Nigel Farage’s victory in Clacton is the least surprising UK by-election result for many years.
Given his relatively comfortable win at the 2024 general election and the fact that none of the main parties fielded a candidate, no one seriously thought the Reform leader would lose.
But while Farage called the by-election in an effort to shore up his political position amid a parliamentary probe into Reform’s finances, it is difficult to conclude the gambit worked for him – an impression reinforced by the fact he didn’t even turn up to hear himself declared the winner this morning.
Farage’s 22,239 votes was an increase on the 21,225 he won in 2024. Reform spinners including MP Lee Anderson have been quick out of the blocks to claim that Farage increasing his vote on a lower turnout of 44.37% (compared to 58.7% at the general election) is a huge success.
However, given the absence of serious competitors and the respectable 9,455 votes won by novelty candidate Count Binface, it hardly adds up to a ringing endorsement. As people have observed, while Farage got 63.3 per cent of the votes cast, one in four voters (26.9 per cent) preferred to vote for a bin.
Turnout was lower than any other by-election in England this parliament, though higher than two which took place in Scotland in June.
Count Binface gestures while standing with other candidates after Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage was declared the winner for the Clacton by-election, triggered by the resignation Farage. REUTERS/Jack TaylorFarage’s decision not to attend this morning’s declaration has raised eyebrows, with Reform providing conflicting reasons for the no-show.
In a speech to supporters earlier, Farage said that he had been advised by Essex Police of an “organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result” and that he was “damned if I’m going to stand on a stage having won a resounding victory… to be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies”.
Later, a Reform spokesperson said that it was more than humiliation, with Essex Police advising Farage of a “credible threat against him”.
But this was contradicted by Essex Police, who said that they had not advised any candidate to stay away and that there was a policing operation “to ensure the safety and security of all participants in the count”.
Anderson poured further fuel on the controversy this morning by suggesting on BBC Breakfast that the force had lied – he told the broadcaster that some police forces were “about as honest as you lot [the media]”.
There will be suspicions that Farage decided not to come because of the embarrassment of standing alongside the 33 other candidates in the by-election – the most in British electoral history – and particularly his nemesis, Count Binface.
It took the returning officer five minutes and 44 seconds to get through all the candidates.
Farage decided not to attend the count over reports of a “threat” which was later denied by Essex Police. Photo by Ben Montgomery/Getty Images)Critics will say it smacks of sour grapes from Farage because the by-election he triggered developed into a farce rather than the glorious acclamation he had hoped for.
Beyond today’s row over the no-show, Farage faces a much more serious threat in the shape of the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.
His re-election formally reactivates the investigation by the Commissioner into whether he should have declared the £5m “gift” he received from the crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne.
Farage had resigned and triggered the contest in a pre-emptive attempt to demonstrate his legitimacy and dissuade opponents from trying to force a by-election in Clacton in relation to the Harborne probe.
Reform spinners will spend today arguing that the 66.3 per cent of the vote achieved by Farage proves that a second contest is futile. But Labour, the Tories and Restore Britain will all be up for a re-run if they get the chance.
While Farage would be the heavy favourite to win a second contest, if one does occur, it would just amplify the accusations of financial sleaze which have already been so damaging to Reform.
In the coming weeks, Farage’s future will hang on the answer to a couple of questions.
Will the Standards Commissioner find against him, and if he does, will Farage be punished with a 10-day plus suspension necessary to trigger a recall petition for a second by-election?
And perhaps more importantly, in the run-up to Reform’s party conference at the beginning of September, will Farage be able to move the public conversation away from financial questions and back on to his preferred territory of immigration and crime?
The events of recent weeks – including mega-dinghies crossing the Channel and Andy Burnham’s flipflopping over prison releases – will at least give him some hope that the latter is possible.
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