROU) 1:43.53 Luke Hobson (USA) 1:43.73 0.19% M 100 BACK Pieter Coetze (RSA) 51.71 Thomas Ceccon (ITA) 51.80 0.17% M 200 FLY Leon Marchand (FRA) 1:51.72 Luca Urlando (USA) 1:51.87 0.13% M 800 FREE Samuel Short (AUS) 7:36.73 Ahmed Jaouadi (TUN) 7:36.88 0.03% W 100 FREE Marrit Steenbergen (NED) 51.68 Kate Douglass (USA) 51.69 0.02%

 

At the top of the list, it’s the Gretchen Walsh and Summer McIntosh show. In four events (Gretchen in the 50/100 fly, Summer in the 200 fly and 400 IM), they are very, very, very far ahead of their next active competitor. Kate Douglass is next on the list in the 50 free, which is especially noteworthy since, as we’ve recently written, Gretchen isn’t just #2 in this event since Paris — she’s #2 all-time.

We have to go all the way down to #6 on the list to get our first male event — Leon Marchand‘s unbelievable world record in the 200 IM about 1.4% ahead of the fast-improving Hubert Kos. We didn’t get to see Marchand swim the 200 IM at Euros due to injury, but we definitely hope he recovers soon.

The other three events with at least a 1% gap are Sara Curtis (UVA – European Theater)’s new world record in the 50 back, Summer again in the 400 free, and Kliment Kolesnikov (inscrutable acronym) also in the 50 back.

At the very bottom of the list we have the events where attempting to make a gold medal prediction right now is extremely fraught. With the narrowest possible margin, Marrit Steenbergen is just 0.01s ahead of Kate Douglass in the 100 free. Before 2026, there were only two 51 second swims in the history of this event. In 2026 alone, there have been nine.

While not likely to touch the world record anytime soon, the men’s 800 free has been historically exciting over the last several years — with Sam Short’s 7:36.7 barely ahead of Ahmed Jaouadi‘s 7:36.8. I can’t predict who will win, but the race will probably be spectacular.

Medal Favorites

For some events, there may not be a clear #1, but at least there is a clear gap at the top right now. For instance, in the women’s 200 breast, the rankings since Paris are:

2:18.50 — Kate Douglass 2:19.32 — Evgenia Chikunova 2:19.70 — Angharad Evans 2:21.71 — Tes Schouten

Three women under 2:20, fairly close to each other. Then two full seconds back to 4th place.

There’s a similar shape in the women’s 800 free with the top three about seven seconds ahead of fourth (although Summer McIntosh is unlikely to swim it in LA). Ledecky is shooting to become the first swimmer to win five consecutive medals in an individual event. What color will that fifth medal be? 

8:04.12 — Katie Ledecky 8:05.07 — Summer McIntosh 8:05.98 — Lani Pallister 8:12.81 — Simona Quadarella

The next one down is another women’s event, and one I’ve already talked about: the women’s 100 free. As with Summer in the 800 free, we have no idea what Kate Douglass will swim in LA:

51.68 — Marrit Steenbergen 51.69 — Kate Douglass 51.88 — Anna Moesch 52.33 — Mollie O’Callaghan

The Photo Finishes

For some events, not only is there not a clear #1 or a clear gap at the top, but it seems like the entire final might be right there. In the men’s 200 free, there are nine guys within 1% of the top time. There are only nine men that have ever broken 1:44 in the 200 free, and five of them are active right now:

1:43.53 — David Popovici 1:43.73 — Luke Hobson 1:43.76 — Leon Marchand 1:43.92 — Hwang Sunwoo 1:43.96 — Gabriel Jett 1:44.25 — Lukas Märtens 1:44.53 — Zhang Zhanshuo 1:44.54 — Tatsuya Murasa 1:44.55 — Tomas Navikonis

In the men’s 100 breast, there are similarly nine guys within a half percent of bronze position, with 3rd through 6th spanning a mere 0.05. And that’s with Adam Peaty nowhere in the top group either! Van “Van Pacs” Mathias is the top breaststroker in the last two seasons — and still more than a second away from Peaty’s record: 

58.01 — Van Mathias 58.23 — Qin Haiyang 58.53 — Kirill Prigoda 58.54 — Shin Ohashi 58.57 — Dong Zhihao 58.58 — Nicolo Martinenghi 58.68 — Ivan Kozhakin 58.75 — Lucas Matzerath 58.82 — Simone Cerasuolo

The men’s 200 breast is nearly as absurd — #2 through #9 span 0.69 seconds, with four Japanese swimmers in there and Qin Haiyang (the world record holder) a mere fourth:

2:06.59 — Shin Ohashi 2:07.24 — Yamato Fukasawa 2:07.32 — Filip Nowacki 2:07.41 — Qin Haiyang 2:07.53 — Ippei Watanabe 2:07.58 — Josh Bey 2:07.62 — Gabe Nunziata 2:07.73 — Caspar Corbeau 2:07.93 — Yu Hanaguruma

The men’s 800 free I mentioned earlier for its close race at the top — but it really is a close race everywhere. Just as the men’s 200 breast has four Japanese swimmers in its top nine, here four of the top nine are German. German Trials might feature a medal-worthy time being left at home:

7:36.73 — Samuel Short 7:36.88 — Ahmed Jaouadi 7:37.59 — Johannes Liebmann 7:38.12 — Sven Schwarz 7:39.10 — Lukas Märtens 7:41.10 — Florian Wellbrock 7:41.52 — Daniel Wiffen 7:41.75 — Zalan Sarkany 7:42.52 — Bobby Finke

Looking Forward

The split between the events might be the most interesting take-away. The three most-bunched events (and eight of the top nine!) are all men’s, the nine most spread-out are women’s. Men’s swimming right now is a knife fight; women’s is in an era of dynasties. In the below table, I’m showing the events by “bunching”: how wide the spread is from 1st to 6th, and how many swimmers are within 1% of 1st and 0.5% of 3rd place, respectively:

Event #1–#6 Spread Within 1% of #1 Within 0.5% of #3 M 50 BREAST 0.69% 6 6 M 200 FREE 0.70% 9 6 M 200 BREAST 0.78% 8 9 W 100 BREAST 0.83% 6 7 M 100 BACK 0.85% 7 6 M 800 FREE 0.96% 6 5 M 100 BREAST 0.98% 6 9 M 1500 FREE 1.13% 3 6 M 100 FREE 1.27% 4 4 W 200 FREE 1.35% 3 5 M 50 FLY 1.43% 3 4 M 400 FREE 1.45% 3 4 W 100 FREE 1.45% 3 3 W 50 BREAST 1.49% 3 3 M 100 FLY 1.54% 3 4 M 400 IM 1.70% 2 5 M 200 BACK 1.74% 2 6 W 100 BACK 1.78% 3 3 W 200 IM 1.96% 2 5 W 50 BACK 2.00% 1 3 M 200 FLY 2.06% 3 3 M 50 BACK 2.07% 1 4 W 200 BACK 2.21% 3 3 M 50 FREE 2.25% 2 3 M 200 IM 2.58% 1 4 W 200 BREAST 2.69% 3 3 W 800 FREE 2.91% 3 3 W 400 FREE 3.06% 1 4 W 50 FLY 3.10% 1 4 W 1500 FREE 3.16% 2 3 W 200 FLY 3.34% 1 5 W 50 FREE 3.41% 1 5 W 400 IM 3.64% 1 4 W 100 FLY 3.77% 1 4

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