“It always works out” is never a reassuring message to receive during a crisis, especially when it comes from someone who has declared multiple bankruptcies and launched a failed coup.
Iran announced on Monday that it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane that carries around a fifth of the world’s oil supply, until the U.S. agrees to its demands, which include the lifting of sanctions, the payment of reparations and the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and ending the blockade that Trump believes will ultimately lead to victory. The strait had previously been reopened in response to ceasefire agreements. Now, Iran—not Trump—is playing hardball. And there’s little reason to believe that even the economic chokehold Iran is currently facing will cause its leaders to bend anytime soon, especially since they’re well aware of the damage that the war—in particular its steroidal impact on the price of gas, fertilizer, and other essential goods—is doing to the GOP’s bid to retain control of Congress in the November midterms.
The war in Iran is already, strategically speaking, one of the biggest foreign-policy blunders in American history. Iran will likely emerge from the conflict, whenever it ends, stronger than before. The U.S., meanwhile, has lost much of what was left of its global credibility, along with the majority of its supply of munitions. But the war is also the capstone of one of the biggest political blunders in American history. Less than two years ago, voters elected Trump because they were frustrated about the state of the economy. Since retaking office, he has done seemingly everything he can to make that economy even worse—and make an ever-increasing number of those voters hate him.
But the biggest story of Trump’s second term is arguably its simplest. Voters returned Trump to power because prices were high, even though the incumbent administration was not really at fault. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation was rampant everywhere in the world. Indeed, by most macroeconomic indicators, the Biden administration had done a comparably stellar job. That didn’t matter. Voters were pissed off about paying too much—so pissed off, in fact, that they re-elected the person who had failed to responsibly manage the pandemic and then tried to cling to power after he lost in 2020, notably by ginning up a mob that intended to hang his vice president.
And so here we are. Even Trump’s voters are fed up. Dean Rosenbrook, a farmer who recently attended a Trump rally in Wisconsin, said he planned on voting for Republican Congressman Dean Van Orden, who is backed by Trump, but that he wants the Iran war to end because fuel and fertilizer prices are “killing us.” The economy, meanwhile, is sputtering. July’s jobs report, released last week, unexpectedly showed that the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs that month, while totals from May and June were revised down by 100,000. For the first time in over a decade, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that a plurality of voters say they prefer Democratic stewardship over the economy. Trump’s overall economic numbers are historically bad and have fallen 31 points since he returned to office.
Congressional Republicans, particularly those in vulnerable seats, are campaigning in the constant shadow of these political storm clouds. But Iran’s leaders can see them, too, and that’s why they’re playing hardball over the Strait of Hormuz. All Trump can offer, meanwhile, is hollow reassurance that “it always works out.” That adage may be true for him, but it rarely works out for the people caught in his blast radius.
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