Climate models show that when global temperatures rise slowly due to small year-over-year increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), evaporation and sea ice feedbacks maintain Atlantic currents' strength at temperatures exceeding 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) of warming above preindustrial levels. By contrast, a rapid rise in global temperatures driven by yearly greenhouse gas emissions equal to or higher than today's may trigger a tipping point at just 3.6 F (2 C) of warming, researchers found.
The study investigated how different rates of climate change could affect the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant network of ocean currents that includes the Gulf Stream and carries heat to the Northern Hemisphere. An unstable AMOC could make the climate in some regions unrecognizable in the long term. Specifically, slower currents could unleash freezing weather in parts of Europe, exacerbate sea level rise along the U.S. East Coast, and trigger droughts around the equator, previous research has shown.
AMOC weakening originates in the North Atlantic Ocean, where surface waters sink less when temperatures rise. (Image credit: IPPC AR6 WGI, chapter 9)The AMOC is vulnerable to global warming because the circulation relies on surface waters in the North Atlantic sinking to form bottom currents that propel the system. Surface waters sink if they are denser — typically, colder and saltier — than the layers underneath. But rising heat in the North Atlantic is warming surface waters, and Arctic meltwater is reducing their salt concentration, so these essential bottom currents are forming less reliably than they were before.
The slow CO2 ramp simulated a much slower increase than the current rise in atmospheric CO2, which is between 2.4 and 2.5 ppm per year.
The results were published Aug. 13 in the journal Nature Climate Change. They suggest that the pace of warming, rather than the extra heat on its own, will determine whether the AMOC persists under climate change. In the slow CO2 ramp experiment, the AMOC remained strong until up to 9.9 F (5.5 C) of warming before the system collapsed. In the faster CO2 ramps, the AMOC collapsed when warming reached 3.6 F.
AMOC strength for a slow (black) and fast (blue) increase in atmospheric CO2. The yellow star marks the onset of the AMOC collapse under fast warming, at around 3.6 F (2 C) in this model. (Image credit: van Westen et al., 2026)The research has implications for climate policy, as current targets and risk assessments are based on temperature thresholds. Policy agendas should also consider the rate of warming, the researchers argued in the statement.
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The new study shows that an AMOC collapse can be avoided if we slow the pace of global warming, but the exact limit is still unclear, Jenny Mecking, a research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in the U.K. who was not involved in the study, told Live Science in an email.
"While this study alone is not enough to establish bounds on the rate of CO2 change to prevent AMOC collapse, it highlights the importance of considering the rate of CO2 increase alongside the level of global warming when investigating earth system responses to climate change," Mecking said.
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