The major climate phenomenon El Niño could bring a wet, stormy winter to the UK and risks disrupting vital global supply chains as experts warn of its “unprecedented” strength.
American scientists have predicted the high likelihood of a “super” El Niño, the most powerful since 1950, with the potential for flooding and drought in some countries.
El Niño is part of a natural cycle and forms when warmer waters spread across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is associated with widespread changes in the climate system that can last for up to a year.
It typically occurs every nine to 12 years for up to a year alternating with La Niña and cooler Pacific temperatures water temperatures, as part of a cycle called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Enso).
Despite occurring far from the UK, its effects are felt worldwide – potentially exacerbating the impact of climate change.
A milder, wetter and stormier UK
El Niño will bring wetter and milder weather to the UK through the autumn and winter, says Professor Ilan Kelman of UCL’s department of risk and disaster reduction.
He said: “There’s nothing definite, but in general we would expect a milder, wetter, and stormier autumn, a colder winter, and then a possibility of a hotter summer next year.”
El Niño will strengthen towards the end of the year with a 97 per cent chance it will last through early spring 2027, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).
The El Niño of 1998 is the strongest of this century so far and saw more storms in the UK and the warmest year on record at the time.
Large parts of the country have now gone months without any significant rainfall (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)Dr Alison Ming, research fellow in the Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics Group at Cambridge University, said: “What we do know is global thermal temperatures are rising, so you have an increase to your baseline.
“The super El Niño is likely to also give you another sixth of a degree increase on top of that to your global depth temperatures.”
However, she warned that the direct impact of El Niño on Europe is “a lot more uncertain” due to its distance.
The Met Office warns that El Niño is “just one (albeit very important) influence on climate variability”.
It adds that the weather response to El Niño “should not be seen as inevitable” and “should be regarded as shifting the odds in favour of the typical response which may, for example, increase the risk of heavy rainfall and consequent damage in a particular region or season”.
Airplane turbulence and supply chains disrupted
The more severe impact of El Niño on other countries could also have a knock-on effect on the economy and daily life in the UK.
Kelman said: “Perhaps more of concern is that El Niño definitely affects the weather in other places around the world, and so that can impact UK supply chains.
“We may see certain weather happening elsewhere, which then can lead to perhaps turbulence when we’re flying, perhaps increased flooding in certain places, which impacts electronic supply chains, and we may see consequences for imported food.”
Rice, sugar or coffee imports could be affected by potential flooding in South America. The shift of rainfall brought on by El Niño can also cause severe droughts in South East Asia and Australia.
“There is always a potential, for example, whether it’s wine or more exotic fruits and vegetables, to be less common on the UK shelves”, added Kelman.
Major floods near Bangkok in 2011 showed the potential impact on global electronic and manufacturing supply chains with a World Bank estimate of $46.5bn (£34.5bn) in total economic damages.
What is a super El Niño?
Scientists at Noaa announced in June that a new El Niño phase had started after recording sea surface temperatures more than 0.5°C above average in the central tropical Pacific.
They gave an 81 per cent chance that between October and December the occurrence “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950”.
Dr Ming said: “This is unprecedented. This is a very, very strong El Niño event.”
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