In a post on social media platform X, Musk pointed to a number of recent incidents of AI systems exceeding their previously assumed limits, including hacking external systems and completing previously unsolved math problems.
While definitions vary, the term is most often applied to AI, with the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) viewed as its primary catalyst. The emergence of AGI — a future AI system that can exhibit human-level cognitive function and reasoning across any discipline rather than a specifically trained subset — represents a significant milestone for the technology.
Elon Musk has pointed to a string of recent AI achievements in math and computer science as evidence for reaching the singularity. But experts aren't convinced. (Image credit: Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)
According to a 2025 study that analyzed over 8,000 predictions from AI experts, entrepreneurs and scientists, some believe there is a roughly 50% probability that human-level AGI will be reached within a few decades. Some figures — including Google DeepMind co-founder and chair Demis Hassabis — suggest we're in the early stages of the singularity already.
"Since it involves an intellectual runaway, it will probably occur faster than any technical revolution seen so far," he wrote. "The precipitating event will likely be unexpected —- perhaps even to the researchers involved."
In these examples, experts said the containment breach and subsequent hacks happened because the models were trying to fulfill their prompts as efficiently as possible. Earlier this year, Anthropic's Project Glasswing also demonstrated an ability to discover and map thousands of previously undetected zero-day cybersecurity vulnerabilities, while other AI models have disproved or solved a range of previously incomplete math problems.
"To be honest, that was incompetence on both sides — they claimed the AI was being trained in the ExploitGym, but that just means it wasn't properly sandboxed," he told Live Science in an email. "Sandboxing is something we do all the time to stop this sort of exfiltration and infiltration." For example, Crowcroft said he and colleagues designed a system for the U.K.'s National Health Service to safely work on confidential data behind double firewalls, and for years, the Financial Conduct Authority (the U.K.'s financial services regulator) has had a system for running algorithmic traders in a safe sandbox.
Assessing intelligence
British computer scientist Alan Turing first described the "imitation game" in his seminal 1950 paper on machine intelligence. (Image credit: Pictures from History via Getty Images)To measure whether these systems are actually gaining true intelligence, researchers have historically relied on standardized benchmarks. One of the earliest examples was the "Turing test," devised by computing pioneer Alan Turing, which evaluates whether an AI could convincingly fool an evaluator into believing it was human.
"It's a test of what it would take for a human to decide that an AI is intelligent, which is kind of the reason that it's been a bit of a moving benchmark, because what it takes to convince us changes," he told Live Science. "It's all about creating typed text on a screen, and that's a very limited window into what we mean by intelligence."
Another advanced metric, Humanity's Last Exam, includes around 2,500 Ph.D.-level questions across a broad range of subjects and requires advanced reasoning capabilities. Although this benchmark is not strictly a test of AGI, experts say machines will be able to reliably ace this test as a prerequisite to meeting the definition.
The AI hype machine
Crowcroft expressed skepticism of Silicon Valley's assertion that the singularity is upon us. "Musk is, like the folks at OpenAI and Anthropic, talking nonsense just to keep the hype afloat," he said. "The point at which AI improvements are being mainly achieved by using AI to code and optimize itself ... is certainly a thing slowly arriving. Mark Handley, a professor of networked systems at University College London, and OpenAI "rewrote their entire data center protocol stack using agentic programming fairly recently," Crowcroft added. "But using tools to make better tools is as old as the flint and iron age — and in computing, as old as compilers, debuggers and optimizers."
Marcus pointed to 10 tasks he devised with AI researcher Miles Brundage, executive director of the AI Verification and Evaluation Research Institute. AI should be able to do these tasks just as well or better than the best human experts to be classified as AGI. They include writing Oscar-caliber screenplays; drafting cogent, persuasive legal briefs without hallucinating any cases; and making Nobel-caliber scientific discoveries.
Scientist Ray Kurzweil has published two books on the topic of the singularity, including "The Singularity is Near" (Duckworth, 2005) and "The Singularity is Nearer" (Vintage, 2025) — in which he cut his timeline for achieving ASI. (Image credit: Big Event Media / Stringer via Getty Images)Related stories
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Seth, meanwhile, argues that we'll only be able to identify the singularity in hindsight. "From anywhere you are on an exponential curve, things will always look impossibly steep in front of you and irrelevantly flat behind you," he said. "It's a very bad idea to use as evidence the idea that we seem to be at a critical point ... because that's just a property of wherever you are on an exponential curve."
"They're very good at something, like coding or math proofs — but commonsense reasoning is really not so good, and doing things in the real world is not great," Seth said. "The singularity has got to be good at everything and change everything. Being really good at one or two — or even a large number of — things is not being in the singularity."
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