Nato’s recently released Land Warfighting Concept outlines how the alliance envisages fighting back any Russian invasion by relying especially on drones and long-range strikes. It would necessarily rely heavily on the UK, as one of Europe’s main military powers.
While Russia is currently mired in Ukraine, the war will end someday. The expectation is that it will then commit to a significant reconstitution of its military – especially if Vladimir Putin is still in power.
Although this will take years, as a UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) analyst told The i Paper, it “will have the opportunity to build a new army from the ground up, using its hard-won experience from the war”.
Given that in the modern surveillance age, it would be impossible for Russian preparations for any substantial attack to go wholly unnoticed, in a time of heightened alert Britain would likely increase its commitment to the eastern flank.
British forces also regularly cycle through eastern and central Europe on periodic joint exercises, as well as carrying out sea and air reconnaissance missions and providing allies with additional capacity in times of need. Until late 2024, for example, a battery of Sky Sabre air-defence missiles protected a vital logistics hub near Rzeszów in Poland, through which much military aid to Ukraine flows.
In the event of a Russian attack on Nato’s eastern flank, it would respond with a three-fold strategy. The UK would play a significant role in all three phases.
First, Nato would use its aerial superiority to target missile and drone platforms and bases to prevent the kind of long-range strikes proving so devastating in the Ukraine war. The UK already has significant capabilities, such as air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles and sea- and ground-launched Nyan drones. Meanwhile, it is leading a European initiative to develop the next generation of deep precision strike capabilities.
The RAF and Fleet Air Arm would also provide aircraft, especially stealthy F-35 jets, to joint combat operations under Nato’s Allied Air Command.
An operator of a a Viking, an Iveco Defence Vehicles unmanned ground vehicle. Drones will play a central role in securing a defensive buffer zone in the event of an invasion of Nato (Photo: Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)Second, a defensive buffer zone would be established along the borders of Russia and its client state Belarus. This would be secured not by soldiers but by drones, operating on land, in the air and on the water. Already, the thousand-strong British deployment to Estonia is being reprofiled as a larger Mobile Anti-Armour Force, relying on drones and highly mobile missile teams to blunt any tank assault.
Finally, although Nato is very clear that it would not seek territorial gains inside Russia, it would launch strikes deep into the enemy territory to disrupt its military capabilities, using missiles, drones and special forces. Their targets would be crucial airfields, railway lines, arms factories and bridges via which supplies of men and materiel reach the front.
In this, not only would British special forces play a full role but so too would the intelligence services. The UK is accepted even among its peers as having Europe’s most capable intelligence apparatus and, especially if the US is preoccupied with other crises or unwilling to engage fully, this would be crucial in targeting and supporting such operations.
However, any such conflict would not likely be quickly resolved, and equal pressure would fall on the home front. It is not just that a conventional military attack would be accompanied by disinformation, cyberattacks and sabotage. It is also a question of the social resilience and ability to ramp up the production of necessary materiel.
The Sky Sabre air defence missile system is capable of shooting down cruise missiles and drones (Photo: Corporal Adam J Wakefield/PA)Here the picture is mixed. Modern war is extraordinarily voracious: at peak, Russian forces in Ukraine were firing up to 70,000 artillery rounds a day, and each side expends up to 10,000 drones daily. Although funds have been committed to build up to six new munitions and explosives factories, the UK – like the rest of Nato – will still struggle to meet the expected needs of any longer war.
Hence the importance of deep strikes on Russian factories and supply lines. As the MoD analyst put it, “the next best thing to having enough ammunition yourself is making sure your enemy doesn’t have enough, either.”
Of course, no plan survives contact with the enemy, and Russia’s strategists will no doubt be considering how to foil Nato’s designs. To this end, some have questioned the wisdom of openly discussing the Concept.
The point is, though, that, for all the hopes of the most extreme Western hawks and the claims of their Russian counterparts, Nato wants to deter, not fight a war.
Most Western intelligence assessments agree that the risks of Russia initiating open military conflict with Nato remain extremely low. But defence planners must consider both the unlikely threats and also those over the horizon.
As a Nato official told The i Paper: “We discuss the unthinkable, we plan for it, in the hope that it ensures it remains theoretical.”
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