With the 2026 FCS football season fast approaching, we’re making predictions for the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Top 25 teams abound, led by South Dakota State.
There’s a different feeling surrounding the Missouri Valley Football Conference title race following North Dakota State’s departure to the FBS.
Make no mistake, South Dakota State is the team to beat, having won more conference titles than NDSU this decade (four to three) and owning just as many FCS national titles (two) and championship game appearances (three) as the Bison.
But NDSU’s two-decade dominance loomed above the rest of the MVFC. With the Bison gone, the likes of Illinois State off a national runner-up finish, Youngstown State, North Dakota, South Dakota and Southern Illinois – all joining SDSU in the top 16 of the Stats Perform FCS Preseasion Top 25 Poll – have legitimate reason to feel they can capture the conference title.
An MVFC team has played in the national championship game in a remarkable 15 straight seasons. The last title NDSU or SDSU didn’t win at least a share of the title occurred in 2010 (Northern Iowa).
Each team capsule below pits FCS senior editor Craig Haley’s predicted order up against the Opta projection model. The supercomputer, if you will, incorporates TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and other factors while running thousands of simulations to determine an average number of wins and losses per team.
2026 Missouri Valley Football Conference Predictions
1. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2025 Record: 9-5, 4-4 (T-6th) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 3 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 2 (1) Opta Average Projected Wins: 9.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 3 at Illinois StateSDSU slumped only after quarterback Chase Mason was injured last season (8-1 record as a starter with 21 total touchdowns in those nine games). The Jackrabbits had the second-most Stats Perform FCS Preseason All-Americans with six, led by returning first-team offensive lineman Quinten Christensen. Their 14 consecutive winning seasons and appearances in the FCS playoffs mark the active highs.
2. Illinois State Redbirds
2025 Record: 12-5, 5-3 (T-3rd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 4 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 9 (2) Opta Average Projected Wins: 8.0 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 3 vs. South Dakota StateLinebacker Tye Niekamp (346 career tackles) enters his final season as a two-time first-team All-American and a leading Buck Buchanan Award candidate. Returnee Beckham Pellant and USC transfer Gage Roy have been part of one of the more important QB battles of the FCS offseason, but offensive weapons abound for the new starter.
3. Youngstown State Penguins
2025 Record: 8-5, 5-3 (T-3rd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 9 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 16 (5) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.5 (12 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 14 vs. Illinois StateBeau Brungard, the 2025 Walter Payton Award recipient, became the third FCS QB to have both 3,000 passing yards (3,234) and 1,000 rushing yards (1,468) in the same season, accounting for a whopping 54 TDs as well. NFL prospect Desmeal Leigh (6-7, 325) paves the way at left tackle. On the defensive line, edge rusher Mike Wells (15.0 TFLs, 10.5 sacks) is the one opponents fear.
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5 days ago Craig Haley4. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
2025 Record: 8-6, 5-3 (T-3rd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 10 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 10 (3) Opta Average Projected Wins: 7.9 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 17 vs. South Dakota StateLance Rucker (15.0 TFLs, 11.5 sacks) and Kaden Vig (6.0, 5.5) form one of the FCS’ top pass rushing duos, while Jerry Kaminski’s 26 TD passes are tied for the second most among returning players. Winners of 34 of their last 41 games inside the Alerus Center, the Fighting Hawks changed the negative road narrative with their most wins (four) since 2016.
5. South Dakota Coyotes
2025 Record: 10-5, 6-2 (2nd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 12 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 12 (4) Opta Average Projected Wins: 7.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 31 at South Dakota StateThe Coyotes are one of three FCS programs that had 10+ wins in each of the last three seasons (also NDSU and Villanova), but they have a new coach, Matt Vitzthum, for the third consecutive season. In replacing a 3½-year starting QB Aidan Bouman, their offense will lean on RB Charles Pierre Jr., who missed much of last season after a banner 2024 campaign (1,434 scrimmage yards, 18 touchdowns).
6. Southern Illinois Salukis
2025 Record: 7-5, 4-4 (T-6th) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 16 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 23 (6) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.8 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 12 vs. Southeast MissouriWith QB DJ Williams, a 2026 Walter Payton Award preseason nominee, ranking fifth in the FCS in total offensive yards per game (307.8), the Salukis increased their scoring by two TDs per game for a 36.4-point average (their highest since 2007). Linebackers Andrew Behm and Chris Presto have combined for 252 tackles over the last two seasons.
7. Northern Iowa Panthers
2025 Record: 3-9, 1-7 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 71 (7) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.4 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 10 vs. North DakotaQB Jaxon Dailey previewed the new season with a banner performance (25 of 34 for 352 yards and two TDs; 52 rush yards) in last year’s season finale against YSU. Linebacker Kolben Miller and safety Jordan McClom anchor the defense.
8. Indiana State Sycamores
2025 Record: 3-9, 1-7 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 77 (8) Opta Average Projected Wins: 4.4 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 10 vs. Youngstown StateIt always starts up front, and the Sycamores have experience on both lines. That will help dual-threat QB Elijah Owens spread the ball as well as Nic Yatsko (82 tackles as a redshirt freshman) patrolling in the secondary.
9. Murray State Racers
2025 Record: 1-11, 1-7 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 104 (9) Opta Average Projected Wins: 2.7 (12 games) Circle the Date: Aug. 27 vs. Eastern IllinoisThe Racers ended a 20-game losing streak with a season-ending win over Indiana State, but they’re a mere 6-40 over the last four seasons. Safety Dylan Rowsey ranked third in the FCS in tackles per game (11.6), but first in solo tackles (89).
Top photo, from left, via Youngstown State, North Dakota and South Dakota State Athletics. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
Missouri Valley Football Conference Predictions: SDSU, Illinois State at Front of a Deep Title Race Opta Analyst.
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